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Key Points：

1. Harris and her team will certainly continue to emphasize her role as a female prosecutor and her experience in the public security system. From Trump's perspective, he may also use the public security situation in San Francisco or other areas to criticize Harris.

2. The current swing states include the "Rust Belt" and the "Sunshine Belt", which are also called "regions forgotten by economic development." Voters themselves feel that since they are a generation forgotten by economic development, they will choose a candidate who can disrupt the existing system.

3. Before and after Harris became a candidate, Trump showed disdain for this black woman who took the field temporarily. This contempt directly led to Trump's lack of prudent restraint when facing Biden - he made inferior personal attacks on Harris and used her skin color and gender as an excuse, which was unacceptable to the middle-class voters in swing states.

4. Harris' current poll numbers are indeed very impressive and encouraging, but these are also the first three steps a new official takes. The upward cycle in the early stages of a campaign is generally not considered to last for three months. Harris has not yet accepted any media interviews. If her subsequent statements deviate, or if the Republicans dig up dirt on her in other aspects and attack her, the poll numbers will inevitably change again.

introduction:On the evening of August 6, Beijing time, the Democratic candidate Harris announced that her running mate is Minnesota Governor Waltz. According to several US polling agencies, Harris's recent polls have been on a straight rise, surpassing Biden in some swing states and Trump in four swing states. There are less than 100 days left before the US election, and the election "battle" between the Democratic and Republican parties is still going on. In this issue, we have invitedYou Chuanman, associate researcher at the Shenzhen Institute of International Affairs of the Chinese University of Hong Kong,as well asLiu Jiahao, assistant researcher at the Wise International Research Institute, giving us insights into the United States.

1.host:Before Harris announced her running mate, it was widely rumored that it might be the Governor of Pennsylvania. But on August 6, it was suddenly announced that the running mate was actually the Governor of Minnesota, Waltz. Why was he the running mate? What was the Democratic Party thinking?

You Chuanman:There are indeed other candidates, including Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, who is highly regarded;Arizona Senator KellyBut the final choice of the relatively less well-known Minnesota Waltz was based on several considerations.

On the one hand, under the constitutional system of the United States, the power distribution between the president and the vice president is very uneven. The vice president is more symbolic and cannot challenge the popularity of the president. On the other hand, in the current election situation, both parties need to "win the support of the broadest masses of the people." Harris, as a woman and a minority, can both add points and deduct points. Harris's personality will be relatively less attractive to the traditional American white Christian society, especially conservative areas. When choosing a vice presidential partner, the most important thing for her is to make up for her own shortcomings as much as possible.

There are also special geographical factors to consider in choosing Minnesota. Although Minnesota is not a swing state in the traditional sense, its geographical location is actually in the Great Lakes region, similar to the Shandong Bohai Sea area in China. Its voter structure, economic pressure, and Christian culture representing conservative traditions are similar to other swing states.

From a personal perspective, Waltz has been working in Minnesota and federal politics for many years and has rich political experience. At the same time, Waltz's educational background is not a "top student" in the traditional sense, and his alma mater is relatively less well-known, but his rich political experience is a complement to Harris. Because Harris came from the prosecutor system, her political resume lacks some achievements, which is one of the reasons why she has been criticized.

2.host:If Waltz and Harris are still a traditional partner with strong complementarity, in contrast, Vance can attract some voters in the Rust Belt, but his political resume and identity do not seem to be very complementary to Trump, and their political views are particularly consistent, and Vance may even be more extreme. Do you think he is a good running mate?

You Chuanman:Vance is portrayed as a typical representative of a self-made man who rose from humble background to success. On the one hand, he wants to attract voters in the Rust Belt, and on the other hand, he wants to take advantage of the huge generation gap between him and Trump, who is 30 or 40 years older, to serve as a loyal successor of Trumpism and make a bid for the presidency in 2028.

But Vance's personality is also controversial. For example, his impressive educational background and career experience are inseparable from the strong support and political investment of his financial backers. At the same time, his book "Hillbilly Elegy" is also controversial for its description and thinking about the Rust Belt.Critics believe that Vance himself is just an opportunist and not very representative. It is more of a wishful narrative, or a personal character creation. There are also more sophisticated political considerations behind the publication of this book.

In addition, Vance's remarks in an interview in 2021 also caused great controversy. He said that many women in the United States do not have children and are "cat women without children." This does not take into account that many women are not infertile, but are influenced by various social factors. So now his poll numbers are not very high, and there are even results showing that he is the worst vice presidential candidate in recent years.

3.host:Harris's past as a prosecutor is completely opposite to Trump's current status as a felon. How do you think the campaign teams of both sides will use the labels of their candidates? Is there a consensus within the Democratic Party on Harris' support?

You Chuanman:Since taking over Biden's campaign, Harris has maximized her prosecutorial experience. When she was officially nominated by the Democratic Party and confirmed to participate in the campaign, she emphasized her work experience as a prosecutor in her first public plan, clearly stating that she had pursued the financial crimes of Wall Street tycoons and emphasized that she was ruthless towards criminals who violated women's rights. In fact, it was mainly aimed at some recent lawsuits against Trump.

