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I think people on the front line can feel the current market situation. Although it is still hot everywhere, the market is extremely cold. Even Xu Zheng has started to play a delivery man. People say that rich people have started to play themselves and we have to pay for them. When Xu Zheng's "Lost in Thailand" was released more than ten years ago, it corresponded to a period of rapid growth in outbound tourism.

Many things that were inertial and default in the past will change. Our logic must be completely adjusted in four months. Why four months? Because it is already August. In four months, it will be 2025, and I think the market will undergo further profound changes.

Now, most companies have cut their budgets by 30% or more, and next year they may cut another 30% or more on this basis. Even luxury goods have reduced a lot of activities, and the financial reports of hotel groups have begun to decline. In the past, many companies, whether in sales or business, thought they had high emotional intelligence and were in control of everything. This state is almost a thing of the past. Now the competition for orders is almost a life-and-death battle.

Last week, I was in the Pearl River Delta, and a marketing manager of a leading company told me that some people in their industry have started to submit bids with negative gross profits. That is, if the cost is 1 million, he might bid 900,000. At least this 900,000 can ensure that workers are on the job and some inventory can be digested.

Therefore, if you still cannot let go of your attitude and want to make money by standing still as you did in the past, you will basically be beaten by the market.

Many industries are now full of inventory. Not only the inventory in the manufacturers' warehouses, but also the inventory in the dealers' warehouses, and even the homes of the former leeks and core users are full of inventory.

Ask those experienced liquor users, which one of them doesn’t have dozens of boxes of liquor at home. Those who like to drink tea and have a little power and resources, which one of them doesn’t have dozens of kilograms of old Pu’er and old white tea at home.

Drink it every day, and you can't finish it in many years. When the financial attribute is hammered, the market will quickly return to the consumption attribute. Old leeks will no longer move these things home (spend money). In addition, the number of people who give him gifts has also decreased significantly.

For those things that my family doesn’t have, is it because I don’t like Rolls-Royce that I don’t buy one? Is it because I don’t like Peking University that I don’t apply to Peking University?

Therefore, the previous rhetoric, the pressure to buy, and the logic of stockpiling have basically been squeezed to the limit. There is no more room for maneuver, and many people in the channel will be finished this year.

The effectiveness of the positioning theory is greatly diminishing. This is because it is a typical method that is more useful when grabbing land in an immature market, or a complete toolbox. But now all industries have reached their peaks and shrunk. For example, last week I went to a lighting company, and they said that the top home appliance companies also want to enter this track. It’s not that they think this track is so good, but that home appliances really have no growth. And they themselves have entered the track of whole-house customization. And my other clients in the past, including those who make tiles, are also entering the whole-house customization track. So what should people who used to do whole-house customization do?

Don't be superstitious about these theories these days. I saw 8 hot pot restaurants in a mall in Chongzuo, Guangxi (China-Vietnam border). There was a hot pot called all-beef hot pot, a steak hot pot, a stir-fried all-beef hot pot, and a tripe hot pot. Because there are so many, consumers have become completely immune to them. It is normal for industries to penetrate each other in the future. For example, Luckin Coffee makes milk tea, and milk tea sells coffee. KFC has been selling breakfast for more than ten years. Now it also sells midnight snacks and pre-prepared meals. I believe it will start selling barreled soybean oil one day.

May I ask, at this time, do you still want to win the market with just one sentence?

Last week I went to Shuibei, Shenzhen, China's largest gold and jewelry trading center. On the hottest day, I felt the most desperate atmosphere. Large wholesalers and ODMs can no longer receive orders. Floor after floor of the exhibition halls were empty, and there was no terminal to pick up the goods.

We spent the whole morning chatting with a big man who has been in the industry for 40 years. He hardly smiled for a second. The market seemed to have entered a period similar to the stock market and the real estate market when the unit price was at its highest point, with a complete reduction in volume. That is, there is a price but no demand. The goods are no longer in circulation.

What does this mean?

The boss said: Maybe the problem with demand is not the masks, but masks just make people think the problem is them. So everyone has been waiting for recovery. Maybe our industry will not be able to wait for recovery this time.

In the past, selling information gap was a good business. But today, the information gap is not that big. First of all, there are no new changes in many industries. The information gap itself is not much. There is almost no room for profit margin by moving. Secondly, the information channels are now fragmented, and everyone is not stupid. Many things can't be concealed. I think this matter is worth everyone's careful consideration and transformation. This is why many methods in the past have failed. Because you assume that the other party cannot get information faster than you.

Why is it difficult to run a self-media business? Because there are too many people doing it, and the information gap is getting smaller and smaller.

Shandong has recently started to reform its public institutions. Many institutions have become enterprises. Even Shandong has started. Other places will follow suit soon.

Now many people still hope to get together in a group, eat from the same pot, and take advantage of a little. That will basically be their turn soon. When demand declines and no longer grows, the company's appropriate redundancy strategy will change. In the past, many companies would hire more people and keep some talents in advance. But this will no longer be necessary in the future. In the past, many people learned how to slack off on Douyin. This is basically hurting yourself.

