hiroyuki akita, a well-known japanese commentator: türkiye's "acrobatic diplomacy" has both opportunities and risks
2024-09-22
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reference news reported on september 22on september 19, the nihon keizai shimbun published an article titled "turkey promotes 'acrobatic diplomacy' to achieve independence," written by the newspaper's commentator hiroyuki akita. the article is excerpted as follows:
the future and destiny of the entire world is shrouded in thick fog.
in this situation, an emerging power is the biggest variable, that is turkey, which has a land area twice that of japan. about 100 years ago, turkey's predecessor, the ottoman empire, once stood out from the crowd and had a vast territory spanning the eurasian continent. today, turkey's weight in international politics has risen again. according to statistics from the "global firepower" website that tracks global defense information, turkey has a total military strength of about 355,000, second only to the united states within nato, and it is located at the intersection of europe, the middle east and asia, and its geopolitical position is very important.
in recent years, president erdogan, who leads turkey, has been committed to taking "his own path" and playing by his own rules. although turkey is a core member of nato, it has established a good relationship with russian president vladimir putin. erdogan has also expressed his intention to join the brics mechanism led by china and russia and the shanghai cooperation organization. intelligence shows that turkey has submitted an application for membership to the former. if a nato member becomes a brics country, this is absolutely unheard of.
in addition, while shaking hands with russia, türkiye also extended its hand to ukraine, which was at war with russia, and provided it with tb2 military drones.
what do the turks really think? how do they intend to influence international politics? in order to find out these questions, i went to turkey in early september to listen to the analysis of local diplomats and government officials.
most experts have expressed a sense of urgency about the decline of us hegemony and the continuous evolution of the multipolar process. in their view, relying solely on nato cannot protect the country's security. due to such concerns, turkey intends to join forces with all parties to fully insure itself in all directions.
çal erhan, a member of the security and foreign policy committee of the turkish presidential palace, said: "the decline of us hegemony has caused differences of opinion within nato. turkey must strengthen its relations with the east while consolidating its position in the west and be prepared for possible changes."
it can be said that there are hot spots everywhere around turkey. the syrian civil war has caused more than 3 million refugees to pour into turkey; in the border areas adjacent to iraq and syria, the fighting between kurdish armed groups committed to independence from turkey and the government has never subsided. in addition, turkey has long been at odds with greece over the cyprus issue.
in order to face the above threats independently, turkey has continuously expanded its military network, including establishing military bases or sending troops to iraq, azerbaijan, cyprus, qatar, and somalia, and sending a military advisory group to syria, which is in the midst of a civil war.
the head of the ankara office of the german marshall fund, a us think tank, believes that turkey's ability to maneuver is rooted in the historical genes of the late ottoman empire. in the 18th century, the ottoman empire lost its hegemony to western powers such as britain and russia. since then, in order to achieve its own modernization and survival, the ottoman empire has strengthened its relations with western powers on the one hand, and realized that it must allow competition among the powers on the other. turkey's balancing strategy of maintaining close relations with western countries while not relying on any major power has inherited this route.
what impact will turkey's diplomatic maneuvers have on international politics? if turkey insists on doing so, it will undermine the unity within nato. in 2023, turkey blocked sweden from joining nato on the grounds that sweden allowed kurdish groups to operate within the country, causing headaches for the united states and europe.
on the other hand, turkey's independent approach has indeed played a role in those issues that the west cannot solve independently. the country is increasing its involvement in african affairs to resolve possible conflicts, while nato's attitude towards africa is both ambiguous and wavering. in early august, turkey also mediated between the united states and russia, creating conditions for 26 prisoners detained in the united states, russia and other seven countries to return to their respective countries.
however, as long as turkey remains a member of nato, this kind of "acrobatic diplomacy" will face the risk of losing everything if it makes a wrong move. sinan jurgen, director of the turkish center for economic and foreign policy research, pointed out: "last year, 60% of turkey's inbound tourists and trade came from western countries. in this case, it is impossible to maintain an equidistant relationship with the west and the non-west. in the worst case, turkey will be kicked out of the western economic and political mechanism."
the crises caused by the russian-ukrainian conflict and the middle east conflict are still spreading. turkey can play a huge role in preventing the chaos from coming again. the best strategy for western countries is to take advantage of turkey's desire for independence and urge it to make positive contributions. (compiled by liu lin)
