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the latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms are freshly released, as follows:

citic securities: the impact of external signals intensifies, while internal signals still need to be observed

after external signals become clearer, market liquidity and extremely pessimistic sentiment are expected to stabilize. first, the central bank regulated the treasury bond yield curve and carried out open market treasury bond trading operations in august, pushing up long-term interest rates, breaking the previous cycle of "long-term bond interest rates down → dividend assets are more attractive" in a-shares, and affecting the allocation rhythm of long-term funds to dividend products. secondly, mainly affected by the weak real estate market and the downward earnings cycle, foreign capital is less willing to increase its allocation to a-shares. recently, according to refinitiv data, we have observed that the outflow rate of allocation-type foreign capital is slowing down marginally. thirdly, the issuance of public fund products continues to be sluggish, and the pressure of net redemption is still there. according to the channel survey of citic securities, the average net redemption rate of the existing sample public fund products in the past three weeks was 0.94%, which was higher than the level from the end of may to mid-august. finally, the active fund positions have been adjusted, and the wait-and-see sentiment is quite serious. as of august 30, the positions of the sample active private equity fund products were 70.2%, which has fluctuated between 69% and 71% for five consecutive weeks, significantly lower than the median level of 75.3% since 2017, but still some distance from the low of 62.5% in february this year. as the internal and external signals become clearer during the key window period, coupled with the release of the mid-year report, the change in dividend expectations, and the easing of market liquidity pressure, it is expected that the extremely pessimistic investor sentiment will stabilize in september.

the market style tends to be balanced. it is recommended to continue to hold dividends and increase the allocation to overseas markets. in terms of specific products, it is expected that the dividend strategy will continue to diverge. the dividend low-volatility assets will continue to focus on hydropower and nuclear power with stable free cash return rates, and property insurance with stable premium growth. in addition, domestic exports will not deteriorate as quickly as the market expects. the excellent companies in the overseas market that have fully reflected the us recession trade have regained their allocation value. in the future, as the three major signals of policy, price and external factors continue to be gradually verified, the focus of allocation will shift to high-performance growth and domestic demand. it is recommended to focus on manufacturing leaders such as electronics (intelligent driving and semiconductor autonomous control), machinery (equipment renewal and transformation and overseas competition), pharmaceuticals after the anti-corruption impact is fully priced (industrial integration, overseas breakthroughs), and hong kong-listed internet and consumer leading companies.

citic construction investment: three bottom conditions are in place, waiting for an opportunity to layout

overall, the market has bottom conditions. the fed will start cutting interest rates in september, and the domestic monetary policy space will open up. the central bank has said this week that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts; the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, and local governments have intensively issued detailed rules for old-for-new exchanges. the policy has further increased the direction of expanding domestic demand. at present, the sales of automobiles and home appliances have improved. taking into account the base and the effect of policy efforts, it is expected that q3 will be the bottom of earnings. at the end of the third quarter, the market will gradually include the expectation of improved year-on-year earnings data in q4. the pessimistic expectations reflected by the short-term market have exceeded those in early february. on the one hand, the equity risk premium of wind all a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) has exceeded that in early february, second only to the end of 2018, and is at a historical extreme level; on the other hand, the median increase or decrease and equal-weighted increase or decrease of all a constituent stocks have turned negative since the low point in early february. important bottom features have also appeared at the recent trading level. first, the turnover rate measured by the circulating market value has approached or is equivalent to several major bottom levels in history; second, the sectors such as banks that performed relatively strongly in the early stage have obviously made up for the decline in the past two weeks, and the decline of strong stocks is often a common signal at the end of market adjustment. judging from various aspects such as profitability, valuation, and trading characteristics, the market has already met the bottom conditions.

