humanoid robots, how many surprises are there?
2024-09-25
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chao news client reporter zheng yali wang kaiyi
one evening, while watching tv, you said to the humanoid robot, "i'm thirsty." then it walked to the refrigerator, took out a can of your favorite coke, came back and handed it to you.
this day is not far away.
humanoid robots are robots with humanoid form and functions that integrate high-end manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. they are the strategic commanding heights of robotics technology and a new track for future industries.
at present, this highly imaginative industry has been regarded as one of the representative industries for developing new quality productivity, and its layout has been accelerated across the country.
the "implementation plan for the innovation and development of the humanoid robot industry in zhejiang province (2024-2027)" recently issued by zhejiang province proposes that by 2027, the annual output of humanoid robots in zhejiang province will reach 20,000 units, the scale of the core industry will reach 20 billion yuan, and the scale of related industries will reach 50 billion yuan.
yongjinjun conducted research and visits to find out what stage this hot industry has reached and what surprises it will bring.
01 why are humanoid robots so popular?
this year, humanoid robots have appeared quite frequently. whether it is the yunqi conference or the 2024 world robot conference, humanoid robots are the "most popular" at the venue.
there are also many developments in humanoid robots: following the evolution of optimus, tesla announced that it will start small-scale production of humanoid robots next year; hangzhou yushu technology's unitree g1 is sold to the public starting at 99,000 yuan; wuhan university's first humanoid robot "tianwen" was unveiled...
tesla's "optimus prime" robot can sort tesla electric car 4680 batteries as accurately as humans. image source: screenshot of the video on tesla's official website.
in fact, thanks to the accumulation of technologies such as precision manufacturing, high-end sensors, and automatic control, the united states, japan, and europe are generally at the leading level in research on humanoid robots, but the road to commercialization is not easy.
in october 2000, japan's honda motor co., ltd. launched the asimo robot, which led the industry in motion interaction capabilities. however, due to its high cost, it was difficult to commercialize and was discontinued in 2018.
why are humanoid robots popular again today?
"first, the manufacturing industry has the possibility of reducing costs, and second, the ripple effect created by the large model."dr. guo jishun hit the nail on the head. guo jishun is the dean and chief scientist of the junpu artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics research institute. he is leading the junpu intelligent humanoid robot research and development project. currently, the first generation of humanoid robot jarvis 1.0 has been launched, and the second generation product will be officially released in the second half of the year.
in guo jishun's view, thanks to china's strong supply chain system and relatively complete manufacturing base, key components of humanoid robots have the ability to be mass-produced. the emergence of multimodal large models gives humanoid robots the opportunity to have a stronger "brain" and autonomous execution capabilities.
wang xingxing, founder of yushu technology, once publicly stated that most of the robot's actions need to be trained individually, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. they hope to have an ai model that can support robots to perform more complex operations and have better operating capabilities, such as watching a video or doing some simple demonstrations to fully learn an action.
technological breakthroughs have reignited people’s enthusiasm for humanoid robots, and the window period for industrial development has accelerated industrial development.
which is easier, making cars or making humanoid robots? guo jishun's answer is the latter. from the perspective of composition, the industrial chain of humanoid robots is shorter than that of cars, and the manufacturing difficulty is lower than that of cars. "compared with the competitive development of cars, the window period left for technology companies to develop humanoid robots is much shorter."
the "2024 china humanoid robot industry development blue book" shows that the chinese humanoid robot market size in 2024 will be 2.158 billion yuan, and is predicted to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030.
tesla, xiaomi and other technology companies have joined this new blue ocean. as stated in the "guiding opinions on the innovation and development of humanoid robots" issued by the ministry of industry and information technology last year, humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, which will profoundly change human production and lifestyle and reshape the global industrial development pattern.
02 “you can assemble a humanoid robot without leaving the province”
humanoid robots are very popular, and there are many in zhejiang.
the humanoid robot is divided into three parts: the brain, cerebellum and the whole machine. the whole machine is the hardware part, including the limbs and related functional components; the cerebellum is responsible for maintaining body balance and controlling movement stability; the brain is responsible for giving instructions and determines the robot's "iq".
in short, to be a qualified humanoid robot, it must have the "three major components" of an intelligent brain, an agile cerebellum, and flexible limbs.
looking across the country, some places are good at making complete machines, while others specialize in core components. in zhejiang, the performance of the "three major components" is remarkable.
