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Text | Xiaoyin

When Ukraine claimed that its troops were advancing rapidly in Russia, Germany, which had originally provided it with a large amount of military aid, suddenly announced that it would suspend its military aid to Ukraine.

Is this a sudden withdrawal?

Coincidentally, after Israel proposed a joint attack on Iran to Britain and France, the two countriesNATOThe countries all refused.

According to CCTV reports, local time8moon17It was learned on the 2nd that the German government will suspend military assistance to Ukraine. The reason given is:

Germany's ruling coalition wants to cut spending.

It seems that there is no money! But what is the actual situation?

Let's take a look at the agreement reached by Germany's "traffic light government" - the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party.2025The 2019 fiscal budget will reduce aid to Ukraine. Specifically, it will reduce aid by half, reducing it to only aid Ukraine.40The money saved will be used to meet domestic demand in Germany.

Germany's military aid to Ukraine costs a lot of German public money 

If we analyze it further, according to information disclosed by members of the Budget Committee of the German Bundestag,2024Germany's annual aid budget for Ukraine has been spent, so now it has to use the newly passed2025Annual budget40100 million euros in funding.

In other words, this year is the Year of the Dragon, and next year is the Year of the Snake, which means "the Year of the Snake eats the Year of the Dragon". Once you have eaten it up, you will have nothing to spend.2025Germany will provide no new military aid to Ukraine in 2020.

What considerations are behind this decision of the German Parliament?

Xiaoyin feels that the reason behind this may be related to the US presidential election. After all, former US President and Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump has announced that if he is re-elected as US President, he will24Stop the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within hours. Regardless of how true Trump's words are, at least Trump did have a good relationship with Russia during his last presidency, causing some people in the United States to even claim that Trump had "collusion with Russia." Under such circumstances, Germany must naturally be prepared for Trump's possible election as the US president and the situation thereafter.

Even if Democrat Kamala Harris is elected as the US president, will her policies be exactly the same as those of the current President Biden?

Zelensky (left) and Scholz Photo: Data

Germany's move seems to have cut the budget for aid to Ukraine next year, but in fact it is just a wait-and-see move!

After all, if the US policy towards Ukraine remains unchanged next year, the German parliament can also discuss the possibility of additional aid to Ukraine. In this way, the current "eat the food of the past" approach seems to be quite interesting. It can also be said that the "traffic light government" is not necessarily incompetent or inefficient. Specific issues need to be analyzed specifically.

As for Britain and France's reluctance to join Israel in jointly attacking Iran, Xiaoyin believes that this is also reasonable. After Trump took office, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, Britain and France had a subtle attitude.

In other words, although the West agrees to impose sanctions on Iran, there are differences in the specific policies of each country.

Last year, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, after which Israel invaded the Gaza Strip. Until recently, Israel announced that it would stop using troops in the Gaza Strip. What happened here? Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran.

Then, of course, Iran vowed to retaliate. This is understandable. After all, Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel on Iranian territory. Iran naturally feels that its territorial sovereignty has been violated. And Israel has not apologized to Iran so far. It even claimed to strike Iran.

Both Britain and France feel it is better not to get involved in such fabricated contradictions.

Israeli Foreign Minister Katz (left) met with visiting British Foreign Secretary Lamy (right) and French Foreign Minister Serjournet (center) in Jerusalem on August 16. Photo: Global Times quoted foreign media

At a press conference in Jerusalem:

French Foreign Minister Stephane·"It is inappropriate to talk about retaliation, or to prepare for retaliation together with Israel, while diplomatic negotiations are ongoing," Sejourne said.

British Foreign Development Secretary Lamy also stressed: "The UK is working with its allies to ease tensions." Lamy also added that all parties should not allow the cycle of retaliatory violence to perpetuate.

The plan set up by Israeli Foreign Minister Katz was to win over Britain and France to put pressure on relevant "opponents" in the Middle East. Unexpectedly, in the public press release, the British and French foreign ministers' statements were equivalent to teaching Israel - "When will the cycle of revenge end?"

Whether it is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict orIsraeli-Palestinian conflictAnyway, if the conflict continues for one more day, more lives will be lost. There is no doubt about this. From a military perspective, even if Ukraine invades Russian territory, Russia still occupies a larger area of ​​Ukrainian territory. If the war continues, in the short term, it may not be possible to determine the winner.

If Germany stops its military aid to Ukraine, what will France, Britain and other countries think next? It seems that there are mercenaries from France and other countries among the Ukrainian troops that invaded Kursk, Russia. At least according to the Russian side, there are. Who pays the wages of these mercenaries? Is it possible to withdraw the fire? Will this lead to the balance of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict being broken again?

The situation is different in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Regardless of whether Britain and France cooperate with Israel, Israel's own military strength is stronger than that of neighboring countries such as Palestine and Syria, and it is not aligned with Iran. In other words, Israel and Iran cannot fight each other at will.