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[since the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic, from 2020 to 2023, the u.s. real gdp has grown at a compound average rate of 1.96% over the four years. the u.s. real economy has already recovered to the level of 2019 as early as 2021.]

since 2022, under the background of the fed's aggressive tightening, the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar has continued to be under pressure due to the divergence of the economic cycle and monetary policy between china and the united states. with the fed's large-scale interest rate cut of 50 basis points in september 2024, the curtain of us monetary easing has officially been opened, which means that the aforementioned divergence has converged, which will help ease the pressure of capital outflow and exchange rate adjustment in china. since the end of july 2024, the rmb exchange rate trading price at home and abroad has stopped falling and rebounded. by september 20, it had risen from 7.30 to around 7.05 to 1, rebounding by more than 3% from the low point of the year. in august, the bank's forward (including options) settlement and sale of foreign exchange, which reflects the main foreign exchange supply and demand relationship in the country, ended a 13-month deficit and recorded a surplus of us$13.2 billion. however, with the inverted interest rates between china and foreign countries, adjustments in the stock and property markets, and long-term low inflation, can this trend of the rmb continue? observing japan's experience since the 1980s and 1990s may provide us with some answers.

the appreciation of the yen was achieved under the condition of long-term negative interest rate differential between japan and the united states.

after the end of world war ii, the u.s. occupation authorities formulated the "dodge plan" to stabilize the japanese economy, balance the fiscal budget, and curb inflation. an important part of the plan was to implement a fixed exchange rate system, setting the yen-dollar exchange rate at 360 to 1. with the takeoff of japan's economy and the gradual collapse of the bretton woods system, the yen has fluctuated and appreciated since the 1970s, with the highest rise exceeding 80 and now around 140 to 1. people may take it for granted that the appreciation of the yen should benefit from the positive interest rate differential between japan and the united states, but the actual situation is quite the opposite. for most of the time, the interest rates between japan and the united states are inverted.