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According to a report on the German News TV channel website on August 19, the reporter interviewed Austrian military expert Colonel Markus Reissner, who said: "The attack on Kursk is a high-risk gamble for Ukraine."

German news TV channel website asked: Ukraine continues to control a considerable area of ​​Russia's Kursk region. Is it even possible for Ukrainian troops to continue to advance?

Markus Reisner: Ukraine has up to 6,000 soldiers operating on Russian territory. The Ukrainian General Staff said that these soldiers have successfully occupied up to 80 villages and towns and controlled about 1,000 square kilometers of land. Ukraine is currently trying to hold on to the captured areas and expand some of the occupied areas. The Ukrainian army is switching from offense to defense, preparing for a possible counterattack from Russia.

Q: How did you come to this conclusion?

A: The Seym River runs through the Ukrainian advance zone. There is evidence that Ukraine destroyed two bridges there and damaged another. Why? First, because the river can serve as a line of defense against a Russian attack. Second, because Ukraine can try to occupy more territory along the Seym River. In addition, the Ukrainian army is working to keep its supply lines open. One challenge is that the Ukrainians have almost no heavy engineering equipment to prepare for a Russian counterattack. Due to constant air strikes, the Ukrainians have no way to build truly solid fortifications. But this will determine whether Ukraine can hold this section for a long time.

Q: The Ukrainians are preparing, but the counterattack has not yet begun. Why is it so difficult for Russia to launch a counterattack in Kursk?

A: Russia had few troops in the region. The 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment there was composed mainly of conscripts. The Ukrainians defeated these troops by the principle of surprise and deception. If the Ukrainian army had 5,000 to 6,000 people, then Russia would need at least 20,000 to 25,000 to launch a counterattack.

Q: Is the Russian army also using troops in Donbass for this purpose? After all, the Ukrainians had hoped that the attack on Kursk would relieve the pressure in Donbass.

A: From a strategic perspective, this was Ukraine's medium-term goal. In the short term, it was to create positive headlines again, distract from the Russian advance in Donbass, and boost the morale of their own troops. This has clearly succeeded. But there is no indication that the medium-term goal of moving Russian troops from Donbass to Kursk has been achieved. There are no measurable results in this regard.

Q: How can this be measured?

A: Judging from the situation in Donbass, the Russian army is still on the offensive there. Ukrainian General Alexander Serski also mentioned the data in this regard recently. According to him, the Russian army advances about 4.8 kilometers in Donbass every day. The Russian army has not yet transferred any troops worth mentioning from Donbass to Kursk.

Q: What was the long-term goal of the attack on Kursk?

A: Ukraine wants to improve its position on the battlefield before possible negotiations with Russia. The coming weeks and months will show whether this can really be done. Ukraine must hold the occupied areas for a relatively long time. In this regard, a report in the Washington Post at the weekend is very interesting. According to the report, Russia and Ukraine had planned to negotiate under the mediation of Qatar. It is said that the Russian side canceled the talks only after the Ukrainian army attacked Kursk.

Q: You just mentioned that Russian troops are still advancing in Donbass. Has there been any change there in the past few days?

A: The Russian army is still attacking in five directions in Donbass. With these offensives, the Russian army is approaching Ukraine's third line of defense. We can see that despite the offensive in Kursk, the overall situation is still unfavorable to Ukraine.

Q: So this offensive is a diversion from the potentially disastrous military situation in Ukraine?

A: Absolutely. One of the reasons for the planned Qatar talks is the energy situation in Kyiv. After more than 900 days of war and Russian airstrikes on key infrastructure, Ukraine estimates that it has only 9 gigawatts of electricity available for the coming winter, while energy demand is 18 gigawatts. The country is facing an extremely difficult winter.

Q: What if success doesn’t come?

A: Attacking Kursk is a high-risk gamble for Ukraine. It now has to maintain three fronts with already stretched resources. If the invasion of Kursk does not achieve the desired results, precious reserves that could have been used in Donbass will be consumed, while Russia continues to advance there. The Ukrainian army's briefly boosted morale may then become unraveled.