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Editor’s Note:On the 21st local time, the current US President Biden announced on social media that he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election and would support Harris to continue his campaign as the Democratic presidential candidate. This is the first time in more than 50 years that a US president has withdrawn from a re-election campaign. The last time he withdrew from a re-election campaign was when then-President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the 1968 election.

Many people saw Biden's withdrawal as "finally the final nail in the coffin", and then turned their attention to the Democratic Party, which was in a mess - could it elect a competitive candidate who could unite the party to fight against Trump, who was gaining momentum, in a very tight time? In Trump's view, could he, who had survived the catastrophe, "open champagne at halftime" and "win without any effort"?

Guancha.com immediately connected with Professor Shen Yi, a professor of international politics at Fudan University and the host of the program "Yi Yu Dao Po". The following content is compiled based on the audio of the conversation.

[Text/Observer Network columnist Shen Yi]

At present, it seems that Biden's withdrawal from the election is the result of a split in the Democratic establishment. Biden originally believed that he had the firm support of Pelosi and Obama, but now we see that Sanders and AOC, who are generally considered to have a bad relationship with Biden, are firmly supporting Biden to continue running, while Obama and Pelosi:

After the shooting, something strange happened in the United States - the voices calling for Biden to withdraw from the election came from the pro-Democratic media represented by the New York Times. It is generally believed that those articles in the New York Times were manipulated by Obama. If Obama had not pushed behind the scenes: first, the pro-Democratic media would not have taken such a big step; second, the news that the Democratic Party persuaded Biden to withdraw was top secret, and it was not easy for the media to get the news.

Compared with Obama's secret operation, Pelosi's calculations on Biden are out in the open. Pelosi now looks like the "chairman" of the Democratic Party. Their internal calculation is "assuming Biden loses the presidential election, the Democratic Party cannot lose Congress at the same time." The Senate will be re-elected this year. Currently, the Democratic Party has 34 seats in the Senate, only one more vote than the Republican Party. With the Republican Party already controlling the House of Representatives, if the Senate is lost again, it means that both houses and the president will be gone, which is unacceptable to the Democratic Party. In this case, Pelosi, as the "big boss behind the scenes", must force Biden to withdraw from the election.

When they made this decision, they were, in a sense, admitting that they had lost the presidential race.

Many people may ask, if Biden withdraws from the election, who will replace him? The answer is no one.

There is one thing we need to make clear first. This is to replace a de facto party nominee before the party nominee is announced. First of all, if there is no presidential election, if the president resigns due to personal reasons such as old age or poor health, there is no problem with the vice president taking over. The order of succession of power for the US president is written in the law, and there is a complete system.

The current situation is that the United States is at the end of the first stage of the presidential election - the two parties nominate their own presidential candidates. In this stage, some people first come out to sign up. After signing up, a round of party primaries will be held in various states in the United States according to a certain process. Candidates compete for the so-called party delegate votes. When a certain number of party delegate votes are reached, a national party congress must be held according to regulations. At the national congress, if one person meets the requirement of more than half of the votes, such as Trump, the congress will follow the procedure and nominate this person as the party's presidential candidate. If no one meets this condition, the party delegates need to continue voting.

Biden's embarrassment now is that he has already gone through the Democratic Party's nomination process, and no one has jumped out to compete with him. From the perspective of timing and strategy, if Biden had withdrawn earlier or not run at all, he would not have to go through this process, or if Biden had gritted his teeth and run to the end, or even withdrawn directly after the first presidential debate, it would be much better than withdrawing from the election now. Biden chose this time, and we can draw a simple conclusion that Biden is still fighting.

There are several issues being debated within the Democratic Party surrounding Biden: First, can Biden win? They concluded that not only can he not win, but it may also lead to the end of the Democratic Party in Congress for two full years, and even a "red tide" across the United States. Second, if Biden can't win, who can win for sure? In fact, there is no one. If this issue could still be discussed before Trump was assassinated, after the bullet grazed the head of the "King of Understanding", there was no room for imagination - the Democratic Party has wasted too much time. Third, what procedure should be followed to push out the new candidate? Should a "mini blitzkrieg" be launched to ensure legitimacy - an expedited procedure to select the nominating candidate, or should Harris be pushed directly?

From the actual effect, Harris has a big problem as a Democratic candidate. First of all, as a politician, she is not particularly strong in personal ability. More importantly, this person has had a personal scandal on the way to her position, which is the so-called "mistress rumor". Therefore, as a politician, Harris has always had the defect of "not being in the right place". If she is inexplicably certified by an old man to push her to a high position this time, and her opponents are Trump and Vance, two famous "chatterboxes" - if these two people talk about the gains and losses of policies, they may not even be able to memorize the manuscript, but if they attack Harris's "mistress", it will hit their "strike zone" and they can have a lot of things to play. This is Harris's inherent defect as a Democratic candidate.

