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According to Xinhua News Agency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a video call with Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sersky on August 13. Zelensky then posted on social media that despite the difficult and fierce fighting, the Ukrainian army continued to advance in the Kursk region, and Ukraine's "bargaining chips" were increasing. It has now controlled 74 settlements in the Kursk region. As of the 12th, the Ukrainian army has controlled about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the situation in Kursk Oblast and stressed that "the most urgent and important thing at the moment is to immediately drive the Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory."

Since Ukraine launched a "raid" on Russia's Kursk Oblast on the 6th, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine in the region has continued for a week. Outside analysts generally believe that Ukraine is trying to gain more bargaining chips for negotiations against the backdrop of recent battlefield defeats and the uncertainty brought about by the US election to the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. However, some observers pointed out that there is no sign that Ukraine's pressure on the eastern front has been significantly relieved. Whether the Ukrainian army's "high-risk gamble" can achieve the expected results remains to be seen.

Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of political science at the City College of New York and senior fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that if at some point the war looks like it might go on indefinitely, then any American president, whether from the Democratic or Republican party, will have to consider the costs and political realities of continuing to support Ukraine.

Keep silent

Before and after the attack, Ukraine remained tight-lipped about the specific situation of the battle, and Zelensky did not speak out about the operation until the 10th. The outside world could not even know exactly how many troops the Ukrainian army had sent.

At the beginning of the Ukrainian army's raid on Kursk, the Russian side estimated that about 1,000 soldiers were involved in the operation. A Ukrainian officer later revealed that "several thousand" soldiers were involved. Some Western people also believed that the Ukrainian army had gathered as many as 12,000 soldiers at the border before the operation.

However, the New York Times pointed out that there are still traces of the Ukrainian army's unexpected action. Battlefield maps drawn by independent analysts show that Ukrainian soldiers who have been fighting in the east for a long time have quietly entered the Sumy region of Ukraine, across the border from Kursk, before launching this attack. In mid-July, observers discovered a drone battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine near the Russian-Ukrainian border, and troops of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which was fighting fiercely with the Russian army near Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, also moved to the area. The same is true for soldiers of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, which was at the forefront of the battle in Kharkiv Oblast this spring.

A Ukrainian military officer revealed that the Ukrainian army transferred some brigades to the Sumy area under the pretext of training and receiving new equipment. Soldiers were told not to wear military uniforms when entering the town to avoid attracting attention. Some troops were not informed of their mission until the last minute.

Russia seemed to have noticed the Ukrainian army's movements, but ultimately did not take more preventive action. Andrei Gurulyov, a Russian MP and former senior military officer, revealed: "About a month before the attack, the Russian military leadership received a report saying that 'troops had been discovered and intelligence showed that they were preparing to launch an attack'...but the top leadership issued an order not to panic."

Reuters said that the Ukrainian army's "silence" this time was in "sharp contrast" to last year's planned counterattack. At that time, Ukraine "publicized" the counterattack several months in advance, but ultimately failed to break through Russia's well-prepared defense line.

Some U.S. officials revealed to the media that they had not received official notification about the Ukrainian mission. This may be because Ukrainian officials were worried that the United States would try to persuade Ukraine to cancel the mission, or it may be because Ukraine was "overly concerned" about the risk of leaks.

Although the Ukrainian army is believed to have used weapons provided by the West in this operation, the United States has stated that Ukraine's actions are "in line with U.S. policy requirements" and will not further escalate the conflict. On August 13, U.S. President Biden made his first substantive response to Ukraine's attack on Kursk, saying that Ukraine's actions "created a real dilemma" for Putin and that the U.S. government is "in touch" with Kiev.

"I've been talking to my staff frequently, probably every four or five hours over the last six to eight days...We've been in direct contact with the Ukrainians," Biden said.

Tactical adjustment?

On the afternoon of August 13, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense released the latest assessment of the battle in Kursk. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian army thwarted the attempt of the Ukrainian mobile forces to use armored vehicles to penetrate deep into Russian territory near the settlements of Kochuk, Obshikolodz, Snagost and Alexeevsky in the Kolenevsky region of Kursk Oblast. Some Russian media pointed out that three of the above settlements are located 26-28 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border, and Snagost is about 12 kilometers away from the border.

At present, the next move of the Ukrainian side remains to be seen. In a video link on the 13th, Zelensky has asked Serski to formulate the "next key step" of the operation. Serski responded that "everything is going according to plan." Some reports show that the Ukrainian army may have begun digging trenches in Kursk, but some analysts pointed out that the Ukrainian army is unlikely to occupy the Kursk territory for a long time.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk analyzed that Ukraine "either advances further or holds" the occupied territory, and the next move will depend on the risks that are being constantly assessed. But he expects that the Ukrainian army will continue to try to advance deep into Russia, and the next stage will enter a positional war. Kiev may soon consider which areas can be controlled by it and can be best defended.

Podoljak, the chief adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, made it clear on the 13th that if the war is to be ended and Russia is to re-understand the rules of war, one way is to destroy the logistics and infrastructure used by Russia for military operations against Ukraine through ground operations. Another way is to launch large-scale, regular long-range strikes against Russia, but this requires a large number of missiles and the West to abandon the ban on the use of these missiles in Russia. Previously, Zelensky had called on the West to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons provided by it on the 11th.

