500 days later, Sudan is trapped in "hunger"
2024-08-27
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On August 26, local time, a civil war in Sudan in northeastern Africa officially entered its 500th day. The civil war broke out on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces. The war started in the capital Khartoum and then gradually spread to other areas.
The civil war has brought great suffering to the Sudanese people. Recently, the United Nations said that famine has occurred in Sudan's North Darfur region - the first confirmed famine in the world since 2017. The famine crisis is still expanding across Sudan. UN officials said that more than 25.6 million people in the country are at risk of acute hunger and 8.5 million are at risk of emergency hunger.
However, the war has not yet ended. Last week, a new round of ceasefire negotiations on Sudan’s armed conflict ended in Geneva, Switzerland, but no agreement was reached on issues such as ceasefire. UNHCR officials told the Beijing News that if the civil war continues, the lives of tens of thousands of Sudanese people will be in danger.
On July 24, local time, in eastern Sudan, the Sudanese armed conflict continued and displaced people lived in refugee camps. Photo/IC photo
Famine sweeping the country
As the largest agricultural producer in Africa and the Middle East, Sudan has long been seen as a potential "breadbasket" in the region, but now hunger is sweeping the country.
On August 1 this year, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the United Nations World Food Programme's Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) project officially confirmed that famine had occurred in the Zam Zam refugee camp in North Darfur, Sudan. The FRC report showed that based on data obtained since January this year, acute malnutrition and mortality rates in the Zam Zam refugee camp have exceeded the IPC threshold for famine.
Xinhua News Agency quoted Reuters as saying that this is the third time that famine has occurred somewhere in the world since the IPC project was launched in 2004. The first time the FRC declared famine was in 2011, when nearly 500,000 people in Somalia fell into famine due to conflict, drought and insufficient rainfall. The most recent one was in 2017, when 80,000 people in parts of Unity State in South Sudan faced famine after three years of civil war.
Over the past year or so, as the conflict continues, Sudan's humanitarian crisis has been worsening. In particular, the number of refugees in the Zamzam refugee camp near El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, has swelled from 300,000 to nearly 500,000 in a matter of weeks. These refugees mainly refer to those who were forced to flee the war in Sudan.
According to the FRC report, famine has persisted in Zamzam refugee camp since July this year and may continue until at least October. Although only Zamzam refugee camp has been officially declared to be in famine, the report points out that as long as the conflict continues and humanitarian aid continues to be restricted, "many other parts of Sudan remain at risk of famine."
In an interview with the Beijing News, Assadullah Nasrullah, spokesman for the UN Refugee Agency for Sudan, said that the famine in the Zamzam refugee camp is a tragic impact of Sudan's ongoing war.
"In the midst of conflict, people cannot produce food. At the same time, humanitarian access is severely restricted in many places, which prevents millions of people from obtaining necessary life-saving assistance, further exacerbating the local humanitarian disaster." Nasrallah said that although famine has been confirmed in only one place, for the Sudanese people who have been forced to be displaced within the country, this is a clear indication that the country's food crisis is worsening.
The famine crisis in Sudan continues to spread. According to CCTV News, on August 13, local time, the Shilu faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (Northern Bureau) issued a statement announcing that famine had occurred in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states under its control. The statement said that there are about 3 million people living in these two regions. Currently, more than 20% of households are facing serious food shortages, and more than 30% of children are malnourished, reaching the United Nations' recognition standard for famine. On August 22, the Shilu faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (Northern Bureau) issued another statement announcing that 109 people in South Kordofan had died of malnutrition.
After the outbreak of the civil war in Sudan, the United Nations said that Sudan is facing one of the most severe humanitarian disasters in the world in recent years. At present, half of Sudan’s 45 million people are in urgent need of external assistance, and more than 12 million people have been forced to displace, including nearly 2 million refugees who have poured into neighboring countries such as Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.
In May this year, officials of the World Food Program pointed out that due to severe food shortages, many people in Darfur, Sudan, were forced to eat grass or peanut shells. As of now, 25.6 million people in the country are facing the risk of acute hunger, 8.5 million people are facing the risk of emergency hunger, and a total of 13 regions are at risk of falling into famine. Some food security experts are worried that by the end of this year, 2.5 million people in Sudan may die of hunger.
International aid workers have repeatedly pointed out that humanitarian aid supplies are either blocked by Sudanese armed forces or looted by the Rapid Support Forces. However, both warring parties deny obstructing humanitarian aid. In addition to the obstruction of aid, Sudan entered the rainy season in July. There are concerns that Sudan, which is already on the front line of climate change, will face heavy rains and floods, which will further aggravate the risks of food insecurity and disease.
