news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

just after the mid-autumn festival, attentive netizens discovered that not only were high-end mooncakes unavailable, but even high-end liquor, which had been strong before, could no longer be sold.

affected by this, the stock price of kweichow moutai (600519), which has always been regarded as the benchmark for a-shares, experienced a rare consecutive decline from september 12 to 19. the stock price fell from 1,380 yuan at the closing price on september 11 to 1,261 yuan. about 9%, the market value evaporated by 150 billion yuan in just a few days. the market value fell from a high of 3.12 trillion to a closing price of 1.584 trillion on september 19, and the market value was almost halved.

on the evening of september 20, kweichow moutai announced that the company planned to repurchase shares for 3 billion to 6 billion yuan. this is the first time kweichow moutai has announced a share repurchase plan since its listing, and the maximum amount of shares it plans to repurchase ranks first among a-share listed companies since the beginning of this year.

previously, in the a-share market, a stock that was strong and had a high market value would usually be dubbed "xx mao". for example, haitian flavor industry was dubbed "soy sauce mao", pien tze huang was dubbed "medical mao", etc., leaving many investors with no idea. what comes to mind is that moutai, which has symbolized its stock price for so many years, will also encounter waterloo in 2024. entering 2024, the opening stock price on january 2 was 1,684.12 yuan/share, a drop of 25% during the year. the market value has evaporated by more than 530 billion yuan.

not only moutai, the share price of the liquor industry is almost similar to that of moutai. wuliangye's share price fell by 18% during the year, and luzhou laojiao's share price fell by more than 40% during the year... feitian moutai, which has been regarded as "the emperor's daughter has no worries about marrying", has also seen prices rise. fall after fall. according to the liquor price trend on september 19, the original box price is 2,500 yuan/bottle, and the loose bottle price is 2,365 yuan/bottle. according to li dongwei, a former moutai retailer, during the 2023 spring festival, the original box price of feitian moutai exceeded 3,000 yuan per bottle and was in short supply, and the price of loose bottles exceeded 2,800 yuan. in just one year, the price of feitian moutai dropped by almost 500 yuan per bottle.

unlike moutai, which has a strong brand value, as the leader in the liquor industry, moutai can still make huge profits even if it cuts prices. however, it is difficult for the other 20 liquor companies to do the same as moutai, so the luzhou laojiao crossover appeared. regarding the phenomenon of making condiments, a well-known wine company worked hard to start a side business, or it was helpless under performance pressure.

is moutai’s status still stable?

no matter how moutai's stock price falls, moutai's position as the no. 1 brother in the liquor industry is as stable as mount tai.

the latest financial report shows that in the first half of 2024, moutai's revenue was 83.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. calculating the actual number of days in the first half of the year, moutai’s daily revenue was as high as 460 million yuan, and its daily net profit was 230 million yuan.

moutai's high profits come from its own high gross profit margin. in the first half of the year, moutai's gross profit margin reached 91.76% and its net profit margin was 52.7%, both the highest among the 21 listed liquor companies. comparing the above data for the same period, wuliangye's revenue was 50.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; net profit was 19.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.86%. the gross profit margin and net profit margin during the same period were 77.36% and 39.15% respectively. luzhou laojiao's revenue for the same period was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%; net profit was 8.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. the gross profit margin and net profit margin are 88.57% and 47.60%. moutai is the only liquor company with a gross profit margin of over 90% and a net profit margin of over 50%.

by comparing the mid-term report data of moutai, wuliangye and luzhou laojiao, you may feel the anxiety of luzhou laojiao. not only did its net profit margin fall by 1.2 percentage points, its revenue growth dropped from 25.11% in the same period last year to 15.81%, and its net profit the growth rate also dropped from 28.17% in the same period last year to 13.22%, making it the largest decline among major wine companies. moreover, there is a large gap between luzhou laojiao’s revenue and net profit and that of leading liquor companies, so the possibility of breaking through and overtaking the liquor industry is slim.

