Observation | As Thaksin's daughter and the youngest prime minister, can Petunthan resolve the political dilemma in Thailand?
2024-08-16
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According to Xinhua News Agency, Thai Parliament Speaker Vanno announced on the 16th that Pheu Thai Party's nominated prime ministerial candidate Petonthan Shinawatra won the support of more than half of the members in the special session of the House of Representatives held that day and was elected as the new Thai prime minister.
On August 16, 2024, local time, in Bangkok, Thailand, the lower house of the Thai parliament voted to elect Pheu Thai Party leader Petongthan Shinawatra as the new prime minister of Thailand. IC photo
Born in 1986, Petunthan is the daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. After her election, she became the second female prime minister in Thai history after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra, and also the youngest prime minister in Thai history.
"For the Thai people, Petunthan is often seen as an inexperienced character. However, this also means that she is a fresh face. In particular, she is a symbol of her father Thaksin, which is a good thing for Thaksin's supporters. However, for Thaksin's critics, this is exactly why they don't want her to be prime minister." Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a political commentator from Thailand and a doctoral student in the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn).
Stand out in political drama
In just three days, the political situation in Thailand has changed dramatically. On the 14th, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled that a previous personnel appointment by Prime Minister Setha was unconstitutional due to "violation of morality" and dismissed him from the post of Prime Minister with immediate effect. After Setha, many Thai sources and media disclosed that Petunthan had once refused the nomination for Prime Minister, and Thaksin's preferred candidate was Chaikasem rather than Petunthan. The media also hyped up the idea that the Pheu Thai Party would nominate Chaikasem as the candidate for Prime Minister.
Although the 75-year-old former Attorney General Chaikasem is politically experienced and loyal to Thaksin, his health is worrying, and what is even more worrying is his attitude towards Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code. "Although many people in the Pheu Thai Party say that Chaikasem's health has improved, the public does not know whether this is true, and he is not in the media's attention. Chaikasem once signed an open letter for the Pheu Thai Party, suggesting an open attitude towards amending the 'crime of insulting the monarchy', which may bring him legal responsibility," Lohat Pannun told The Paper.
On August 15, the Pheu Thai Party and the ruling coalition held meetings and finally agreed to nominate Pheu Thai Party leader Petunthan as the only candidate for prime minister. "Although there have long been reports that the Shinawatra family refused to let Petunthan take the position because of the high risk of the prime ministerial post, the Pheu Thai Party has no choice," said Lohat Pannongt.
Former Prime Minister Seta and Petunthan belonged to Thaksin's faction. Seta's resignation and Petunthan's rise to power were full of political games between Thaksin's faction and the conservative-dominated Senate. Sanyarat Meesuwa, associate professor at the School of Politics and Governance at Mahasarakham University in Thailand, told The Paper that Seta's rise to power was the result of a compromise between the Pheu Thai Party and Thailand's conservatives, and the lawsuit against Seta was the pro-conservative judicial system continuing to "beat" Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party to make Thaksin's faction restrain itself.
On May 14 last year, after the Far East Party became the largest party in the lower house of parliament in the election, after many negotiations and compromises, Seta, the prime ministerial candidate put forward by the Pheu Thai Party, became the new prime minister on August 22. Since then, there has been constant struggle between political forces in Thailand. On June 18 this year, the Thai court opened a trial on four cases involving the most powerful political forces in Thailand - Thaksin's suspected violation of Article 112 of the Criminal Code (lese majeste) and the Computer Crimes Act, Seta's dismissal, the dissolution of the popular Far East Party, and the Senate election procedure. On July 24, the Thai Constitutional Court again heard Seta's qualification case. On August 14, the court made a final decision and Seta was dismissed on the same day.
"The dismissal of Setha shows that political power is still mainly in the hands of a conservative-dominated system, which is composed of royal supporters, the military, and business elites... After the Thai Rak Thai Party (the predecessor of the Pheu Thai Party) was dissolved in 2007, the political influence of the judiciary has gradually grown and has become an important tool for conservatives to interfere in the power of the executive and legislative branches." Metsuwan analyzed to The Paper.
