lu ting: guaranteeing the delivery of housing is the focus of real estate stabilization, and the direction of fiscal efforts should be tilted towards household income.
2024-09-28
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red star capital bureau reported on september 28 that at the 2024 tsinghua pbc chief economist forum held today, nomura securities china chief economist lu ting pointed out that traditional monetary policy has limited space, and fiscal relay is needed next. "in terms of the direction of fiscal efforts, i think a recent consensus is that we cannot just stimulate infrastructure production as before, we must pay attention to consumption, and we must pay attention to household income." he also mentioned that the direction of fiscal efforts should be tilt towards household income and consumption. more are beginning to consider specific supports, especially for low- and middle-income groups and disadvantaged groups.
lu ting
lu ting reminded that when the stock market is rising sharply, one should stay calm about economic fundamentals. he believes that the stock market will take some time to recover, but the financing mechanism of the stock market should be restored in an orderly manner at the appropriate time.
regarding the real estate market, lu ting emphasized that real estate stability is an important prerequisite for economic stability, and ensuring housing delivery should be the focus of current work. "in the short term, the basic operations of local governments should be maintained by increasing government bond issuance and transfer payments, especially in places without stable industrial base income. in the medium term, priority should be given to ensuring the delivery of housing and increasing expenditures through specific groups of people."
in terms of structural reform, lu ting pointed out that fiscal reform is urgent and structural reform needs to be considered while increasing spending. in terms of specific policy suggestions, lu ting put forward two points.
first of all, in terms of real estate, he believes that the key to solving real estate problems is to guarantee the delivery of housing. he pointed out that the important system of china's real estate is the pre-sale system, which means that a large number of new home sales are off-plan properties rather than spot properties. therefore, it is necessary to solve the problems of market failure and government failure in the pre-sale system, rebuild market confidence, and let buyers know that they can buy a house.
lu ting suggested that the central government should allocate funds equivalent to us$1 trillion to solve the problem of guaranteed housing delivery. although this number may be higher, clearing the market and rebuilding confidence are the keys to the real estate market stopping the decline and stabilizing.
in addition, lu ting put forward policy suggestions for social security pensions. he pointed out that reducing existing mortgage interest rates and guaranteeing the delivery of housing can help the middle class, while social security and pensions can also effectively improve residents' income expectations and spending power through low-cost methods.
red star news reporter wang tian
editor deng lingyao
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