waiting for opportunities to deploy, the structure follows three clues. since it will take time to confirm that the overall domestic demand has bottomed out, the recent allocation ideas will continue unchanged, and investment opportunities will be more from the three clues of economic reality improvement, economic elasticity, and valuation repair. first, the economic reality improvement of new clues such as equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, pay attention to the sustainability of improvement in passenger cars/electric two-wheeled vehicles, home appliances and other sectors under the increase of local trade-in subsidy standards; second, the subsequent economic elasticity of the domestic demand-related sectors with resilience in the 24-year interim report, including education, insurance, accessories, power equipment, etc., at this stage, the leading companies have a higher winning rate, which will be further expanded with the improvement of domestic demand; third, the valuation repair of the growth direction with its own industrial logic that is expected to bottom out, pay attention to the military industry whose orders have begun to be released from q3, the power battery that repairs the energy storage demand during the stocking peak season, and the consumer electronics/semiconductors that are catalyzed by new products during the stocking peak season.

cicc: a-share bottom characteristics emerge, confidence restoration needs more positive factors to support

the market shows many bottom characteristics, but confidence restoration still needs more positive factors to support. the a-share market has continued to be weak recently, and the adjustment range of major broad-based indexes has increased. the overall market lacks a main line, and the previous strong sectors have experienced a rebound. from the perspective of the recent market environment: the profitability of a-share listed companies has yet to be restored. investors expect further increase in stable growth policies. overseas disturbance factors have increased marginally. looking ahead to the future market, although there are still many suppressive factors both internally and externally in the near future, the market itself is in the value range, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in positive factors during the index adjustment period. the market has some bottom characteristics recently: the turnover rate of a shares calculated by free float market value has dropped to the historical bottom level of 1.5%; at the valuation level, the dividend rate of the csi 300 exceeds the 10-year treasury bond rate by 1.1 percentage points, and the forward valuation of the csi 300 index is near the historical bottom of one standard deviation, and the market has good valuation attractiveness; the rebound of strong stocks is also often a common phenomenon at the historical stage bottom. follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of fiscal spending and the marginal impact of the fed's interest rate cut rhythm on my country's monetary policy, exchange rate, and capital market.

in terms of allocation, the attractiveness of the dividend sector has rebounded after adjustments, and more attention needs to be paid to the fundamentals of the numerator and the sustainability of dividends. since mid-july, consumer electronics, semiconductors, etc. have adjusted by more than 10%, and the valuations are not high. in addition, the consumer electronics sector may have more news catalysts recently, and there may be a phased market trend. pay attention to the field of technological innovation, especially sectors with independent industrial logic. export chains and globally priced resources may be differentiated after a short-term correction due to overseas fluctuations.

china merchants securities: pursuing high intrinsic returns and local economic growth will remain the choice for the subsequent market

at the end of august, as the performance disclosure ended, the performance of style industries changed. the dividend index adjusted significantly, and banks also accelerated downward after 8/28. during the rebound at the end of august, the growth style became dominant, and the consumption, technology, and manufacturing sectors rose significantly. the reason for this is that, on the one hand, dividend assets gave up gains due to market concerns about the sustainability of earnings, and the increase in the dividend ratio of a shares reduced the cost-effectiveness of dividends. on the other hand, after the performance was released, the market began to consider new directions for layout. the consumption sector performed well due to the superior performance of the sector and the continuous increase in policies, the strong exports of manufacturing and the recovery of domestic demand, and the tmt and pharmaceutical sectors performed well due to the release of new products, the fed's interest rate cuts, and the stabilization of medium-term data.

looking ahead, we believe that current earnings tend to be low growth and low volatility, and the pursuit of high intrinsic returns and local prosperity is still the choice of the subsequent market. we recommend paying attention to the direction that is expected to stabilize first: 1) benefiting from the "golden september and silver october" peak season, the mid-autumn festival and national day catalysis, and the consumer service sector stimulated by domestic demand policies, such as automobiles, home appliances, and commerce and retail; 2) global energy equipment renewal demand continues to boost, and infrastructure and investment demand in emerging markets remain high. against this background, mid-to-high-end manufacturing industries that are still driven by investment and exports, such as power grid equipment, mechanical equipment, etc.; 3) the interest rate cut in the third quarter is expected to land, and liquidity is expected to gradually ease, superimposed on the technology and medical sectors driven by ai concepts and industrial trends, such as electronics, medicine, etc.