Facing the same political vortex, outsiders analyzed that there might be many hidden meanings behind Petuntan's promotion. "One theory is that Petuntan was a passive choice for Thaksin, and she was a 'hostage' to some extent. After she became prime minister, the Shinawatra family was less likely to take major risks, reduce risky policies, and align with the conservatives. But this is more of a guess," said Lockhart Pannun.
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, also told Reuters that Petunthan will face attacks once in office. "She faces higher risks... and if the Pheu Thai Party's policies do not produce any results, the Shinawatra family's political career may come to an end."
The curse of the Shinawatra family?
On August 16, when she was elected Prime Minister, Petuntan was not yet 38 years old. She is the youngest daughter of Thaksin and his ex-wife, Poojamun, born on August 21, 1986. She has a brother who is 6 years older and a sister who is 4 years older. Public information shows that Petuntan graduated from the Department of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, and then went to study at the University of Surrey in the UK, where she obtained a master's degree in international hotel management.
On August 16, 2024, local time, in Bangkok, Thailand, the lower house of the Thai parliament voted to elect Pheu Thai Party leader Petongthan Shinawatra as the new prime minister of Thailand. The picture shows Petongthan holding a press conference. IC photo
Petone comes from the Shinawatra family, a political and business "tycoon" that has produced three prime ministers (Thaksin, Yingluck, and Somchai). The party led by the Shinawatra family has deeply influenced Thai politics since Thaksin became prime minister in 2001. Despite this, Petone's life was not related to politics from the beginning. After graduating from university, Petone returned to Thailand to join the family business and worked at the real estate giant SC Asset, succeeding Yingluck as the company's largest shareholder. According to statistics from local Thai media, as of 2022, Petone holds shares in 21 companies with a total amount of 68 billion baht (about 13.9 billion yuan). Petone's shareholdings include Rosewood Bangkok, Thames Valley Hotel, Khao Yai, etc. He also serves as a director of the Thaicom Foundation and CEO of the hotel business of the family business Rende Development.
In 2019, Petunthan and Thai Airways pilot Susawat held a grand wedding in Hong Kong, China. At that time, Thaksin, Yingluck and other family elders still had tense relations with the Thai military, political conservatives and even the royal family, and were charged in the country and exiled overseas. Because Petunthan's wedding was not held in Thailand, Thaksin, Pojamun, Yingluck and other family members were able to attend the wedding in Hong Kong. Even Ubolratana, the sister of the current Thai King Vajiralongkorn, attended the ceremony.
Although Petunthan had come into contact with the public by accompanying her father Thaksin on campaign trips during his tenure as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, she did not make her mark in politics until 2021. In October of that year, she began serving as chief adviser on "participation and innovation affairs" for the Pheu Thai Party, whose spiritual leader is Thaksin.
2023 may be a turning point for the Shinawatra family. This year, Petthornthan led the Pheu Thai Party to face the general election held on May 14. Petthornthan, Seta and Chaikasem of Thaksin's forces became the three prime ministerial candidates nominated by the Pheu Thai Party for this election. Although the Pheu Thai Party lost to the Future Forward Party in the election, the Future Forward Party's radical policy of offending the monarchy was hit by conservative forces in Thailand. Not only did the party leader Pita fail to get the position of prime minister, the party was also disbanded, and Thailand fell into a political deadlock for several months. Amid the undercurrent of political struggle, Seta became the new prime minister on August 22. It was on the same day that Petthornthan's father, Thaksin, who had been in exile abroad for more than ten years, returned to Thailand. The night before his father returned home, Petthornthan shared his feelings on the social platform and said: "See you tomorrow. I'm going to the airport to pick up my dad. Can you sleep tonight?"
On February 18 this year, Thaksin was released on parole. Since then, people from all walks of life in Thailand have paid more and more attention to Thaksin's role in Thai politics. Especially considering that the then Prime Minister Seta was a businessman who had a close personal relationship with Thaksin and was a "political novice" before becoming prime minister. The outside world once suspected that Seta was just a kind of "front-office role" for Thaksin.