li dongwei, who was previously engaged in the sales of high-end liquor such as moutai, has now changed his career. "the situation of high-end liquor has changed a lot now. affected by the global macroeconomic environment, consumers' desire to consume has been suppressed. the consumption habits of young people are changing. in addition, the business volume of enterprises due to various factors such as the decline in sales and the reduction of non-essential expenses, the decline of high-end liquor may become the norm for a long time.”

have they turned around and started side jobs?

in today's economic wave of diversified development, liquor companies are actively seeking transformation and breakthroughs, and are getting involved in side businesses other than liquor. this not only broadens the company's business boundaries, but also achieves rapid growth and in-depth exploration of brand value.

take moutai group as an example. as a leader in china's liquor industry, moutai has not stopped at the brewing and sales of high-end liquor. instead, it has successfully explored multiple sideline areas by virtue of its strong brand influence and financial strength. among them, the launch of moutai ice cream is an eye-catching highlight.

by combining traditional liquor culture with modern dessert consumption trends, moutai ice cream not only satisfies consumers' pursuit of fresh experiences, but also extends moutai's brand value to a wider range of consumer groups, achieving brand rejuvenation and market expansion. dual goals. this cross-border attempt not only allows the moutai brand to appear in the public eye with a more friendly and fashionable image, but also brings considerable performance growth points to it.

there is also wuliangye group, which while consolidating its main liquor business, is also actively extending into cultural tourism, financial investment and other fields. wuliangye has created industrial tourism projects, such as wuliangye liquor culture expo park, which integrates brewing technology display, cultural experience and tourism, attracting a large number of tourists to visit and experience, which not only enhances the brand image, but also drives the development of the local economy . in addition, wuliangye has also established a financial investment company and participated in capital market operations, achieving a positive interaction between capital and industry and injecting new vitality into the development of the enterprise.

in fact, luzhou laojiao does not make condiments on a whim.

in march 2023, sichuan yuanjingda food co., ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of luzhou laojiao group, acquired huguo mature vinegar co., ltd. and changed its name and upgraded it to huguo flavor industry, marking the official entry of luzhou laojiao group into the large-scale market. food track. but this is not the first time luzhou laojiao has entered the condiment track. as early as october 2001, luzhou laojiao purchased the century-old brand "baoning vinegar" with a debt of 30 million yuan. at that time, yuan xiuping, chairman of luzhou laojiao group, said that the acquisition of baoning vinegar was an unprecedented unity of brothers, a strong alliance, and a synergistic effect. according to modern industrial classification, baoning vinegar also belongs to the brewing industry and is also in line with "big food" in principle.

after luzhou laojiao acquired huguo mature vinegar, its stock price performance over the past year or so has not been very good. in march 2023, the stock price of luzhou laojiao was about 250 yuan per share, but the closing stock price on july 11, 2024 was 136.85 yuan. after the acquisition of huguo mature vinegar, the overall performance of luzhou laojiao’s stock price showed a downward trend, with a total decline of 45 %, which is considered to be a relatively high decline among many listed wine companies. as of the close of trading on september 27, luzhou laojiao's total market value was 200.3 billion yuan, and its market value had evaporated by 260 billion yuan from its high point.

since luzhou laojiao's cross-border condiment production failed to impress the capital market, how did haitian flavor industry, which has always been producing condiments, perform in its stock price during the same period? will luzhou laojiao’s entry into seasonings have a certain impact on haitian flavor industry? public information shows that in march 2023, the share price of haitian flavor industry was as high as 67.67 yuan/share. as of the closing of september 27, the stock price of haitian flavor industry was 43.80 yuan/share. compared with the high point, the market value has evaporated by more than 130 billion. yuan.

however, it is worth noting that the diets in the north and south of my country are quite different, and consumers in different regions have greatly different taste preferences for condiments. when products enter the market, it is difficult to achieve unified national standards, which has become an urgent problem for many companies. at the same time, with the cross-border entry of many companies, market competition has become more brutal, and it is easy to fall into the dilemma of homogeneous competition. there are only a few condiment companies that have truly achieved national layout. haitian flavors, qianhe flavors and china ju gaoxin has become a leader in the condiment market. new entrants such as luzhou laojiao, three squirrels, and qixi currently have a low market share in the condiment market and are temporarily unable to shake the strong position of brands such as haitian flavor industry. .

