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it is time for the philippines to make a new decision.

text | haishangke

the philippine coast guard ship no. 9701, which had illegally stayed in the xianbin reef lagoon of china's nansha islands, withdrew at around 14:00 on september 14.

liu dejun, spokesperson for the china coast guard, confirmed this on september 15. from the relevant videos released by cctv and other media, we can see that after the 9701 ship returned to the philippines, some crew members were carried off the ship on stretchers and taken away by ambulances. it can also be seen that the evacuation of the philippine coast guard 9701 was also unavoidable for the philippines!

after the evacuation of no. 9701, some personnel were carried out of the ship on stretchers

the video released by "yuyuan tantian" even showed that when the philippine ship 9701 was evacuated, there was a big hole on the left side of the ship, which was "patch" by the philippines.

anyway, uncle hai feels that the philippines ship 9701’s retreat was quite embarrassing.

as the ship was leaving, the philippines' coast guard and national maritime commission said that ship 9701 was "returning to port after completing its mission" and that another ship would be sent to the sinbin reef next.

alexander lopez, spokesman for the philippine national maritime commission, even said, "another ship will immediately take over the mission of the 9701." he also brazenly stated that the philippines will definitely maintain a "presence there." although lopez did not specify where the presence was, it was obvious from his words that he was referring to the xianbin reef.

01

“dust won’t fall unless you sweep it!” the evacuation of the 9701 flight in the philippines once again proves this saying!

why did the 9701 ship have to evacuate? didn't alexander lopez and his filipino colleagues have any idea in their minds? if it weren't for the successful response from the chinese side, would the 9701 ship, which had been stationed in the xianbin reef lagoon for 5 months, have run away obediently?

the crew members who were being hydrated and carried off the ship on stretchers, didn't this prove that these people were starving and were running away to save their lives? did alexander lopez really think that this ship had returned victoriously? what was there to brag about?

philippine coast guard ship 9701

review related reports——

on august 26, the philippine coast guard issued a statement saying that china had deployed six naval ships, three coast guard ships, and 31 fishing boats in the waters of xianbin reef.

the philippines said that this was "excessive force" deployed by china.

uncle hai has to say, this is really nonsense.

what is meant by "excessive force"?

china's maritime power is indeed strong now, at least much stronger than the philippines. the firepower of a 055-ton destroyer seems to be difficult for the philippine navy to resist. but the problem is that xianbin reef is chinese territory. in order to protect its own territory, china will deploy any force! what is "excessive force"? isn't it "excessive force" for the philippines to send ships to run aground on ren'ai reef for more than 20 years? isn't it "excessive force" for the philippines to repeat the same old trick?

more than 20 years ago, after the chinese embassy in the federal republic of yugoslavia was illegally bombed by the us military, the philippines took advantage of the fact that the chinese people at all levels were focusing on the affairs between china and the united states, and suddenly drove the "mount madre" tank landing ship to the ren'ai reef.

the philippines' "mount madre" tank landing ship has been stranded on ren'ai reef for more than 20 years

now, as china takes measures to control xianbin reef, no. 9701 can no longer hold on and has to withdraw.

02

uncle hai noticed that before the withdrawal of no. 9701, on september 11, chinese vice foreign minister chen xiaodong and philippine vice foreign minister lazaro held consultations in beijing.

this is a meeting of heads of delegations regarding the china-philippines south china sea consultation mechanism (bcm).

did the consultations have any effect? ​​anyway, judging from the report of the global times:

"the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on china-philippines maritime issues, especially the xianbin reef issue. china reiterated its principled position on the xianbin reef issue and urged the philippines to immediately withdraw the relevant ships. china will firmly safeguard its sovereignty and the seriousness and effectiveness of the declaration on the conduct of parties in the south china sea. the two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication through diplomatic channels such as the bcm."

the reports at the time did not mention the philippines' attitude.

but judging from the withdrawal of no. 9701, it seems that the philippines understood what china said.

on september 11, china and the philippines held bcm consultations. photo: ministry of foreign affairs website

the problem is that the philippine government has indeed done a lot of things that go back on its word since marcos jr. became president.

originally, the gentleman's agreement reached between the last philippine government, president rodrigo duterte, and china on the grounded warship at ren'ai reef should not be affected by the change of government in the philippines. after all, governments should not turn against each other on matters that they have promised in diplomatic occasions.

after the marcos administration refused to recognize this gentleman's agreement, china patiently continued to negotiate with it and reached a new round of verbal consensus. after the philippines used this consensus to carry out the replenishment of the "mount madre", it suddenly tore up the agreement that it had repeatedly agreed to and signed in black and white.

therefore, can we trust the assurances made by the philippines on the bcm approach?

uncle hai’s opinion is——

listen to what he says, but also watch what he does!

for example, after the evacuation of the 9701 ship, the tank landing ship "sierra madre" evacuated on time, at least in the period before the evacuation, it abided by the gentleman's agreement between china and the philippines, so the philippines and the marcos administration still had a certain degree of credibility. if they pretended to be evacuated, there would be no further evacuation, and even continued to send ships to replace the 9701, it would be enough to show that the philippines was not trustworthy again.

how should we treat those who do not keep their promises?

come to think of it, i can't give him a good look!

03

ban leyi photo: information

it is worth noting that during the xiangshan forum held in beijing recently, romel banlaye, former deputy national security adviser of the philippines, said in an interview with the media that even if there were conflicts between china and the philippines, they could be resolved within the china-asean framework. but behind the philippines, which has taken an increasingly tough stance, stands the united states.

"the united states emphasizes the status of asean on the surface, but its involvement in the so-called 'indo-pacific', the establishment of 'ocus', the us-japan-india-australia quadrilateral security dialogue, etc., are actually challenging the core position of asean." banley's words clearly show that there are different voices in the philippines against the united states manipulating philippine politicians to contain china. what they see is that the philippines will not only not gain any advantage from the confrontation with china, but is more likely to lose more opportunities to cooperate with china, develop, and improve people's livelihood.

it should be said that with the departure of ship 9701, it is time for the philippines to make a new decision. the choice will affect the next few years. i hope that the philippine politicians in power who have relevant decision-making power will not make the same mistake again this time!

for china, if the philippines makes another mistake, china has many ways to deal with it, and it cannot change the general direction of china's own development. but for the philippines, the situation is quite different.