Nasrallah said that since the outbreak of the conflict, UNHCR has been working with partners to provide humanitarian assistance to Sudanese internally displaced persons and Sudanese refugees fleeing to neighboring countries, who are in urgent need of food, clean water, medical services, etc. "But as the crisis continues, the number of internally displaced persons in Sudan and refugees crossing the border into neighboring countries is increasing, and the support they need is also increasing."
On July 10, local time, in Kassala State in eastern Sudan, the Sudanese armed conflict continued, and displaced people lived and took refuge in camps. Photo/IC photo
No results in peace talks
As the risk of famine continues to increase, international mediators held a new round of ceasefire negotiations with Sudanese armed forces in Geneva, Switzerland. The negotiations started in Geneva on August 14 local time. The Sudan Rapid Support Forces sent a delegation to participate, but the Sudanese Armed Forces did not send a representative.
After more than 10 days of negotiations, the "Coalition for Peace and Civilian Protection in Sudan" formed by the participating parties issued a joint communiqué on August 23. According to CCTV News, the communiqué stated that during this round of negotiations, the alliance successfully promoted the reopening of some key humanitarian corridors in Sudan and obtained the commitment of both parties to the armed conflict in Sudan to strengthen the protection of civilians. However, the parties failed to reach any agreement on issues such as ceasefire.
Liao Baizhi, director of the Middle East Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the Sudanese Armed Forces did not attend the negotiations in Geneva, so it was unlikely that the negotiations would have positive results from the beginning. He pointed out that the Sudanese Armed Forces were actually dissatisfied with the negotiations, including the failure to reach an agreement with the coordinating party on whether the Sudanese government delegation or the Sudanese Armed Forces delegation should participate in the dialogue, and the skipping of the Jeddah agreement to the Swiss negotiations and the UAE becoming an observer in the negotiations.
There are reports that the Sudanese armed forces believe that the UAE is behind the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces and is supplying them with weapons, but the UAE denies this.
This round of conflict broke out on April 15 last year and the fighting has continued to spread. In early May last year, under the mediation of Saudi Arabia and other countries, the warring parties held negotiations in the Saudi city of Jeddah and signed an agreement to implement a short-term ceasefire and make arrangements for humanitarian operations. However, the agreement has not been effectively implemented. According to Xinhua News Agency, the two sides have reached short-term ceasefire agreements several times since then, but they have not been effectively implemented.
In late October 2023, under pressure from the international community and human rights organizations, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces resumed peace talks led by the United States and Saudi Arabia. However, both sides refused to temporarily cease fire during the negotiations. In December of that year, the negotiations broke down again without any progress in the ceasefire. Saudi Arabia and other mediators subsequently announced that the negotiations between the two sides in Jeddah would be suspended indefinitely.
On March 8, 2024, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling on Sudan's warring parties to cease hostilities during Ramadan. Subsequently, the Sudanese Armed Forces agreed to indirect negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces, mediated by Libya and Turkey. However, the Sudanese Armed Forces required the Rapid Support Forces to withdraw from civilian areas before agreeing to a ceasefire during Ramadan, and ultimately the parties failed to reach an agreement.
Until August this year, a new round of ceasefire negotiations hosted by the United States was held in Switzerland, with Saudi Arabia and Switzerland as host countries and the African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the United Nations as observers. It was reported that the Sudanese armed forces did not send representatives to the meeting, but maintained telephone communication with the coordinating party. However, the negotiations failed to make progress on issues such as ceasefire.
In fact, Liao Baizhi believes that the Sudanese armed forces are more eager to promote the implementation of the Jeddah Agreement. He pointed out that one of the clauses in the Jeddah Agreement is that the warring parties withdraw from the occupied areas, which is obviously more in line with the interests of the Sudanese armed forces at present. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Sudanese "Sovereignty Council" announced on August 18 that after communicating with the US and Egyptian governments, the Sudanese government will send a delegation to Cairo, the capital of Egypt, to discuss the "vision of implementing the Jeddah Agreement."
But from the perspective of the overall situation in Sudan, Liao Baizhi believes that it is still very difficult for the warring parties to reach a ceasefire. "To achieve a ceasefire, either both sides have completely stopped fighting, or one side has clearly won. At present, neither of these two conditions exists, and both sides are still tit-for-tat and unwilling to give in," Liao Baizhi said. "At the same time, the situation in Sudan is becoming more and more complicated, which makes a ceasefire more and more difficult."