Petuntan herself has never denied the influence of her father on her. On March 26, Thaksin returned to the Pheu Thai Party headquarters building to visit her after 17 years. The place where he used to work is now Petuntan's office. At that time, Petuntan said that her father Thaksin has always been her role model and has played a guiding role in her since she was a child, but this is not the so-called "dominant relationship between father and daughter."
However, Thaksin has maintained a high profile since his return, making public appearances and political comments throughout Thailand. Both during and after his resignation, Thaksin's political agenda has caused deep political polarization in Thailand: his supporters are mainly from the vast and once-neglected peasant community in the northeast, while his opponents are mostly staunch royalists who accuse Thaksin of corruption, abuse of power and disrespect for then-King Bhumibol.
As Thaksin Shinawatra has been increasingly stirring up the Thai political arena, the lawsuit against him has been launched again. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Attorney General of Thailand ordered on May 29 to prosecute Thaksin for his interview with the media in Seoul, South Korea in 2015 under Article 112 of the Criminal Code. In the interview, he accused the Privy Council (the advisory body to the Thai king) of helping to plan the 2014 military coup.
In the view of Mae Suwan, associate professor at the School of Politics and Governance at Mahasarakham University in Thailand, conservative forces in Thailand used military coups to intervene in politics in the past, but now they are more adaptable. "These forces are keenly aware that they lack popular support, as the results of the 2023 election clearly demonstrate. So they focus their energy on formulating a constitution and political system that favors appointed personnel rather than elected politicians."
"If there continue to be differences in political positions between conservatives and progressives, and instead of seeking common ground, they will fall into political division. The continued polarization will continue to undermine Thailand's political stability," Mae Suwan told The Paper.
For the Pheu Thai Party led by Petunthan, Setha's lawsuit has revealed cracks within the ruling coalition and even reminded people of the "curse" that the Shinawatra family bears that makes it difficult for them to stay in power for a long time.
"The unexpected removal case shows that the political alliance has been shaken. The lawsuit against Setia was initiated by some senators who are said to have close ties with Prawit (leader of the conservative People's Power Party, former army chief and former deputy prime minister) within the ruling coalition. It is reported that Thaksin has a tense relationship with Prawit and he may want to expel Prawit's party (with 40 seats in the House of Representatives) from the ruling coalition." Political commentator Lockhart Pannon told The Paper.
On August 16, 2024, local time, in Bangkok, Thailand, the lower house of the Thai parliament voted to elect Pheu Thai Party leader Petongthan Shinawatra as the new prime minister of Thailand. IC photo
In addition to Petunthan, Anutin from the center-right Pheu Thai Party was also a popular candidate for the prime ministerial vote. He is a senior politician who has led Thailand's fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and is the main promoter of "marijuana legalization." However, after Setha was dismissed, Anutin and the Pheu Thai Party emphasized that they support the Pheu Thai Party to lead the formation of the government.
"Anutin and other conservative parties are willing to support Pheu Thai because of strategic needs. If the conservatives rely on themselves to form a government, they do not have enough numbers; and for the conservatives, the People's Party (formerly the Future Forward Party) cannot seize power. So they can only continue to form an alliance with the Pheu Thai Party." Lohat Pannun analyzed, "For Anutin, there is almost no benefit in being prime minister now. The economic problems are still serious, and his party does not have enough MPs (with 71 seats in the lower house) to control the government. He will wait for the next election and use the loss of support for the Pheu Thai Party to win more seats."
The rift between the upper class and the people
It is worth noting that under the leadership of Petunthan, the Pheu Thai Party did not win the general election last year, and lost to the emerging party, the Far East Party, by 10 seats in 2023. In the capital Bangkok and even in the traditional "vote bank" and the northeastern region where farmers gather, the performance of the Pheu Thai Party is not as good as the more radical Far East Party.
