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[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang] Ukraine's long-awaited US-made F-16 fighter jets have finally been delivered. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis and a US official both said that Ukraine has received the first batch of F-16 fighter jets. However, both Ukraine and Western countries are much more realistic about how much it can improve Ukraine's ability to deal with the Russian army, admitting that it still faces a series of severe challenges.

Small quantity and late time?

Agence France-Presse reported on August 1 that Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis said on the social platform:F-16Arriving in Ukraine, another impossible thing has been achieved." Another unnamed US official also said: "The delivery of the first batch of F-16s has been completed." The US "Forbes" website mentioned that photos circulated on social media recently showed that an F-16 was flying over Lviv in western Ukraine.

F-16fighter

Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian Air Force, which is limited in size and relatively backward in equipment, has been quickly consumed in the brutal war. Although some Eastern European countries have provided Ukraine with some of their inventory of Soviet-era fighters such as the MiG-29, their numbers are limited, and their performance is still far from competing with the Russian Aerospace Forces' Su-35, Su-30SM and other new generation fighters. For this reason, Ukraine has always explicitly asked NATO to provide modern Western fighters.

The US-made F-16 fighter jet, which is the most equipped in NATO countries, has become the first choice for aiding Ukraine. It is manufactured by Lockheed Martin of the United States and can carry various air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons. It has been developed into several models and is still the main force of the air forces of many countries and regions in the world.

However, according to relevant U.S. laws, countries equipped with F-16 fighter jets must obtain approval from the U.S. government if they want to transfer them to a third country. The United States was previously worried that the F-16 had a strong ground attack capability and Ukraine might use it in offensive operations against Russia, which would trigger a strong reaction from Russia. Therefore, it was hesitant about whether to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. It was not until May last year that U.S. President Biden approved the F-16 fighter jets to be given to Ukraine. At present, Denmark, the Netherlands and other countries have successively approved the provision of about 85 second-hand F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Among them, the Netherlands has 24, Denmark has 19, Norway has 12 (Norway also provided 10 as spare parts), and Belgium has stated that it will provide 30.

Regarding Ukraine's acquisition of F-16 fighter jets, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said on August 1: "Their number will gradually decrease, they will be shot down... But, of course, these deliveries will not have any significant impact on the development of the war on the front line."

In fact, even Ukraine and some Western analysts admit that Ukraine has received too few F-16s and "too late". France's Channel 24 website said on August 1 that the number of F-16 fighters delivered so far seems to be very small. The British Times quoted an informed source as saying that only six were delivered in the first batch. This number is expected to grow, but it is far lower than the number military analysts say Ukraine needs. Sergey Kushan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, said that Ukraine needs at least 60 aircraft to launch major operations. Oleksandr Ustinova, head of the Ukrainian Parliament's "Weapons and Ammunition Committee", said that Ukraine needs nearly 120 F-16s to significantly improve its air capabilities.

Deployment location sparks speculation

Compared with the earlier statement that "the F-16 will turn the tide of the war", Ukraine and the West now have a much more pragmatic attitude towards it. In terms of performance, most of these second-hand F-16s are early models that have been modified and upgraded, and are capable of launching AIM-120 medium-range missiles.Air-to-air missilesability, but inradarThere is a clear gap between its detection range, air maneuverability and other aspects compared with the latest models, and it is difficult to win a head-on confrontation with the main Russian fighter jets currently in service.

Justin Bronk, a senior fellow in air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, said that these F-16s will be used mainly for defensive operations rather than direct confrontation with Russian fighter jets. They can provide deep air cover capabilities and may also help intercept suicide drones and cruise missiles launched by the Russian army, "although from the perspective of ammunition, this is a very expensive way." At the same time, since these F-16s can be directly connected to NATO's air command through data links, they can more conveniently use battlefield intelligence provided by NATO early warning aircraft and other mobile operations, and their effectiveness is higher. The "Forbes" website said that it is expected that when Ukraine can accumulate more F-16 fighter jets in the future, they can be used in offensive operations, such as launching Western-developedAnti-radiation missileSuppressing the Russian air defense system, etc.

The website of Channel 24 stated that the first problem of the F-16 deployment in Ukraine is the deployment location. Kushan said, "Russia is attacking all potential F-16 bases in Ukraine every day, intending to destroy the runways and infrastructure. These attacks have not stopped for at least the past two months." Since the beginning of July, the Russian army has used drones and ballistic missiles to launch large-scale air strikes on many air bases in the rear of Ukraine, including Milhorod in central Ukraine, Starokonstantinov in the west, and Doldyntsevo Air Force Base in the Dnipro region. These locations are considered by the Russian army as possible locations for the deployment of F-16 in Ukraine.

To avoid attacks from the Russian Air Force, these fighters may move between different bases in the country and take off from temporary airports to make them more difficult to hit. Russia's Sputnik News mentioned that Ukraine may intend to deploy some F-16s in third countries such as Poland, and use its own airports only for temporary refueling and replenishing ammunition, thereby reducing the requirements for Ukrainian air force bases. The US "Power" website mentioned that in order to avoid directly involving NATO countries in the war, the Ukrainian Air Force's F-16 may even adopt a special mode: take off unarmed fighters from bases in neighboring countries, and then quickly mount weapons and refuel after landing at Ukrainian airports, take off to perform missions, and finally fly back to overseas air bases. But the report acknowledged that this approach is likely to lead to a head-on conflict between NATO and Russia. "If the F-16 performs combat missions from bases outside Ukraine, Russia will launch an attack on it."

Ukraine faces a host of challenges

Western media generally believe that the biggest challenge facing the Ukrainian Air Force F-16 is the problem of personnel training. "You can have a lot of jet fighters, but if they don't have effective weapons and the crews are not effectively trained, then they will be shot down in large numbers," Bronk said. The "Power" website said that so far, there seem to be relatively few Ukrainian pilots who have received F-16 training. The Washington Post revealed that only six Ukrainian pilots have completed a full set of training to fly the F-16. Ustinova said that it is expected that by the end of 2024, Ukraine will have at least 20 pilots who can fly the F-16. But the "Forbes" website said that Ukrainian pilots only began training to fly American fighters at the end of last year - this is a "crash course" because Western pilots usually spend 3 years or more learning to fly this advanced fighter. Sources interviewed by Bloomberg said it is unclear whether the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to use the F-16 for combat "immediately" or whether further training is needed in Ukraine. "Before starting combat missions, the Ukrainian Air Force needs to conduct a certain degree of familiarization flight training locally."

Bronk also mentioned that for a relatively "delicate" fighter like the F-16, training qualified maintenance personnel is a more pressing challenge than training pilots. Most maintenance needs to be carried out in Ukraine and is likely to rely on foreign contractors. At the same time, Kushan mentioned that when the F-16 fighters, pilots and maintenance teams arrive in Ukraine, they will become high-value targets for the Russian army to attack, forcing the Ukrainian army to disperse its limited air defense systems for defense. On average, each air base needs at least two Patriots and two NASAMS air defense systems.

In addition, Forbes is also worried that in the era of social media, how to keep the deployment location of the F-16 confidential has become a problem. For example, photos with Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets will help others determine the specific shooting location, which may attract long-range strikes from the Russian army.