Has the Middle East retreated from the brink of war?
2024-08-27
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Our correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao Our correspondent Zhen XiangAfter Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire early on the morning of the 25th, both sides claimed that the attacks on each other's targets were successful and reserved room for further actions. This gave some observers hope that the situation in the Middle East would cool down. Agence France-Presse said that Hezbollah said its operation had been completed, and Israel quickly revoked the state of emergency declared in the early morning of the 25th. Qatar's Al Jazeera believes that the situation seems to have calmed down, at least temporarily. Analysts say that Hezbollah and Israel are trying to avoid dragging the entire region into a full-scale war. CNN said that for nearly a month, the people of Israel and Lebanon have been preparing for the expansion of the war. After the incident on the 25th, the Middle East may have temporarily avoided the risk of going to a full-scale war, but as long as the conflict in Gaza continues, the situation in the entire region will always be as dangerous as "being held at the tip of a knife." At the same time, Israel must continue to wait for another "danger" to occur: Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), in Tehran. On the 26th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on social media that Iran’s response to Israel’s "terrorist acts" was affirmative, accurate and planned, and that "Iran is not afraid of tensions, nor does it seek to escalate tensions."Israel and Hezbollah both want to cool downIsrael and Hezbollah launched mutual bombing early on the 25th, which is considered to be the "most serious escalation of hostility between the two sides since 2006". According to Al Jazeera, on the evening of the 25th local time, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah, delivered a televised speech on this matter, which included five key points: Hezbollah hopes to avoid military escalation, the main target of the attack is Israel's intelligence base, the attack avoided Israeli civilian targets, the attack was delayed to give time for ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, and refuted a series of Israeli accusations.Since October 8 last year, the day after a new round of conflict between Israel and Hamas broke out, Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire, and people have been worried that the fighting will escalate into a regional war and involve Iran and the United States. Al Jazeera said that this fear was particularly exacerbated by the killings of Hezbollah military commander Shukur and Hamas leader Haniyeh last month. But Hezbollah's attack on Israel on the 25th "seems to be carried out to avoid a large-scale counterattack from Israel." Nasrallah said the attack was successful and he was satisfied with the result.Australia's "Dialogue" website concluded that both Israel and Hezbollah claimed that their attacks on each other's targets were successful and downplayed their own losses. Israel said that Hezbollah's attack on its intelligence base did not cause any damage; Hezbollah said that Israel only fired into an "empty valley." Israel claimed to have destroyed "thousands" of rockets fired by Hezbollah and thwarted a large-scale attack; Hezbollah said that it only fired more than 300 "Katyusha" rockets and then sent drones to attack.Lebanese local media "Orient-Today" believes that although Hezbollah's first phase of retaliation is impressive, there is no sign that it has caused significant losses to Israel, and the retaliation has not targeted civilian sites or public infrastructure. Hezbollah did not deploy heavy artillery to avenge the assassination of its military leader, but used "Katyusha" rockets, which are inaccurate and cause little damage. In the event of a preemptive strike by Israel, Israel may be satisfied with the "military failure" caused to Hezbollah rather than launching violent retaliation, which could escalate the conflict into a full-scale war.Al Jazeera reported that Nasrallah accused the Israeli government of "hiding losses and casualties" in his speech. He also said that since Shukur was killed, Lebanon has been filled with fear of a full-scale war with Israel. "Now, Lebanon can breathe a sigh of relief."Israel's attitude is similar. The New York Times said that although Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared at the beginning of the cabinet meeting on the afternoon of the 25th that the attack on Hezbollah was "not over yet", Israeli social life had basically returned to normal at this time. The report said that after Israel and Hezbollah launched mutual attacks, both sides immediately claimed to have achieved a certain victory, and then immediately expressed their intention to control the escalation of the situation.The Wall Street Journal believes that the two sides "flexed their muscles" in this exchange of fire, but initially it only caused a small number of casualties and limited losses. If both Israel and Hezbollah can exercise relative restraint, the low casualties in this exchange of fire will help the two sides return to a state of low-intensity sporadic conflict and avoid the all-out war that the United States has been worried about for months.Iran is another big variableAgence France-Presse said that Hezbollah was founded in Lebanon after Israel besieged the Lebanese capital Beirut in 1982 and has become an important political player in Lebanon and the Middle East. The report said that Hezbollah is funded and armed by Iran and is the most prominent player in the "Axis of Resistance", a regional alliance against Israel, which includes Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas and others.The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said that both Israel and Hezbollah said they were unwilling to escalate the situation, but both sides were ready. Compared with Hamas, Hezbollah is more powerful. It has about 150,000 rockets, some of which have a range that can cover the entire Israel. Some Hezbollah militants have participated in the Syrian war and are well-trained and better equipped than Hamas. Analysts believe that the last real war between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006. The West is worried that if Israel now fights Hezbollah again, the situation in the Middle East may get out of control.Iran is considered another major variable that affects the development of the situation. On the 26th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani posted on social media that Hezbollah's attacks on Israel "penetrated deep into the occupied territories" and "the strategic balance has fundamentally changed to the disadvantage of Israel." The Associated Press reported that Iran's foreign minister said after a phone call with the Italian foreign minister on the 26th that the country would "definitely" retaliate against Israel.CNN said that the risk of a potential showdown between Iran and Israel is still increasing, and Iran's "open threats" constitute psychological warfare. As long as the Gaza conflict continues, no matter how low the interest of the warring parties is in the conflict, the situation in the entire region will always be as dangerous as "being held at the tip of a knife" and will be affected by the next misjudgment.The Guardian said that the biggest concern now is that a series of conflicts could eventually turn into a regional war, with Iran's allies in Yemen, Syria and Iraq all involved, and the United States and its allies also responding militarily. The ultimate nightmare is a direct conflict between Iran and Israel.Gaza ceasefire talks still unsuccessfulThe bad news on the 26th did not stop there. Reuters and other media outlets quoted sources as saying that no agreement was reached during the Gaza ceasefire talks held in Cairo on the 25th, and neither Hamas nor Israel agreed to the multiple compromise proposals put forward by the mediators.The protracted conflict in Gaza is the root cause of the intensification of the conflict among multiple parties. Nasrallah said on the 25th that one of the main reasons why Hezbollah did not launch a retaliatory attack on Israel until that day was to leave time for the success of the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. He said: "Our goal is to end (Israel's) aggression against Gaza, so we gave it enough opportunities, but after so long, it is obvious that Netanyahu is putting forward new conditions and the Americans are cooperating with him. All this is a waste of time, so there is no reason to delay any further."NBC reported on the 26th that the United States is still working on a ceasefire negotiation in Gaza. A senior U.S. official optimistically told the media that the talks were still "constructive" and were conducted in the spirit of reaching a "final and feasible agreement" between the parties, and that the negotiations would continue in the next few days.Many media reports show that the key sticking point in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations is Israel's request to station troops in the "Philadelphia Corridor" bordering southern Gaza and Egypt. Egyptian sources said that the mediators proposed a variety of alternatives, but none of the parties accepted them."Egypt said it would not accept Israel deploying troops on its Gaza border," AFP reported. Egypt's official media quoted a high-level source on the 26th as saying that Cairo "reiterated to all parties that it would not accept any Israeli presence in the strategic 'Philadelphia Corridor'." At the same time, Israel's bombing of the Gaza Strip continues. "The people of Gaza have lost everything," the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East posted on social media on the 26th, saying that the lives of people in the Gaza Strip have become "a never-ending tragedy," "humanity has been completely deprived," and "families everywhere continue to be forced to flee, leaving behind their homes and belongings. All they can do now is try to survive." ▲