At present, although Harris has the support of Biden himself, the Democratic Party has not unanimously supported her. This can be seen as Biden's unwillingness to withdraw from the election and his final resistance - even if I withdraw, I will not let you feel comfortable. So the 2024 American democratic election has become another form of "three-way fight".

I once commented that the 2024 US presidential election is a so-called "two-party three-way" election - Biden, Trump, and the Republican establishment. Now the Republicans have united, the establishment has withdrawn, and the entire Republican Party has become "MAGA-ized", while the Democratic Party is divided. Biden withdrew from the election under pressure from the opposition, but those who oppose Biden cannot push out an absolutely competitive candidate, so the Democratic Party will only become more and more chaotic in the future.

The Democratic Party needs to complete the online nomination in early August, and send it to the Democratic National Convention for a vote on August 19. It will not only decide who will be the presidential nominee, but also who will be his running mate. In this awkward situation where the fast beats the slow, the Democratic Party must quickly reach a series of deals, otherwise there will be a high probability of some hidden dangers, such as the "political scammers" that often appear in palace dramas, who will make their debut in this anxious atmosphere - just like those who are terminally ill and have a strong desire to survive will always be charged an IQ tax by scammers who sell panaceas. At this moment, it is very likely that political novices who boast about their policy proposals will be eager to take the position and try their luck.

If the Democratic Party is in a bleak situation, from the perspective of the "King of Understanding", he is not only "opening champagne at halftime", but is about to open champagne in advance. Given his temperament, he probably thinks that the 2024 presidential election has entered garbage time, and the only thing left is to announce that I am already the president. Just when everyone thinks there is no suspense, it is still necessary to remind everyone that if nothing unexpected happens, it is time for something unexpected to happen.

First of all, there is no such thing as “pouring champagne at halftime”. Instead, “King of Understanding” is in a bit of trouble now - when the opponent is not Biden, Trump only has one advantage left, which is his “child of destiny” persona, and the rest are disadvantages.

When Trump and Biden faced off, Trump's strategy was simple: to turn this presidential election from a functional election into a "personality election." After all, American voters have little confidence in the policies of either party, so why not pick someone who looks more like the president? At least compared to the aging Biden, Trump, no matter how vulgar he is, is more energetic than Biden. Now in some places, the polls between Trump and Biden have opened up by nearly 10 percentage points.

But what if the Democratic Party replaces it with a younger candidate who is as dynamic as Trump? When Trump jumps out of his "comfort zone" of attacking Biden, how will he adjust his strategy?

On the other hand, the Republican Party must not ignore Biden's existence, or the Republican Party's top priority is to completely deal with Biden. In any case, Biden also has an identity as the current president of the United States. Once he is no longer under the pressure of the election, from now until January 20, even if he loses influence on major policies, he can use the resources and power in his hands to make some small moves and cooperate with the candidate nominated by the Democratic Party to undermine the Republican Party. It is not only possible but also very likely.

After withdrawing from the election, Biden's position has become more delicate. If the Republicans cannot deal with Biden, the situation will become a real "two against one" for Trump - let Harris or other young candidates rush to the front, and Biden will stay in the back and use the presidential power to deploy troops. The resources that Biden can mobilize as president without the burden of his personality are unimaginable - if Trump and the Republicans are ready to "win by lying down" from now on and do nothing, they will definitely be defeated.

The dramatic 2024 US presidential election has played out so far. In a nutshell, we can't see a united and forward-looking America, but only the calculations of a group of sophisticated egoists: Is Pelosi calculating the outcome of the Democratic presidential election and the overall political situation in the United States? No, we only see her desire for power as a big boss behind the scenes - it doesn't matter if the Republicans take the presidency, but my Congress cannot be lost; is Biden's old age just now? He was already very old four years ago. When he decided to run for the election, he knew that his energy and physical strength were problematic, but he insisted on not withdrawing, and waited until time and resources were almost exhausted. He suddenly withdrew and pushed Harris in. Isn't it because he was unwilling to give up and wanted to continue to control the situation?

As Jon Stewart, the host of an American political talk show, said in his show, the so-called unity between the two parties in the United States now is to say "we want unity" in the first five minutes of every interview and speech, and then start to curse each other to death. After cursing, they will spend another two to three minutes talking about "peace" and "the overall situation" at the end. The shot at Trump did not create a situation of political unity in the United States, but continued to develop in a more radical direction. The left wing continues to downplay the president's shooting, and the right wing continues to spread conspiracy theories endlessly...

As the unity of American society continues to be consumed, hostility continues to grow; when the taboo of shooting presidential candidates has been broken, it is difficult to say who the winner will be until January 20, 2025. Because today's American politics has long been "derailed", deviating from its own traditions, systems and rules of the game. In such madness, there was the first shot, so will there not be a second shot?

When I watched this year's movie "The American Civil War," I was confused as to how this civil war started. It has already started!

This article is an exclusive article of Guancha.com. The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It cannot be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Guancha.com WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.