Russia has begun to prepare for the possibility that Ukraine may further expand the scope of the attack. As of the 12th, 121,000 people have been evacuated from Kursk Oblast. Gladkov, the governor of the neighboring Belgorod Oblast, also posted on social media on the 13th that due to the actions of the Ukrainian army, about 11,000 residents of the state had been evacuated to other areas on the 12th. Putin himself warned the governor of Bryansk Oblast, which is also on the border, that although the situation currently looks "relatively calm", "it does not mean that the situation will remain the same tomorrow."

Jen Spindel, an assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire in the United States, believes that the Ukrainian army's actions in Kursk show that Ukraine may have taken the "first step" in changing its strategy to resist Russian military operations.

"Ukraine cannot continue to fight this war in the way it has done for the past two years. It simply does not have enough manpower and weapons reserves. The Russian army is larger and more powerful... If Ukraine wants to have any hope of continuing to fight, it will need to resort to more asymmetric warfare and bring the conflict into Russian territory." Spindler also added that this means that Ukraine does not need to confront the Russian army, which has the advantage in many aspects, on an open battlefield, but needs to adopt tactics that are more suitable for the Ukrainian army's existing strength and weaponry, which seems to be what is happening in Kursk now.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also believes that Ukraine's attack on Kursk is a critical moment in the war and may change the trajectory of the war. The think tank said that Ukraine may be able to restore its combat mobility by planning and implementing a series of consecutive small-scale counterattacks rather than launching a decisive strike.

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) pointed out in a report on the 12th that the Ukrainian army has learned lessons from the failure of the summer offensive in 2023, and has made significant improvements in coordination between different services, especially in the integration of artillery, armored forces, electronic warfare and drone support. These highly mobile and well-equipped troops enable the Ukrainian army to advance quickly and maintain pressure on Russia. In addition, the logistics planning behind the Kursk operation also seems to be more powerful. Despite the challenges of fighting on foreign territory, the Ukrainian army can continue to advance.

But the report also points out that the Kursk offensive is not without risks. Fighting on Russian territory will bring huge logistical challenges to the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian army must deal with more and more Russian counterattacks. Russia has begun to strengthen its positions in Kursk, and the outcome of the offensive remains unclear. If the Russian army manages to contain or reverse Ukraine's gains, then Ukraine's operation may face setbacks similar to the summer battlefield in 2023.

High-risk gambling

The Diplomat magazine previously stated in an analysis on the 9th that Ukraine has long lacked bargaining chips, and this action may change the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine from "land for peace" to "land for land". Ukraine's new strategy may give the "doves" in the Russian leadership a way out, making them believe that the current military action plan should be reversed to restore Russia's territorial integrity. At the same time, this is also a response to the growing war-weariness in Ukraine, the international community's criticism of the slow progress of peace talks, and Ukraine's increasingly unfavorable strategic position. Especially in the context of the upcoming US election, Zelensky may have decided to "take a gamble" to change and accelerate the war situation. If the negotiations are finally held earlier than expected, Ukraine will be able to gain greater bargaining chips.

However, there are still different opinions in the outside world as to whether Ukraine can achieve its goals through actions against Kursk.

The New York Times called the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk a "big gamble", especially since Russia still controls most of the front line with Ukraine and has made significant progress in the east. The report said that if the Ukrainian army can hold the territory currently occupied in Kursk, it can provide bargaining chips for peace talks. But if Russia manages to drive the Ukrainian army out of Kursk and advances in eastern Ukraine at the same time, then Ukraine may be accused of providing Russia with an opportunity to gain more territory. Some US officials expressed surprise at the smooth progress of the operation so far, but expressed doubts about whether the Ukrainian army can hold on to the results.

A Ukrainian military source told Politico on the 13th that the Russian army had transferred some troops from the southern Zaporizhia and Kherson regions to resist the Ukrainian army's continued offensive in Kursk, but added that the Russian army had only mobilized a "relatively small" number of troops. Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas also said that Russian troops were found to have left Kaliningrad.

After the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Kursk, outside observers generally believed that Ukraine's move was intended to force the Russian army to move away from the eastern front in order to relieve Ukraine's pressure on the front. But as of now, the Russian army is still stepping up its offensive in the eastern front. The Ukrainian military said on the 13th that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army has stepped up its attack on Pokrovsk, the logistics center of the Ukrainian army in the eastern region of Ukraine. The number of daily battles in the area has reached the highest peak in nearly a week, reaching 52 times, accounting for more than one-third of the total number of battles reported on the front line, and has also increased significantly compared with the frequency of 28-42 times per day in the past week.

The Financial Times reported on the 13th that in eastern Ukraine, Russian troops have approached Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, New York (Niu-York) and other places, and the situation is very dangerous. The front-line map provided by Deep State, an analysis channel on Ukraine's social platform, shows that as of the 13th, most of New York (Niu-York) is under Russian control. On the Donetsk front, soldiers are "both happy and frustrated" about the results of the battle in Kursk, and believe that there is no sign that the Russian army has transferred resources from Donetsk to Kursk. A senior officer said that he hopes Serski will remember that "there is still a fierce battle here (Donetsk)."

Some analysts believe that Russia may be weighing whether to simply stabilize the front line in the Kursk region or to recover all lost territory. If it is the second case, then the Russian army may have to withdraw from Donetsk on a large scale.