Try to make yourself a person who has things to do in the company, a person who has important things to do. This is very important.

The second-hand recycling economy is rapidly emerging. Many stubbornness during the economic growth period has been completely put aside. For example, it is not face-saving to use old things. I recently bought a left earphone for my Airpods that lost the left earphone on Xianyu for 175 yuan. The utility is exactly the same. It doesn't matter whether it is new or old. The seller may have recycled the left earphone from someone who lost the right earphone.

So this also creates GDP, but it is one-tenth the price of new products. I believe that the large amount of demand for new products that is disappearing is being transferred to the circular economy. The demand has not disappeared, but the demand for new products is disappearing. I also bought this article from an old Thinkpad X1 from a second-hand computer store on Taobao. It is 5,000 yuan cheaper than this year's new model. First of all, I need a good computer, and this demand has not changed, but I hope to spend less money. So I am not downgrading, I am just looking for a better solution. Vivo and Oppo both have official refurbished machine stores on Taobao.

Today, consumption downgrade is roughly equivalent to comparison downgrade, impulse downgrade and IQ upgrade. IQ upgrade includes no longer believing in scams and knowing how to search for good things.

Last week I went to a group-purchased hot pot. I remember that a few years ago, a hot pot meal at a better restaurant cost four or five hundred. This time, I spent 168 to buy a coupon on Douyin. I ate so much that I almost died. There were three abalones, two oysters, and two scallops. There was a plate of beef, half a Huadiao chicken, and I couldn’t count the other things. Later, I group-purchased a coconut chicken, and the situation was similar. From three or four hundred, it became 188. I also found a detail, that is, people used to buy in excess, thinking that it would give them face, but now they basically order as much as they eat. Now everyone has developed the habit of searching for the best coupons on various platforms before eating. So the general decline of 20% in catering stores is probably due to these combined reasons. Welcome an extreme, pragmatic, information-free, and micro-profit era. Everything petty-bourgeois, exaggerated, and bubble-like has become a thing of the past.

During the May Day holiday, I went to Xi'an. I had planned to travel during off-peak hours, but there were still huge crowds. There was a man-made check-in spot that I thought was a rip-off: the Tang Dynasty City that Never Sleeps. I walked for half a day in the cold wind. There were so many people that I had only one thought along the way: I regretted coming here. I am such a big XX. There were so many people that the traffic was still stuck on the road at 12 o'clock in the middle of the night.

I saw its financial report yesterday. It was really good. In the first half of last year, it received 42.44 million visitors. Its revenue was only 65.86 million yuan. The average income per person was 1.5 yuan.

So I bought a cup of chocolate for 40 and was far ahead.

This is probably the current situation of cultural tourism.

Offline and online seem to be the same, there is traffic but no consumption.

Based on the above, for most companies, the brand department is becoming a very difficult and embarrassing existence. Because consumers no longer pay for some dispensable sentiments. If they do buy, they will only pay for the few most advanced products in this category. Most of those stuck in the middle will have a very, very difficult time. When the bosses lose their long-term determination and patience for the significance of brand investment, the meaning of the existence of this department seems to be only to edit the boss's speech.

At the beginning of this year, I said that 9.9 is killing Chinese companies. Because companies no longer have profits to build brands, talent, and organizations. By the middle of this year, we can see that the profit margins of almost all related companies have dropped sharply. After everyone was passively or actively involved in this matter, it seems that they have no energy to think about anything else.

Last week, I was in some sinking markets and saw two cups for 9.9, and a single cup for 6.6. The key is that in a county town with hundreds of thousands of people, there are more than a dozen milk tea shops on a main road, and almost all brands are available. It seems that everyone is selling in a suicidal way.

Many companies have downgraded the brand department to the sales department.

Some industry leaders have also recently laid off brand marketing and public relations staff.

Decision makers also know that in the long run, a brand is still necessary, but in the short term, survival is more important.

Also, they all talk about long-termism, but now making the most money is the first priority.

In the past, many businesses were done in a confused state. You have probably been cheated out of money in such scenarios: 1. A friend, unable to get over the relationship, bought some seemingly useful but actually cost-effective things and services. 2. In fact, he is a salesperson, but he provides a lot of emotional value and packages himself as a friend. In a daze, you buy a lot of useless things and services, or pay more. I think these futures will soon be unworkable. Everyone's wallets are getting tighter and tighter. So it is not feasible to do business purely by providing emotional value and taking advantage of the familiar.

If you have done all the actions and the business still continues to drop by 30%, what should you do? Perhaps this is something that everyone who is not outside of those specific industries should think about. Are you in a position where the water will dry up when the tide recedes? Although everyone today is emotionally disgusted with struggle, hard work, and involution, a more cruel truth is: in the logic of survival and escape, only by running further can you survive. Only by working harder can you survive to the starting point of the next cycle.

Of course, there is another solution, which is to lie down completely. I mean, after you have calculated whether you have mortgage, car loan, education and medical expenses, you can still accept this state in your heart and lie down relaxedly. If not, then you have to get up and continue to work. This is the truth.

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