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according to foreign media reports, us secretary of state blinken said that since the short-range ballistic missiles provided by iran to russia will cause more civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction in ukraine, ukraine has been allowed to use us-made army tactical missiles (atacms) to attack russian targets. and after his visit to the uk, the uk will also lift the ban on ukraine's use of "storm shadow" cruise missiles. this means that ukraine can finally use these two long-range ammunition with a range of more than 300 kilometers to attack strategic targets such as airports and logistics centers in russia. so, is this "nuclear strike red line" drawn by russia for nato facing the risk of being "erased" again?

foreign satellites captured a cargo ship that was said to be carrying russian missiles back to iran

recently, the wall street journal and other media reported that iran has begun to deliver ballistic missiles to russia. since this news comes from an anonymous us official, it is quite credible. previous reports on iran's provision of missiles to russia were all "possible", but now the official said that it has been "confirmed" that iran has completed the "delivery" to russia. he also said that the cargo will be transported from iran to a port in the caspian sea by a russian ship, and the number may be as high as "hundreds". although the specific model of the iranian missile is not yet known, it is speculated that it is likely to be the fath-360 short-range ballistic missile.

iran's fath-360 short-range ballistic missile

although the range of fath-360 is only 120 kilometers, it uses satellite guidance and inertial guidance systems, so its accuracy is sufficient to strike some ukrainian front lines and targets at a certain depth. in this way, russia can free up valuable iskander ballistic missiles with a range of 500 kilometers to strike more distant strategic targets in ukraine, such as mercenary concentration points, weapons warehouses, underground weapons factories, etc. and there are reports that russia has actually sent personnel to iran for several weeks of training, and it is estimated that after the arrival of this batch of missiles, they can be put into combat immediately.

previously, the united states provided ukraine with multiple m142 and m270 multiple rocket systems, which were only allowed to use guided ammunition with a maximum range of only 80 kilometers to attack russian military targets, and prohibited the use of the army tactical missiles (atacms) with a range of 300 kilometers provided by the united states. however, after the united states determined that iran had provided russia with fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, the united states' attitude began to change drastically. blinken said that the united states may allow ukraine to use atacms missiles to attack targets in russia, which would enable ukraine to strike about 200 russian military targets within 300 kilometers of its border.

the aftermath of the august 14 ukrainian drone attack on voronezh airport in russia

for example, the russian military airport in voronezh is located at the edge of the 300-kilometer range of the atacms missile. this is one of the main combat airports for russian bombers and fighter jets to take off and attack ukraine. attacking here can effectively weaken russia's ability to use its air superiority to attack the front lines, strategic targets and infrastructure in ukraine. although ukraine has used long-range drones to attack here before, due to the limited amount of explosives in these drones, the impact of the attack on the airport is very limited. but if ukraine switches to the more powerful atacms missile attack, it will definitely cause a very huge damage to the airport, which will obviously curb the russian army's air-based strike capability. in addition, the atacms missile can also strike a large number of russian command centers, logistics nodes and other important targets within the range, greatly weakening the russian army's combat effectiveness.

the uk had previously banned ukraine from using storm shadow cruise missiles on russian soil, but this has changed recently due to russia's large-scale strikes on ukrainian infrastructure and the arrival of iranian missiles. blinken's visit to the uk was also to communicate this matter. i believe that the uk will definitely follow the us's actions in the near future and announce the lifting of restrictions on ukraine's use of storm shadow cruise missiles to attack russian targets. this move will lead to a sharp increase in the pressure on russia's domestic defense! after all, if the atacms missile and the storm shadow, two long-range missiles with a range of about 300 kilometers, attack the same russian target, and use some drones as interference sources, there will undoubtedly be a high success rate of the attack!

as for the escalation risk faced by the current russian-ukrainian war, the attitudes of all parties involved are particularly important. as for nato member states, they generally expressed great concern about the actions of the united states and britain, but there are differences within nato on whether to allow ukraine to use these missiles. on the one hand, they are worried about the escalation of the war; on the other hand, they hope to support ukraine's combat operations by providing advanced weapons and continue to contribute to the consumption of russia's national strength.

ukrainian president zelensky has repeatedly called on western countries to provide more military support, especially long-range missiles. ukraine believes that only by attacking military targets in russia can it effectively curb russia's offensive momentum. in fact, ukraine has been using atacms and "storm shadow" to attack key russian military facilities in ukraine. according to us media reports, the large number of atacms missiles donated by the united states to ukraine have now been consumed by more than half.

however, russia has strongly opposed the decision of the united states and britain, and claimed that it will take corresponding measures to this decision. for example, vyacheslav volodin, chairman of the state duma, the lower house of the russian parliament, said that if kiev begins to launch western long-range missiles at russia, then russia will be forced to use "more powerful and more destructive weapons" against ukraine. and russian deputy foreign minister sergei ryabkov said that russia will destroy all newly delivered atacms missiles. russia can also force ukraine and its western allies to make concessions through military pressure by intensifying air and missile attacks on ukraine. in addition, russia will also launch a diplomatic offensive on the international stage to try to divide opinions within nato.

of course, after these "fierce" "verbal pk" confrontations between the two sides, it depends on the real actions of both sides. from the russian side, since putin had previously drawn a "red line" for nato that would lead to a russian nuclear attack - for example, nato's assistance to ukraine's f-16 fighter jets - but now that nato has delivered several f-16s to ukraine and the ukrainian army has used them in combat, there has been no retaliation from russia against nato. in response to nato's current relaxation of ukraine's use of its assisted long-range missiles to attack russia's mainland, putin also said in an interview on september 13 that ukraine does not have the ability to use long-range missiles to attack russian mainland targets unless it receives assistance from western countries, which means that nato countries - the united states and europe - are at war with russia.

this may mean that putin will directly equate ukraine's future use of long-range missiles assisted by the west to attack its homeland with nato's "declaration of war" on russia. after all, without nato's real-time reconnaissance and intelligence support, ukraine has no ability to use these western missiles to attack russian targets protected 300 kilometers away. therefore, "using long-range missiles assisted by the west to attack russian homeland targets" will be putin's latest "red line" for nato that will be subject to nuclear strikes. therefore, there may be differences within nato before this "red line". after all, such behavior will threaten russia's "survival". it is not ruled out that putin will indeed take necessary measures to defend this "red line"!

germany, which is on the front line of blocking russia, has completed the certification of the tornado fighter to carry the b61-12 nuclear bomb

therefore, the conflict between ukraine and russia, as well as the nato countries that are fueling the conflict, is now entering a new stage. ukraine's unrestricted and extensive use of long-range missiles will become the key to determining the future war situation and the degree of escalation of the war. in the future, as more advanced weapons are put into use by both sides, the scale and intensity of the conflict may further intensify. i am afraid that by that time, russia's "nuclear stick" may not be guaranteed to be wielded! nato countries, led by the united states, are now preparing intensively for the use of the b61-12 tactical nuclear bomb with a maximum equivalent of 50,000 tons.

it can be said that the situation between russia and ukraine has now reached the stage of "storm clouds gathering". in the future, perhaps we will witness the historic moment when "tactical nuclear weapons" are put into actual combat for the first time!