minsheng securities: volatility returns, respond rationally

the recent rise in the linkage and volatility of major global asset classes has once again warned that the fragility of the current financial system is far greater than the supply and demand fundamentals of the macro economy. it should be pointed out that in a high-volatility environment, the current "high-low cut" strategy is not a medium-term response. in fact, no field can be immune, but investors can prepare to find assets after the storm. the moment of unveiling is coming, and waiting will eventually pay off. the volatility of global risk assets has once again exposed the fragility of the financial system. our annual problem in "noah's ark" is also about to usher in the moment of unveiling, that is, financial instability will eventually drag down the resilience of the physical assets, thereby bringing more drastic fluctuations in risky assets; or the demand for maintaining financial stability will bring opportunities for the price of physical assets. if it is the former, due to the lack of fundamental support, the "high-low cut" strategy is also easy to be "broken down". in contrast, the physical side with a more dominant supply and demand pattern may be the "last barrier"; and if it is the latter, after adjustments, the previous mainline assets that have been freed from the constraints of excessively high relative returns will also usher in configuration opportunities again. in an environment of high volatility, no sector is immune, but investors can be prepared to look for assets that will survive after the storm passes.

specific allocation suggestions: as the most resilient link, upstream resources are still our top recommendations: non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), energy (oil, coal), shipping (oil shipping, shipbuilding, dry bulk). second, the capital return of the whole society has not yet seen a turning point of systematic regression, and the adjustment of "dividends" is limited. in an environment where global risk asset volatility is amplified, the allocation is still meaningful: banks, railways, gas and ports. third, after the global recession expectations have been reversed, china's manufacturing is still a dominant industry, with marginal stabilization of external demand, household goods, home appliances, and consumer electronics that are also in the process of clearing production capacity, intermediate products (special steel) driven by production in emerging markets, and capital goods (instruments and meters, general equipment) under the restart of investment.

boc securities: the fed's first rate cut is expected to help stabilize a-share risk appetite

at present, the us stock market has entered the stage of fermentation of recession expectations on the eve of interest rate cuts. the fundamental data has gradually shown signs of marginal weakening, but the fed has not yet cut interest rates. whether the first cut is 25bp or 50bp has become the biggest focus of market attention. combined with the trend of us stocks and us bonds on the eve of the first cuts, the volatility of risky assets increased significantly in the first 1-2 months before the first cut. for a-shares, the market has continued to shrink and consolidate at a low level in the past two weeks. under the influence of earnings expectations, the state-owned banks that had previously performed well have suffered significant adjustments this week. looking ahead to next week, domestic inflation and economic data will be disclosed soon. judging from the high-frequency data, domestic demand may still be weak in the third quarter. the real estate chain and consumption are still the main factors restricting domestic demand. we need to pay close attention to the intensity and timeliness of domestic policies this year. in addition, apple's press conference will be held next week, and its catalytic effect on the ai ​​industry chain remains to be observed.

in terms of allocation direction, the excess returns in the short-term dividend direction may converge. the first rate cut by the federal reserve at the end of september is expected to open up space for domestic monetary policy. as market risk appetite stabilizes, technology stocks catalyzed by the ai ​​industry chain or cyclical stocks driven by expectations of stable growth are expected to usher in a phased recovery. there may be a certain demand for equilibrium in the short-term market style.

china securities: how do you view the recent market style switching?

since the beginning of this year, my country's economic growth has slowed down, the market has gradually entered the stock era, and financial supervision has gradually tightened, making dividend assets with stable and high dividend characteristics more popular. however, in the past two weeks, the "grouping" of banks has collapsed to a certain extent, and the market style has changed significantly. we believe that the previous excessive concentration of funds in the dividend sector, resulting in crowded transactions, and the recent excessive concerns of institutions about some media reports have caused concentrated adjustments, which are the main reasons for this round of style switching. although in the short term, some small and medium-sized market capitalization and "fruit chain" technology sectors may be active repeatedly, considering that the current determination of the total policy and the direction of strong financial supervision have not changed, it is expected that the relatively stable style such as dividends will still be the dominant style in the second half of the year. at this point in time, it is recommended that institutional investors focus on the utility segments with the attributes of "new quality productivity", such as nuclear power and telecommunications operators, in order to achieve "both offense and defense".

