news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

on september 18, the u.s. federal reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, directly to between 4.75% and 5.00%.

on the same day, the federal reserve also released a dot plot, with the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2024 being 4.4% (the expected value in the first half of the year was 5.1%), which means that there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points before the end of the year.

after the fed’s cut, the u.s. dollar index immediately plummeted, and the global capital market soared as if it had been injected with chicken blood.for the new forces, the first interest rate cut in four years allows them to finally take a breath and wait for the "money to come"!

why is the impact of the us dollar interest rate cut so great? where will the new energy vehicle industry go? kung fu auto has done some research.

(1) with the u.s. dollar interest rate cut, will it be easy to go public and raise funds again?

interest rate cuts have always been the most direct means of influencing financing. the biggest change is that the fed has lowered interest rates by 50 basis points and is expected to lower them by another 50 basis points. this has lowered borrowing costs, making it easier for companies and individuals to borrow money.

after the interest rate cut, companies will be more willing to invest and individuals will be more willing to consume. after all, the interest rate for deposits is getting lower and lower, and the cost of borrowing is also getting lower and lower, so it is inevitable that more investment and more consumption will increase.

these are actually secondary. the main reason is that the us dollar interest rate cut will cause changes in people's consumption concepts. the interest rate cut reduces the cost of over-consumption and increases expectations of rising inflation. people think that money will become more and more devalued, and only the money spent belongs to them, so they will naturally become more aggressive.

in order to stimulate consumption, the central bank has actually cut interest rates several times in recent years, but the effect has not been very good. the reason is very simple. as the global currency, the us dollar has been in a cycle of interest rate hikes, and money has flowed out.

this time, the us dollar interest rate cut means that the world's two largest economies have reached an agreement. the most direct impact is that financing will be opened.

(2) one step slower leads to regrets

the rise of new domestic forces is largely due to financing. on september 12, 2018, nio went public; on july 3, 2020, li auto went public; on august 27, 2020, xpeng went public.

these three companies are absolute "bonus groups" and have all the advantages.

when nio was rumored to be going public, its only product was the pure electric supercar ep9, which was purely used to show off its muscle. after that, it only had one model, es8, which was still positioned as an ultra-luxury model.

such a startup company achieved a total market value of us$6.313 billion on the day of its listing, establishing itself as the leader of new forces.

ideal auto was not as lucky as nio, and its launch was postponed for nearly two years. at that time, ideal one had already made some progress, but the average monthly sales volume did not exceed 3,000 units, and the total sales volume did not exceed 10,000. in this way, ideal was also listed.

that was also the peak period of financing for emerging forces. on the first day of listing, the market value of ideal auto reached us$13.9 billion, which also attracted a lot of attention.

xiaopeng went public almost simultaneously with ideal, and the two experienced similar experiences. but after xiaopeng, it became difficult for new forces to go public.

because the us dollar has been raising interest rates, financing has become increasingly difficult. apart from anything else, tesla's market value peaked in 2021, when it exceeded $1.2 trillion. now three years have passed, tesla's sales have increased a lot, but its market value has basically been "cut in half".

the subsequent listing of leapmotor was very "miserable". as the fourth new force to go public, leapmotor's foundation at the time of listing was many times stronger than that of its "predecessors". in 2022, when leapmotor was listed, this new force had sold nearly 80,000 new cars in the first eight months, and had initially established a "full-stack self-developed" system, vaguely showing the shadow of a "new technological force".

this is the case with leapmotor. its opening market value was 57.5 billion yuan (rmb), but it fell to 33.47 billion yuan (rmb) at the close of the day, and subscribers were wailing.

leapmotor boss zhu jiangming also had to admit that this is a bad period of time because the global situation is turbulent and in a downward channel.

but this was also the last moment when the door to listing and financing for new forces was closed. leapmotor's timely switch from a-shares to h-shares was decisive and lucky!

two years later, zeekr went public on the us stock market at a loss. judging from the data, zeekr is "the darling of the world". as a new car-making force with the "fastest ipo in history", zeekr only took three years to go public. in addition, zeekr sold 118,000 new cars in the year before its listing, which far exceeded the "nio, xiaoli, and li auto" before its listing.

the key is that zeekr is a typical example of "both quantity and quality", with excellent brand positioning, technology accumulation, and image building. however, even with such zeekr, its market value on the day of listing was only us$6.898 billion (approximately rmb 49.85 billion).

you should know that in the three years before its listing, zeekr’s cumulative losses exceeded 20 billion, which is a veritable "big hemorrhage."

this is the interesting thing about the market. everyone is doing the same thing, but because of the timing, there is a huge difference. is this fair? of course not, but there is no way to change it.

when the market is full of funds, investors are looking for projects. weixiaoli is a golden project in this period. it has received huge financing just by showing good potential.

when there is insufficient capital in the market, even a company like zeekr that does very well in all aspects will suffer.

(3) new forces extend its life. has aion finally waited for the right opportunity?

fortunately, the us dollar interest rate cut cycle has finally arrived, which also means that the new forces that are extremely dependent on financing can finally take a breath.

in the past few years, many emerging forces have collapsed. the most typical example is weimar, which failed to hold on after several attempts to go public.

of course, there are also many new forces that are just one step away from success and are about to undergo major changes, such as aion, which has already begun preparing for an ipo.

with the two models of aion s and aion y, aion has always had quite good sales. in addition, aion is actually a dark horse hidden in the technology circle, with a valuation of hundreds of billions. in the field of ev, aion is a veritable king of three-electric technology, not only with the well-reputed magazine battery, but also with the original aep3.0 pure electric exclusive platform.

it is just that due to the system, it is very difficult for aion to penetrate the high-end market with such a good foundation. after the financing is opened, blue chip stocks like aion will be able to get more funds, which will help this brand to impact the luxury car market.

brands like jiyue that have selling points but are relatively niche in positioning will also achieve better development. the intelligent driving capabilities demonstrated by jiyue are indeed eye-catching.

a little further away, hiphi seems to be able to come to the rescue?

of course, not all new forces will be saved. for example, brands like aiways, which went overseas early, will probably still have a hard time surviving. after all, these brands still have too few core technologies and it is difficult to survive the next round of competition.

(4) kung fu clap

when the fed cuts interest rates, the global market will tremble. there is a saying that goes, when capital is picking up money everywhere, ordinary people have no worries about food and clothing, and when capital is looking for money everywhere, ordinary people have nothing.

looking back, it was when nio, li auto and alibaba went public for no apparent reason a few years ago that everyone had the best time. although it is hard to expect things to return to those days, it is still good to see some improvement.

there has been too little hot money in the market in recent years, and car companies have suffered huge losses. they have finally waited for the "recovery cycle".

but in this case, will the market return to normal or become even more volatile?