Harris and her team will certainly continue to emphasize her role as a female prosecutor and her experience in the public security system. However, from Trump's perspective, the Republican Party may also use the security situation in San Francisco or other areas to criticize Harris.

The support for Harris actually came from Congress first. Former Speaker Pelosi should have the strongest support for Harris, after all, both of them are politicians from California. At present, the Democratic Party has a high degree of unity for Harris, and should be relatively consistent in its support.

4.host:The most important thing in the election is the key swing states. According to the polls, Harris is leading in four of the seven key swing states in the United States. Because the campaign funds are in place and the media and public opinion are guided, the Democratic Party may influence some poll data. What do you think of these poll information? Why do the attitudes of swing states change so much? Are polls reliable?

You Chuanman: Swing states include the "Rust Belt" and the "Sunshine Belt", and there is another saying called "regions forgotten by economic development". Voters themselves feel that since they are a generation forgotten by economic development, they will choose a candidate who can disrupt the existing system.If we look further ahead, the current left-wing and right-wing extremism in Europe and the United States is often a rebellion against the existing system. When voters vote for A instead of B, it is not because they support A, but simply to express their opposition to B.

Back to the current campaign, from fund raising to publicity efforts, both the Republican and Democratic parties have made their main investments in “swing states.”

Judging from the changes in the polls, Trump and Harris do have very different personal styles and domestic and foreign policies.The Biden administration's support for Palestine did not meet voters' expectations, so many voters cast "uncommitted votes" during the party's primary election, clearly stating that they might support the Democratic Party but would not vote for Biden. Harris, as a minority, awakened these "sleeping" voters.This year, many voters made political donations for the first time since 2024. The overlap of these two data is telling. The arrival of tens of millions of funds is indeed a huge contribution to Harris' campaign.

Liu Jiahao:I think there are three perspectives from the candidate's perspective.

First, Biden's performance was so bad that it directly affected the polls in swing states. After the debate on June 27, everyone's dissatisfaction with Biden broke out. The Democratic Party's support rate in the polls took a relatively steep downward curve. Coupled with the catalysis of Trump's assassination, many voters began to support third-party candidates in order to express their dissatisfaction with Biden.

Second, Harris has indeed brought a ray of hope to the Democratic Party. After Biden withdrew from the race, the Democratic Party quickly united to support Harris, partly because of the call of the party leaders, and partly because Harris provided a relatively decent option. The Democratic Party and center-left voters actually hope to unite quickly, and Harris happens to be the most legitimate person, so the polls rose against the trend.

Third, from Trump's perspective, he did not quickly develop an effective strategy against Harris. Before and after Harris became a candidate, Trump underestimated her to a certain extent, showing his disdain for this temporary black woman.This contempt directly led to Trump losing the prudent restraint he had when facing Biden - he made cheap personal attacks on Harris and used her skin color and gender as an excuse, which was unacceptable to centrist voters in swing states.

As for whether polls are reliable, I understand that there are two meanings. One is whether the organization is reliable, and the other is whether the data is accurate in predicting the election results. There are many polling organizations, and the sampling methods vary greatly. There is also a lot of room for operation details, and the error value also needs to be considered.

When the gap between the two candidates is very small, the polls are usually not that indicative. For example, in Pennsylvania right now, Trump's two-point lead is completely within the margin of error. In addition, when the election is tense, some survey agencies will deliberately lower the poll data of one party to stimulate the support of the party's voters and middle-class voters. So some people say that the Democratic Party's support rate may have been deliberately lowered some time ago in order to urge Biden to withdraw from the election.

But from a vertical perspective, polls can indeed show changes in candidates' support rates.Harris' current poll numbers are indeed impressive and encouraging, but these are also the first three steps a new official takes. It is generally believed that the initial upward cycle in the campaign cannot last for three months.Harris has not yet accepted any media interviews, and people are questioning whether her subsequent statements will deviate or the Republicans will dig up dirt on her in other areas to attack her, and the polls will inevitably change again.

5.host:From now on, Harris has a 50% chance of becoming the next president of the United States. In some major European and American countries, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, there have been or are currently female leaders. Is the United States ready to welcome a female leader to serve as president, and a person of color? At present, it seems that there are still some difficulties for a female president to appear in American society. What are the main problems?

You Chuanman:Historically, Obama solved the skin color issue of the US president in 2009, and Harris became vice president in 2021, successfully kicking down the glass ceiling for women serving as US president.

Currently, being a female character or a person of color is more of a plus. Of course, there are also voices of opposition, but they are mostly from relatively conservative religious people. In fact, the United States is still a society dominated by Christianity or Catholicism, so there is still a lot of rejection of female characters, especially among extreme conservatives.

If Harris wants to meet the challenge now,On the one hand, it is necessary to continue to show the gentleness and empathy of women, but more importantly, it is necessary to embody the identity of the so-called "Iron Lady", similar to Britain's Margaret Thatcher and Israel's Mrs. Meir, showing her iron-fisted side of governing the country.In other words, Harris is waiting for an opportunity to demonstrate her decisiveness as a strongman or a political leader.