the current stability of the aggregate policy and the strength of financial supervision have not changed, and the overall market outlook for the second half of the year remains stable. in terms of allocation, we recommend focusing on opportunities in public utilities, core military industry, nuclear power, and telecom operators.

haitong securities: finding configuration clues from the interim report

overall, the improvement of medium-term fundamentals and the easing of overseas liquidity are expected to push the market center up. the recent phased weakening of the macro environment has cooled the sentiment of a-share investors. the market has continued to rest and accumulate momentum since late may this year. looking to the future, both domestic macro and micro fundamentals and overseas liquidity are expected to improve in the second half of the year, which may push the market index center up compared with the first half of the year. from a fundamental perspective, the implementation of subsequent policies to stabilize growth is expected to promote the recovery of macro and micro fundamentals.

there are three clues worth noting in the interim report. first, the high-end manufacturing sector has performed well in terms of profitability under the resonance of domestic and foreign demand. second, the profitability of the upstream resource sector has significantly improved, benefiting from the global commodity price increase and the domestic factor marketization reform. third, the profitability of the consumption sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and social services has been boosted by the improvement of pork prices and service consumption. the stable growth policy has promoted the improvement of fundamentals, and the loose overseas liquidity is expected to push up the market center. china's advantageous manufacturing may become the main line.

huatai securities: at this point in time, the bottom of the a-share correction has begun to take shape

the market bottom position in early february this year was relatively solid: data show that the current funding risk is lower than at the beginning of the year, and the recent recovery of industrial capital holdings/repurchase plan data also provides a bottoming force for funds. the current leveraged funds liquidation pressure clearance range and the potential correction range of the csi 300 after excluding banks both show that the market bottom position in early february is relatively solid; the key to the rhythm lies in: whether the social financing data next week can show a slowdown in credit contraction, whether the potential fiscal efforts in 3q can reverse the market's forward credit cycle expectations, and whether the improvement of funding structure such as the recovery of financing activity/industrial capital turning to net holdings can occur. at this point in time, the space bottom of the a-share correction has begun to take shape, but the time bottom needs to pay attention to the subsequent credit data release and the follow-up strength of domestic monetary policy after the fed's interest rate cut cycle begins.

in terms of allocation, it is recommended to grasp four clues with high winning rate: 1. ah premium convergence - increase allocation of hong kong stocks; 2. a50 with stable roe and dividends and low valuation, and insurance with relatively good fundamentals and chips; 3. industries with two-way improvement in supply and demand - general automation/shipping/communication equipment/inverter/packaging and printing/papermaking, etc.; 4. expectations of interest rate cuts are rising - pharmaceuticals and hong kong-listed internet companies that will strongly benefit from the interest rate cut.

guotai junan: in a low-risk preference environment, the current pricing anchor for industry comparison is cash flow

for 24 years, the total volume has been expected to fluctuate at the bottom, the market risk preference remains low and the stock risk premium is high, which means that the forward cash flow of the numerator is subject to a greater discount, and investment focuses more on the current eps, the quality of earnings and the real shareholder return. the style is concentrated in the high dividend strategy and the free cash flow strategy. looking forward to the next stage, the repair of the market risk preference center still needs to see positive progress at the expectation level - especially the positive signals in the two major areas of the supply and demand pattern of the traditional real estate chain and the manufacturing chain, as well as the normalization of the market micro-transaction structure and pricing mechanism. before that, operating cash flow is still the pricing anchor for industry comparison.

combining earnings, cash flow and mid-year positions of institutions, we pay attention to changes in allocation strategies in three categories of industries. 1. high-prosperity and high-position tracks, continue to hold: semiconductors/shipbuilding/auto parts/innovative drugs/precious metals/electricity/highways, etc.; 2. operating cash flow recovery, low positions or long-term clearing tracks, actively deploy: insurance/petrochemicals/chemicals/batteries/rail transportation equipment/education/leisure food, etc.; 3. high-position sectors with flawed performance growth quality, remain cautious: consumer electronics/home appliances/breeding/industrial metals, etc.