are sideline gross profit margins and net profit margins reaching new highs?

it has become an inevitable trend for liquor companies to explore the second growth curve. through cross-border integration, cultural tourism, digital transformation and other methods, liquor companies can continuously expand their business boundaries and achieve diversified development. these new growth points not only bring new performance growth to the company, but more importantly, they inject new vitality and innovation power into the liquor industry.

liquor companies are doing very well in side businesses, and luzhou laojiao is one example.

luzhou laojiao’s performance in 2023 is good. the financial report shows that luzhou laojiao's revenue exceeded 30 billion yuan for the first time in 2023, reaching 30.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.34%; the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 13.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%. however, the growth rate of revenue and net profit in 2023 will slow down compared with 2021 and 2022. in 2021, luzhou laojiao's revenue will increase by 23.96%, and its net profit will increase by 32.47%; in 2022, its revenue will increase by 21.71%, and its net profit will increase by 30.91%. the revenue growth in 2023 is higher than the 5.28% in 2020 in the past nine years, while the growth in net profit is the lowest in the past nine years.

what is gratifying for luzhou laojiao is that in 2023, luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin was as high as 88.30%, and its net profit margin was as high as 43.95%, both hitting record highs. luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin is second only to kweichow moutai's 91.96%, and its net profit margin is also second only to kweichow moutai's 52.49%, which is higher than wuliangye's gross profit margin and net profit margin of 75.79% and 37.85, respectively. among the 20 listed liquor companies, luzhou laojiao ranks second in both gross profit margin and net profit margin. in the first half of 2024, the gross profit margin and net profit margin will also be higher than wuliangye.

from 2019 to 2023, luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin was 80.62%, 83.05%, 85.70%, 86.59% and 88.30%. the gross profit margin increased by 7.68 percentage points in five years. the net interest rates during the same period were 29.35%, 35.78%, 38.45%, 41.44% and 43.95% respectively. the net interest rates increased by 14.6 percentage points in five years. in the past five years, luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown a continuous improvement trend.

in the first quarter of 2024, luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin and net profit margin will continue to rise. the gross profit margin in the first quarter was 88.37%, and the net profit margin was 49.83%. there was an increase compared to the same period last year. the first quarter is the peak season for liquor sales, and the gross profit margin is relatively high compared to the whole year. it is worth noting that since the acquisition of huguo mature vinegar, luzhou laojiao’s gross profit margin has been around 88% for five consecutive quarters. except for the low in the fourth quarter of 2023, the net profit margin has also been around 48%, both of which are at the level of liquor. industry high position.

as we all know, distiller's grains are the main raw material for brewing mature vinegar. when it comes to the "baoning vinegar" and "huguo mature vinegar" purchased by luzhou laojiao, the high gross profit margin of luzhou laojiao is related to the maximum utilization of its production raw materials. it was not disclosed in the financial report. when bt finance checked the raw materials of huguo mature vinegar, it did not find distiller's grains. however, it is an indisputable fact that distiller's grains can be used to make vinegar. luzhou laojiao's gross profit margin and net profit margin have increased significantly in recent years. there may also be raw materials for brewing technology. the possibility of being used as condiments is of course directly related to the improvement of its brand power.

it has become an industry trend for wine companies to look for ways to break through, but not every company can increase both revenue and profits like luzhou laojiao. with the changes in the market environment and the diversification of consumer preferences, the high-end liquor market is gradually showing signs of cooling off. this change not only tests the market acumen of liquor companies, but also puts forward higher requirements for their strategic adjustment and innovation capabilities.

facing the challenges in the high-end liquor market, how liquor companies should respond and find new development directions has become the focus of the industry. however, in the face of challenges in the high-end liquor market, liquor companies are actively seeking ways to transform and break through, and by continuously improving their competitiveness and innovation capabilities, this is an unbreakable truth.

author | meng xiao