"zhejiang's humanoid robot industry chain is relatively complete, covering major links such as complete machines, core components, and software systems." a relevant person in charge of the future industry division of the provincial department of economic and information technology said that according to preliminary surveys, zhejiang has 79 core enterprises, with hangzhou and ningbo leading the province in terms of the number of enterprises, and key component supporting enterprises are distributed in shaoxing, wenzhou, jiaxing, taizhou and other places.
from the perspective of complete machines, zhejiang, beijing, guangdong, shanghai and other places are in the first echelon in the country.at present, seven companies in zhejiang have released complete machine products, namely yushu technology, wuba intelligence, and yunshenchu in hangzhou, humanoid robot innovation center, junpu intelligence, and dongzi technology in ningbo, and hechuan technology in quzhou.
among them, unitree technology is at the leading level in the industry in terms of body motion control. earlier this year, unitree technology's unitree h1 set a world record for the speed of a full-size humanoid robot with a movement speed of 3.3 meters per second, and a potential speed of more than 5m/s, making it the most powerful humanoid robot of similar specifications in the world.
unitree h1. image source: unitree technology wechat official account
strong supporting core components is another advantage of zhejiang.as we all know, zhejiang's automobile parts manufacturing covers the entire industrial chain. the integrated joints, reducers, screws, etc. required for automobile production are also supporting humanoid robots.
this makes the parts matching of humanoid robots quite smooth. for example, in terms of integrated joints, sanhua intelligent control, ningbo top, etc. are all outstanding; in terms of reducers, the rv reducer with dual-ring transmission is the leading one in china; in terms of dexterous hands, there are qiangnao technology and ruobilin; in terms of motors, there are wolong electric drive, quzhou hechuan technology, etc.
the relevant person in charge of zhejiang humanoid robot innovation center co., ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "innovation center"), which was established in ningbo at the end of last year, said that they chose ningbo because of the local rapid response supporting capabilities. now, about 30% of the core components of the humanoid robots of the innovation center can be found in ningbo.
zhejiang can also send players in terms of intelligent systems.for example, in terms of intelligent perception, visual sensing has obvious advantages, with industry leaders such as hikvision, dahua, and sunny optical. in terms of intelligent control, controller companies such as zhejiang zhongkong and xinkong intelligent have certain competitiveness.
in the era of automobile competition, zhejiang "can assemble a car without leaving the province". facing the trend of humanoid robots, zhejiang is expected to "assemble a humanoid robot without leaving the province".
03 what else is there to surprise you
at present, it is no longer a problem for humanoid robots to work in factories with a high level of intelligence (tightening screws, moving goods, doing quality inspection, etc.), serve as tour guides in exhibition halls, and work as sales clerks in stores.
what other surprises will humanoid robots bring in the future?
in the short term, humanoid robots are expected to be commercialized in industrial manufacturing scenarios, replacing humans to complete monotonous, frequent and repetitive tasks.
in august, the innovation center released the "navigator 2 naviai". after the update, this humanoid robot has a battery life of up to 2 hours, its arms are more resistant to impact, and its single-arm load capacity has been increased to 5 kg. this evolution took only 5 months.
navigator 2 naviai. image source: wechat official account of zhejiang humanoid robot innovation center co., ltd.
"humanoid robots need to be improved and perfected in practice, and rapid iteration is the means for them to mature." xu xuecheng, technical assistant of the innovation center, said that in the past period of time, they have worked hard to apply humanoid robots to some factories. in the process, they found that, for example, the limitation of the freedom of the robot's hands caused some scenes to fail to land. these feedbacks from reality are the inspiration and direction for their improvement and breakthrough.
junpu intelligence also sticks to the "ballast stone" of industry. junpu intelligence has rich experience in industrial robots and long-term experience in intelligent equipment for automotive parts. in the process of cooperation with partners, they have always focused on helping each other to implement industrial applications.
in their view, only by constantly "swimming" in practice can they improve their "swimming skills" and make humanoid robots in factories more and more "human-like".
in the medium and long term, humanoid robots will need to break through complex and sophisticated operating requirements to become true "hexagonal warriors" before they can be used commercially and enter family, education, medical and other scenarios.
for example, in the scene at the beginning of the article, humanoid robots need to enhance their perception, learning and adaptability.
"the commercialization of humanoid robots cannot be achieved overnight. it requires comprehensive technological breakthroughs and patience."xu xuecheng explained that the difficulty of humanoid robots is not the "human shape", but the comprehensive application of many technologies behind them, such as chips, artificial intelligence, software, sensors, etc.
in the future, the surprises of humanoid robots will lie in how to better combine software and hardware.
in terms of hardware, guo jishun believes that the technical direction is clear, but the technical details still need to be refined.for example, the sensors and lidars used in humanoid robots can be copied from the production experience of automotive parts, but a perfect balance needs to be found in terms of product size compression and cost adjustment.
in terms of software, more expectations are placed on multimodal large models.as a representative product of embodied intelligence, humanoid robots can not only observe the world, but also change the world, and have the ability to perceive, think and act like humans. this ability requires the development of a general multimodal large model adapted to humanoid robots, focusing on the "brain", "cerebellum", perception and other intelligent systems of humanoid robots.
in this way, humanoid robots that have both form and spirit are just around the corner.
many industry companies are more optimistic: the truly intelligent robots seen in science fiction movies are no longer a distant future, but are right in front of us.
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