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research shows that the "national basic income" is equivalent to one more national day holiday every year (without adjusting the holiday version), changing the salary from 13 to 12.

author | moonshot

editor | jingyu

artificial intelligence has been popular for two years. before ai became popular, the "existential crisis" of work came first. there are endless discussions on the internet about when artificial intelligence can replace human jobs and what kind of jobs it can replace. when discussing the moral and ethical boundaries of artificial intelligence, "warning against the large-scale unemployment caused by artificial intelligence and causing social panic" is also one of them.

but the vast majority of people work not because of love, but because they have to work for income and life - "if you don't work, you won't have food to eat" is the reason why countless people are anxious about artificial intelligence "stealing jobs".

the big guys in the artificial intelligence industry are more concerned about this issue than we are.

open ai ceo sam altman has been saying publicly,after artificial intelligence eliminates traditional jobs, it will lead to large wealth reserves held by a few people. the government needs to give everyone a basic income to survive.。

even as early as early 2016, altman blogged about basic income, seeking full-time researchers to explore the effects of giving a group of people a basic income for five years.

sam altman is not the only silicon valley tycoon who thinks so. elon musk and ai godfather geoffrey hinton also hold similar opinions.

extending to the political world, andrew yang, a political celebrity who attracted much attention in silicon valley a few years ago, ran for president. his campaign promise was "give every u.s. citizen over 18 years of age $1,000 a month regardless of income or employment status。」

in reality, artificial intelligence has not yet developed to the stage where it can replace human labor on a large scale. this policy of "spending money to everyone" is too radical, but this does not prevent sam altman from taking precautions. he asked open, another non-profit organization under his umbrella, to research began conducting a "basic income test" on a small scale in the united states in 2020. the experiment lasted for three years and the results were announced this summer.

will basic income lead to a utopia that finally liberates human productivity, or will it be an extreme gap under cyberpunk, or a short-lived ripple after throwing stones into the lake?

01

how to send it, how to use it

the rules of the "basic income" project are simple. starting in november 2020 and ending in october 2023, open research randomly selected 3,000 subjects from texas and illinois. they needed to be aged 21-40 and have an annual income of no more than 3 times the u.s. poverty line (i.e. $1,255/month per person).1,000 project participants are given $1,000 per month, no strings attached, and a reference group of 2,000 people receive $50 per month。

it is the largest and longest-running direct money experiment ever conducted.sam altman paid out a total of $45 million out of his own pocket。

altman once wrote in the blog "basic income" in 2016, "after receiving income, will people sit and play games or create new things? will people feel happy and satisfied? will they get rid of their need for food and clothing? fear, and then achieve more and bring more benefits to society. overall, can people who receive a basic income create more economic value than they receive?”

previous conclusions drawn by the stanford basic income lab on the use of basic income｜source: stanford university

combining data from monthly active diaries, phone interviews, credit reports, consumption records and even changes in biological signs of 3,000 subjects over three years, the study spawned two papers totaling nearly 300 pages, partially answering the question. sam altman's question.

research shows thatsubjects spent an average of $310 more per month, mainly on housing, food and transportation. similarly, their income also dropped by an average of us$125, but this was not due to poor performance, but because they chose to reduce extra work. in other words, they no longer traded "more work" for "more gain."

the subjects' working hours were reduced by approximately 1.3 hours per week, which is equivalent to 8 fewer working days per year.。

correspondingly, their job opportunities also decreased by 2%, but their probability of actively looking for a job increased by 10%, and the rate of subjects wanting to start a business or pursue a better education increased significantly.

in terms of health, the research team followed 1,206 subjects for three years on biomarkers such as cholesterol, diabetes risk, and hypertension, and the results showed that there was almost no change. but after the financial pressure was reduced, the subjects were generally mentally healthier and more likely to take the initiative to see a doctor. the probability of seeing a dentist increased by 10%, and many subjects said they reduced their use of painkillers and alcohol. ingestion.

the team believes that, over a longer period of time, providing a basic income would lead to indirect improvements in health.

subjects spent an additional $20 per month on medical care｜source: open research

because of the confidence brought by basic income, the subjects reduced their fear of falling into poverty and the anxiety of not wanting to stop, and their psychological pressure was significantly reduced. this was the key to changing many of the subjects' life decisions and ideas. , and even make low-income people become charitable.

