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Securities Times reporter Wu Qi

The 2024 semi-annual performance forecasts of A-share listed companies have been disclosed one after another, and the stocks that public funds hold heavily are facing challenges.

Data shows that the performance of the stocks held by many well-known fund managers in the first half of the year was excellent, even exceeding market expectations. At the same time, after some companies with positive semi-annual performance forecasts were released, fund managers urgently arranged to investigate the performance.

Public offering targets high-performing targets

Judging from the median year-on-year growth rate of the semi-annual report performance forecasts, Industrial Securities statistics show that among the sub-sectors with higher disclosure rates, oil and gas exploration, marine equipment, sports, semiconductors, personal care products, electronic chemicals, airports, refining and trading, new metal materials and special steels are at the top of the growth rate.

The performance forecast disclosed by Zhongji Xuchuan, the global optical module leader with a market value of over 160 billion yuan, shows that its net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the first half of the year is expected to increase by 250.3% to 307.33% compared with the same period last year.

Many public fund products with outstanding performance this year have heavily invested in computing power stocks. For example, Morgan Stanley Digital Economy Hybrid, Manulife Economic Pilot Two-Year Holding, Manulife Economic Smart Selection 18-Month Holding A, and Soochow Mobile Internet Fund all heavily invested in computing power stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuan and Xinyisheng. Soochow Mobile Internet Fund, which recently disclosed its quarterly fund report, continued to increase its holdings in Zhongji Xuchuan in the second quarter.

With the emergence of the AI ​​track, public funds have successively allocated large amounts of AI computing power companies since 2023. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, fund companies held nearly 170 million shares of Zhongji Xuchuan, accounting for more than 20% of the company's outstanding shares. Fund companies held about 30% of Xinyisheng's outstanding shares.

Goertek, the leader of the "Apple chain", expects a net profit of 1.181 billion yuan to 1.265 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 180% to 200%. Goertek continued its upward trend, and on July 16, its stock price hit a new high since April 2023. Goertek was once a company heavily held by public funds. Its performance has been sluggish in recent years and it was once abandoned by institutional investors. Data shows that the proportion of funds holding the company has dropped from 20.76% at the end of 2021 to 3.27% at the end of 2022. As the company's profitability has improved and the AI ​​big model has driven the expectations of consumer electronics boom, Goertek has recently returned to the vision of institutional investors. For example, Goertek entered the list of the top ten heavily held stocks of the Soochow Mobile Internet Fund managed by Liu Yuanhai for the first time in the second quarter of this year, and ranked third in the fund's heavily held stocks. As early as the end of 2023, Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng Fund, Qiao Qian of Xingzheng Global Fund, and Wang Keyu of Hongde Fund all began to allocate Goertek.

In addition, among the companies that released their semi-annual reports with positive performance forecasts, Haida Group, Sailun Tire, and Weilan Technology are all heavily held by public funds.

Frequently investigate high-performing companies

After some companies disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts, fund managers urgently arranged research, hoping to explore the secrets behind the companies' high growth rates in performance.

For example, on the day when Zhongji Xuchuan released its earnings forecast, more than 60 public fund companies participated in the research activities. In the communication with the institutions, the company responded to some market concerns. On the evening of July 14, Weichai Power released its first half earnings forecast. Subsequently, Weichai Power organized two consecutive institutional research activities on July 15 and July 16, with a total of 12 public fund companies participating in the research activities.

On July 10, Shenzhen South Circuit released an announcement of expected performance increase, and the company's stock price subsequently rose to the daily limit. Since then, the company has organized three batches of research in succession, and many public fund companies have participated in it. Shenzhen South Circuit's latest stock price hit a new high in the past three years, and the year-to-date increase has expanded to 86%. On July 9, Shengyi Electronics' net profit in the first half of 2024 is expected to increase by 876.88% to 1049.27% ​​year-on-year. On July 12, more than 50 public funds participated in the company's research.

On July 9, Shenzhen MTC announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the first half of the year increased by 21.21% to 26.66% year-on-year. In terms of institutional research, Shenzhen MTC received 142 surveys from 114 institutions on July 9, and more than 30 public funds including Southern Fund, GF Fund, and ICBC Credit Suisse Fund participated in the survey. The company stated in the survey that with the continuous implementation of new technology cost reduction paths, the company's chip profitability has increased significantly.

Wind data shows that as of July 16, dozens of listed companies with expected performance increases in the first half of the year have received institutional research. The semi-annual report performance forecast is just the "appetizer" of the semi-annual report disclosure. As more companies disclose complete semi-annual reports, some companies with better profitability will undoubtedly receive more institutional attention.

Institutional name

Fundamental concerns are expected to ease

From the historical perspective, China Merchants Securities analyzed that in recent years, industries with higher profit growth in semi-annual reports generally achieved higher returns in July and August. Combined with the performance forecasts and other data disclosed recently, three industries are expected to have higher growth in semi-annual report performance: first, export chain-related fields, such as small household appliances, auto parts, and construction machinery; second, some TMT fields, such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, and communication equipment; third, price increase fields, such as transportation and some sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals.

Regarding the future market trend, Huaan Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department believes that factors such as the suspension of securities lending business will help the Shanghai and Shenzhen core stock indexes stabilize and adjust, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen core stock indexes may enter a period of stabilization, adjustment, or even rebound. The country's attention to the development of new quality productivity continues to increase, and funds have maintained a high level of attention to growth sectors with improved fundamentals.

July is the peak period for the disclosure of earnings forecasts in the first half of the year. As some industries gradually disclose their earnings forecasts, Caitong Fund believes that market concerns about fundamentals are expected to ease and market sentiment is expected to be further boosted. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to financial reports and economic structural highlights, including the AI ​​industry chain that resonates with the global industry cycle, export chain opportunities with high certainty, and high-dividend industries driven by the new "Nine National Policies".

Wang Dapeng, director of Morgan Stanley Fund Research Management, predicts that the performance of listed companies will gradually improve from the second half of the year, and with many positive factors, there are still structural opportunities. In terms of specific directions, we are optimistic about the field of science and technology manufacturing. It is expected that the performance of the technology sector in the future will be mainly dominated by domestic factors. We are optimistic about the performance of industries such as semiconductors and domestic computing power. The machinery and equipment industry has benefited from the high prosperity of overseas manufacturing and the introduction of large-scale equipment renewal policies in China, and it is also worthy of attention. Areas of predicament reversal are also worthy of attention. These industries have been affected by policies, the industry's own cycles, etc., and their stock prices have fallen in the past two years, but they are expected to improve this year. Among them, there is considerable long-term upside space, such as military industry, medicine, lithium batteries, etc., which may usher in a turning point in the second half of the year. In addition, high dividends are expected to continue to be a sector that obtains stable absolute returns.

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