On August 23rd, local time, in Geneva, Switzerland, a new round of ceasefire negotiations on the Sudanese armed conflict ended. This round of negotiations failed to reach any agreement on issues such as ceasefire. Photo/IC photo
The Endless Civil War
On August 24, local time, the day after the Geneva negotiations ended, Sudanese Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Burhan told the media in Port Sudan: "We will not go to Geneva... We will fight for 100 years." Burhan's tough attitude made the outside world even more pessimistic about Sudan's peace prospects.
On April 15, 2023, a fierce armed conflict broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in the capital Khartoum, killing hundreds of people within a few days. Sudan's political situation has been unstable for a long time, and the power struggle between Abdel Fattah Burhan, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces, is considered to be the direct cause of this round of armed conflict.
Burhan and Dagalo teamed up in 2019 to overthrow former President Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan for nearly 30 years. Since then, Sudan's military and civilian leaders have reached a power-sharing agreement to lead Sudan to a political transition. In 2021, when the democrats demanded that the military transition to a civilian government, the Sudanese military launched a military coup and arrested transitional government Prime Minister Hamdok and other senior government officials.
The military coup led to a year-long wave of protests in Sudan. Finally, under pressure from the international community, the Sudanese military launched negotiations to form a civilian government. In December 2022, the Sudanese military and the democrats signed a framework agreement to gradually restore Sudan's civilian government and allow the civilian government to lead Sudan to hold elections within two years. Both sides promised to sign a final political agreement in early April 2023.
However, Burhan and Dagalo have many differences in military reform and the direction of national development, and they are also competing for the future leadership of the army. This dispute has delayed the signing of a political agreement and eventually led to a military confrontation. The conflict initially centered around the capital Khartoum and gradually spread to other areas. In July last year, UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that Sudan was on the verge of a "full-scale civil war."
"Sudan's civil war has lasted for 500 days, and there is still no prospect of a breakthrough." Liao Baizhi told the Beijing News that the core contradictions of the civil war are the differences between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces on the incorporation of military forces, as well as the contradiction on the future sharing of national power. "These two core contradictions are basically unresolved now, and the war cannot be stopped."
On the battlefield, although the Sudanese Armed Forces may be relatively disadvantaged in some cases, on the whole it and the Rapid Support Force are evenly matched. As a result, the two sides are hard to distinguish on the battlefield. No one can completely defeat the other in the short term, and no one is willing to make concessions.
This civil war has spread almost all over Sudan. In the past 500 days, the two sides have fought fierce battles over Khartoum and North Darfur. Currently, most of Khartoum is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces, and the government led by the armed forces was forced to move to Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast of the country in August last year. In the Darfur region, all four states except North Darfur have been controlled by the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, and the struggle over North Darfur is still ongoing.
Darfur consists of five states, where ethnic and racial conflicts are prominent and long-term violent conflicts continue. During this civil war, several human rights watchdogs have pointed out that there have been serious ethnic cleansing attacks against ethnic minorities in Darfur. Statistics show that in the year since mid-April last year, militias in Darfur burned down 68 villages.
Liao Baizhi pointed out that the situation in Sudan is becoming increasingly complicated. In Sudan, in addition to the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Sudan Rapid Support Forces, which are still fighting, the historical rebels and local military organizations are also gradually involved. In addition, there are reports that mercenaries have appeared on the battlefield in the past few months, which means that some foreign forces may also begin to intervene, making the situation more complicated. "The contradictions between the various factions in Sudan are difficult to resolve, and no one side has an overwhelming advantage, which has led to the delay in resolving the conflict." Liao Baizhi said.
In fact, with the ongoing war in Gaza and the escalating situation in the Middle East, the Sudanese civil war has been ignored by the international community to some extent. But in the face of the worsening humanitarian crisis, Liao Baizhi said that the international community must increase mediation efforts to promote a ceasefire between the warring parties in Sudan, and ensure that more humanitarian aid can enter Sudan even if a ceasefire is difficult in the short term.
Lenny Kinzli, an official of the World Food Program in Sudan, told the media recently that the only way to prevent the further spread of famine in North Darfur is for the international community to "pay more attention to Sudan." "We need to stop hostilities immediately and allow food aid to enter Sudan to prevent famine from spreading to other parts of the country."
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian
Edited by Bai Shuang, Proofread by Liu Yue