"what surprised me most was that compared with the two groups of people who received $1,000 and $50, the biggest increase in spending was financial aid to others." the experimental report showed that the subjects would use the funds they received. use it to give gifts to friends and family, donate to charity, and send money to an incarcerated relative. or give them more time and space to think about their own life trajectory.

for example, the subject alina, who is also a single mother, said in the interview, "my whole thinking has begun to change... i think i have the ability to plan my life." dominic, who is working during the epidemic, said "a basic income can help i had a period of peace of mind when i was doing nothing, and i was able to explore what i really wanted from life.” some subjects moved out of a friend’s basement and started renting an apartment to live independently, and they no longer believed that they could accomplish anything. there are also subjects who are taking the postgraduate entrance examination, relying on the basic income to avoid the dilemma of working and studying, and successfully admitted to the postgraduate entrance examination.

it seems that basic income allows subjects who were originally struggling to make a living to choose to take a short break and reduce their working hours, giving people who were originally trapped in the whirlpool of life the courage to face life again.

"money brings possibilities"｜source: open research

apart from food, clothing, housing and transportation, what the subjects exchanged most for basic income was: leisure time. a previous report on a similar experiment involving 7,500 subjects in six states also stated that "married men reduced their working hours by an average of 7% after three years of the program, while married and single women's working hours decreased by 17%. %.

as mentioned at the beginning, people are not worried about artificial intelligence replacing jobs, but they are worried about losing the income brought by their jobs and making it difficult to maintain their lives.the focus is not on work, but on money and life。

after the decision was made, the timeline was extended. due to the reduction in working hours, the average annual income of the $1,000 basic income group increased to $45,710 three years later, and the average annual income of the $50 subsidy group increased to $50,970. the difference between the two groups was 10.4 %, which is equivalent to the difference between getting a 12th salary and a 13th salary.

therefore,at the end of the experiment, the people who had received basic income for three years had to return to a more severe economic dilemma than the subsidy group.。

02

not a problem with ai

open research did not participate in artificial intelligence during the three-year experiment, and artificial intelligence has not yet reached the stage of replacing human labor. however, under the influence of the threat theory of artificial intelligence in recent years, combined with the background of the global economic downturn caused by the epidemic, the concept of "basic income" has become more and more recognized and discussed by the public.

in november last year, musk said in a conversation with british prime minister sunak that "artificial intelligence may eventually eliminate the need for everyone to work." "ai godfather" geoffrey hinton also mentioned in the interview that "it is recommended that the government should consider implement a universal basic income to address the potential inequality caused by unemployment caused by artificial intelligence. sam altman conducted a three-year social experiment with real money.

but basic income is not essentially a scientific topic, but a political and economic issue that has existed for a long time, that is, universal and unconditional basic income.(universal basic income, referred to as ubi).

abhijit banerjee, a development economist who has won the nobel prize in economics, published a report in 2019 stating that ubi policies in low-income countries affect "income, assets, savings, borrowings, total expenditures, food expenditures, dietary diversity, school enrollment rates, test scores, cognitive development, access to sanitation, labor force participation, child labor migration, domestic violence, women's empowerment, marriage, fertility and contraception. these fields surround all aspects of everyone’s social life, but are not directly related to artificial intelligence. these social problems already existed long before artificial intelligence brought unemployment.

march in support of basic income in switzerland in 2013｜source: ubi

other basic income experiments similar to open research are also emerging one after another, such as the "guaranteed income plan", "seed plan", etc., but the conclusions are highly consistent. a guaranteed fixed income allows subjects to have more time to pursue what they want to do. activities, researchers call this "solve the problem of scarcity of time caused by scarcity of funds."

this conclusion is also consistent with the original intention of sam altman's idealism. he once wrote in "moore's law of all things" "the ai ​​revolution. this revolution will create enough wealth... every citizen will gradually share in the benefits of economic self-determination" poverty will be greatly reduced and more people will have the opportunity to live the lives they want."

in the ideal society after the ai ​​revolution conceived by sam altman, ai has liberated human productivity, and humans can choose to engage in more creative careers, or accompany their loved ones, cultivate their own interests, and appreciate art and nature . it is no longer necessary to spend at least 1/3 of your time every day in exchange for the remaining 1/3 that truly belongs to you.

however, history proves to some extent thatthe great development of productivity will not necessarily bring more rest time, but may lead to a wider gap between rich and poor and higher profit margins.。

time wealth and income inequality database｜source: world inequality report 2018

on may 1, 1886, thousands of strikers in chicago demanded "8 hours of work, 8 hours of rest, and 8 hours of free reign." thus, the eight-hour work system began in modern society.

in 138 years, technology has developed from the second industrial revolution to the era of artificial intelligence. however, "888" has become "996" with the support of modern technology. the always-on state brought by the mobile internet has made work and life inseparable. extremely long working hours plague countless workers around the world. however, compared with more than a hundred years ago, the place of death from overwork has moved from dark underground mines to bright and spacious workstations.

artificial intelligence and technology are not the core issues. politics and economics are the fundamental issues that need to be discussed about "basic income".

*source of header image: linkedin