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2024.08.07

Word count: 1560, reading time: about 2.5 minutes

Author |Wu Simin, China Business News

Recently, a research article published online in the well-known international journal Nature stated that the number of pathogens that may trigger the next pandemic has increased to more than 30, including influenza A virus, dengue virus and monkeypox virus.

The conclusion of the article is based on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s latest updated list of "priority pathogens". In early August, the WHO published an article calling on governments to strengthen global research and development cooperation to prepare for the next pandemic. The research and development priorities include the entire family of pathogens that can infect humans (regardless of whether they have pandemic risks) and these "priority pathogens".

The latest list of "priority pathogens" was drawn up by 200 scientists organized by the WHO after two years of evaluation of relevant evidence on 1,652 pathogens (mainly viruses and bacteria). Earlier, the WHO had established a total of more than a dozen "priority" pathogens through two seminars in 2017 and 2018.

The Nature article stated that whether a pathogen is included in the list is mainly based on three pieces of evidence: whether the pathogen is highly contagious and lethal, and whether the current relevant vaccinations and treatments are relatively effective. WHO believes that these "priority pathogens" may cause global public health emergencies (such as pandemics) to humans.

Neelika Malavige, an immunologist at the University of Sri Jayewardenepura who worked on the review, specializes in the Flaviviridae virus family, which includes the virus that causes dengue. “It is imperative that these lists are regularly updated to reflect major global changes such as climate change, deforestation, urbanization, international travel, etc.,” said Malavige.

Dengue fever is an acute infectious disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted by the bites of Aedes mosquitoes. Its clinical features include sudden fever, body pain, rash, bleeding and leukopenia. In severe cases, shock and vital organ failure may occur, and even death may occur.

In recent years, the affected areas of local dengue fever caused by imported cases have been expanding, with a tendency to spread from the southern subtropical regions to the central and northern temperate regions. On July 29, the official website of the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention released an overview of the national epidemic situation of notifiable infectious diseases in June 2024. Among them, the number of cases of dengue fever, a Class B infectious disease, in June was 130, showing an upward trend compared with the number of cases in May and April, which were 109 and 58, respectively. Since May, Guangzhou and other places have successively reported many local and imported dengue fever cases.

So far, there is no dengue vaccine on the market in my country. In May this year, WHO announced that the new dengue vaccine TAK-003 has been included in the WHO prequalified vaccine list. This is the second dengue vaccine to be included in the list.

Regarding the updated list of "priority pathogens", the WHO further clarified in the relevant report that viruses such as dengue and bacteria such as Salmonella typhimurium and Klebsiella pneumoniae are all "high-risk" pathogens worldwide (the six regions divided by the WHO: Africa, America, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific).

According to the aforementioned Nature article, other pathogens that are also included in the list and pose serious risks of transmission and hazards worldwide include: Sabei coronavirus and Mabe coronavirus subtypes. The former includes the new coronavirus, and the latter includes the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus.

Other newly added "priority pathogens" include the monkeypox virus that caused a global monkeypox outbreak in 2022 and is still spreading in parts of Central Africa. It is worth noting that the related smallpox virus is also included in the aforementioned list. Although the smallpox virus was eradicated in 1980, people are no longer regularly vaccinated against the virus and therefore cannot develop immunity to it. If the virus is accidentally released, it may cause a pandemic.

In addition, a variety of influenza A viruses have been included in the list, including the H5 subtype virus that has caused an epidemic in American dairy cows, as well as viruses that have caused cholera, plague, dysentery, diarrhea and pneumonia.

To prevent potential pandemic risks, my country's disease control and prevention departments have repeatedly warned this year that influenza, avian influenza, novel coronavirus infection and disease X (future emerging infectious diseases, Disease X) have potential pandemic risks and need to be prioritized for prevention and control and future response plans should be planned in advance.

At the end of July, the Medical Emergency Department of the National Health Commission issued a measles diagnosis and treatment plan and a newly revised dengue fever and avian influenza diagnosis and treatment plan. At the end of last year, the National Health Commission also updated the relevant diagnosis and treatment plans for infectious diseases such as plague, cholera, anthrax, bacillary dysentery, epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, whooping cough, scarlet fever, brucellosis, kala-azar, chickenpox, and fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome.

The National Health Commission recently stated that in recent years, these various common, emerging and sudden infectious disease diagnosis and treatment plans have played an important role in effectively handling related infectious disease outbreaks.

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