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Source: Huanqiu.com

[Global Network Technology Comprehensive Report] On August 7, according to Reuters, a federal judge in the United States recently ruled that Alphabet's Google search business had illegal monopoly behavior, a ruling that could threaten its long-term lucrative deal with Apple. Wall Street analysts pointed out that in order to avoid antitrust penalties, Google may have to terminate its cooperation agreement with Apple, which makes Google's search engine the default option on Apple devices.

Image source: Oriental IC

According to Morgan Stanley analysts, Google pays Apple up to $20 billion a year to maintain its position as the default search engine, which accounts for about 36% of Google's search advertising revenue through the Safari browser. If this agreement is terminated, Apple's profits are expected to be hit by 4% to 6%. This huge amount of revenue is crucial to Apple and accounts for a considerable proportion of its pre-tax profits.

According to documents filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, the agreement between Google and Apple will last at least until September 2026, and Apple has the right to unilaterally extend it for two years. However, as antitrust lawsuits advance, the future of this agreement has become uncertain. Evercore ISI analysts predict that the judge may rule that Google no longer pays for default rankings, or require companies such as Apple to actively prompt users to choose a search engine, rather than setting a default and allowing consumers to change it at will.

Herbert Hovenkamp, ​​a professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania, pointed out that companies that have a dominant market position should avoid using exclusive agreements and ensure that the agreements give buyers the right to freely choose substitutes. This view was reflected in the Google antitrust case and may trigger more extensive industry changes in the future.

Despite the pressure of antitrust lawsuits, Apple did not sit idly by. Analysts believe that this ruling will accelerate Apple's transformation to artificial intelligence search services. Apple recently announced that it will introduce OpenAI's ChatGPT chatbot to its devices, and plans to discuss with Google to add Gemini chatbots and other artificial intelligence models to reduce its reliance on traditional search engines.

At the same time, Apple is also continuing to improve its Siri digital assistant, using artificial intelligence technology to enhance its ability to handle complex tasks, such as writing emails and processing messages. Although these efforts are not expected to bring significant benefits in the next few years, they have laid a solid foundation for Apple to take full advantage of new technologies.

Emarketer analyst Gadjo Sevilla said: "Apple may view this as a temporary setback, especially considering the huge profits it made from the Google search deal. However, this is also a great opportunity for them to turn to AI search solutions." As artificial intelligence technology continues to develop, Apple is expected to make breakthroughs in this field, thereby making up for possible losses due to antitrust lawsuits.

It is worth noting that the "remediation" stage of Google's antitrust case may be quite long and may involve multiple rounds of appeals, including the U.S. Court of Appeals, the District of Columbia Circuit, and the U.S. Supreme Court. This legal dispute may last until 2026 or even later.