During the election, Pheu Thai Party competed with the Future Forward Party, but also promised that it would not cooperate with conservatives and would change Thailand, which was deeply affected by the military coup, by forming a government. However, the result was not the case. Pheu Thai Party finally chose to form an alliance with some conservative parties. This made Pheu Thai Party return to the ruling party as it wished, but it also made the party sandwiched between conservatives and radical young voters, which was quite embarrassing.
Setth's performance was not satisfactory. According to the survey data of the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA POLL) in June, more than 60% of the respondents were dissatisfied with the Setth government's administration.
On August 16, 2024, local time, in Bangkok, Thailand, the lower house of the Thai parliament voted to elect Pheu Thai Party leader Petongthan Shinawatra as the new prime minister of Thailand. The picture shows Petongthan holding a press conference. IC photo
Public data shows that Thailand's GDP grew by only 1.5% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest among ASEAN countries. Analysis shows that the Thai government's support for consumption and public investment has slowed down significantly, and the budget for the 2024 fiscal year was delayed until May this year. Behind this is the disagreement between the Setha government and the central bank on the digital wallet, the "flagship project" of the Pheu Thai Party, which has led to the continuous postponement of the budget and the implementation of the digital wallet project has not been smooth.
In addition, although Setha has visited many foreign countries in less than a year in office, seeking investment opportunities in the United States, Europe, China, Japan and other places, the effect is not significant. Thailand's foreign direct investment (FDI) data performed poorly, dragging down the country's exports. The country's exports fell by 1% in the first quarter, and the manufacturing production index (MPI) also fell by 3.7%, falling for six consecutive quarters. Thailand's household debt problem has not been resolved.
After Setha was dismissed, Sorawang Thienthong, secretary general of the Pheu Thai Party, stressed that the e-wallet project, which is the flagship project of the Pheu Thai Party, will continue. The outside world therefore expects that Petunthan will continue many of Setha's government's economic and social policies. This includes reversing the "legalization of marijuana" process and increasing supervision on the use of marijuana; developing a "pink economy" centered on consumption by sexual minority communities based on the legalization of same-sex marriage; attracting global electric vehicle (EV) companies, technology companies and other emerging industry companies to invest in Thailand; and promoting the Ranong-Chumphon "land bridge" project in the southern province of Ranong to promote trade and transportation.
Before Setha stepped down, in early August, the Thai Council of State announced a draft of the proposed casino legislation. The Thai government hopes to develop large entertainment venues such as casinos at designated locations and give franchises to private companies to bring tax revenue to the government and promote tourism. Setha once said that illegal gambling in Thailand has a long history and is deeply rooted, and the government should bring such gray industries into the "light zone." The Petunthan government will take over the agenda of building casinos and face the controversy that comes with it.
"Due to the current global economic difficulties and fierce competition among major powers, the Thai economy, which relies heavily on tourism and exports, is facing negative impacts. The Pheu Thai Party's policies are based on stimulating the economy, but it is currently difficult to achieve its intended goals. In addition, the public's expectations for rapid economic change, coupled with the verbal attacks of the Future Forward Party (now the People's Party), have caused the Pheu Thai Party's policies to lose support," Mae Suwan told The Paper.
Although Petunthan is very young, young voters seem to favor forces other than Pheu Thai and the conservatives. After the dissolution of the political parties, the MPs of the Future Forward Party quickly reorganized into the People's Party and seized 143 seats in the lower house of parliament, still the largest party. The People's Party expressed dissatisfaction with Setha's dismissal, but still insisted on not joining the government and criticized the conservatives and the Pheu Thai Party that cooperated with the conservatives.
Mae Suwan said there are signs that the conservatives and the Thaksin group are trying to compromise and move forward to create a stable political environment. "If the People's Party softens its stance on its 'hard-core' political and economic reform demands, such as no longer pushing for an amendment to the crime of insulting the monarchy and no longer advocating social democratic welfare programs similar to those in Northern Europe, and the conservatives reduce their manipulation of the political system and local politics and trust more in the results of popular votes, then Thailand will have a chance to achieve a stable government," she said.
(Intern Zhang Chuhan also contributed)
The Paper reporter Xu Zhenhua
(This article is from The Paper. For more original information, please download the "The Paper" APP)
