news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

author | first financial news luan lijieshu yi leyan

as the mid-autumn festival approaches, the mooncake market, which used to be very busy in previous years, has unexpectedly encountered a "cold wave". from shopping malls to community supermarkets, hotels to online sales platforms, this year's mooncake season seems particularly deserted.

consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing has waned, manufacturers and sellers have lamented that the market is becoming increasingly chilly, and the traditional mooncake sales peak season seems to have entered a "cooling-off period" ahead of schedule.

this change not only reflects the rational return of consumers' shopping behavior, but also indicates that the mooncake market is facing a profound transformation and adjustment.

all channels are cold

compared with the lively mooncake season in previous years, this year's mooncake season is a bit cool for consumers, manufacturers, hotels and retailers. in particular, many consumers feel that the overall atmosphere of mooncake consumption during the mid-autumn festival is not strong this year.

on the eve of the mid-autumn festival, a reporter from china business news saw a shopping mall in front of the north fourth ring road in beijing. this is one of the places where haagen-dazs and starbucks pick up mooncakes, but this year it is particularly deserted, and there is almost no atmosphere of the mid-autumn festival. in previous years, haagen-dazs would set up a shed for mooncake redemption early during the mid-autumn festival, and there would always be many "scalpers" wandering around the mall entrance collecting mooncake coupons, but this year not only was there no shed, but even the "scalpers" who were seen in groups of three or two were nowhere to be seen.

in some yonghui supermarkets, the reporter from china business news saw that the supermarkets still displayed three mooncake stands as in previous years, with various flavors, sugar-free and low-sugar mooncakes, but few people were interested in the mooncake stands at noon. supermarket staff said that except for a small number of batch sales of mooncakes from brands such as beijing daoxiangcun, most mooncake brands are selling one or two boxes "in small quantities", and business is not as good as in previous years.

at a cp lotus supermarket in pudong new district, shanghai, mooncake sales are also quiet. during the mid-autumn festival in 2023, this supermarket produced a large display of mooncakes with a rich variety of styles and quantities. this year, there are still five days before the mid-autumn festival, and mooncake sales should still be at their peak, but there are no mooncakes in the "c position" of the supermarket's food area. under the guidance of the staff, the reporter finally saw mooncake products on an inconspicuous shelf, and there were only three types of xinghualou mooncake products. the staff told reporters: "we dare not import too many mooncakes this year, for fear that they will not be sold out and lead to stockpiling. it is estimated that we will have to reduce prices to clear stocks after the festival. this year, we have more displays of tea, nuts, nutritional supplements, etc., and there are many consumers who buy these as gifts during the mid-autumn festival."

after visiting the site and communicating with merchants, the reporter of china business news learned that the sales of mooncakes this year are more difficult than in previous years. the sales of mooncake products (bulk) and gift boxes in many supermarkets have declined compared with previous years. in order to promote sales, many merchants are increasing discounts in the hope of clearing out their stocks in advance.

"we started the big promotion more than a month in advance this year, with the aim of speeding up stock clearance. in fact, the cost of mooncakes is not high, and the market price of gift boxes is generally much higher than the cost, so there will still be profits even with big promotions. of course, the profits will definitely decrease. but reduced profits are always better than unsalable goods, so we have a big promotion in advance to speed up turnover and clear stock. selling out early also helps manufacturers and retailers to maintain the basic market." a senior purchasing person who has been working in the retail field for more than 10 years revealed to the reporter from china business network.

hotels are also facing the same embarrassment. "each of us has a mooncake sales target, but we can clearly feel that mooncake sales are difficult this year. in the past, we were quite confident that we could sell thousands of boxes of mooncakes, but this year it is a bit difficult. our strategy is to lower the price and hope to complete the sales as soon as possible." a hotel salesperson told the reporter of china business network.

according to sources in the hotel industry, in order to meet mooncake sales targets as quickly as possible, in addition to lowering prices, some hotel staff even "bundle" mooncakes when they assist guests with room upgrades and other services, but they tell guests that it is a package deal or "mooncake benefit." in fact, they package the cost of the mooncakes with the room sales to speed up mooncake sales.

on august 15 this year, the china baking products and confectionery products industry association released a forecast that due to the short mid-autumn festival sales cycle this year, market competition will be more concentrated and fierce, and because consumption has returned to rationality this year, it is estimated that the production of mooncakes for the mid-autumn festival this year will be 300,000 tons, with sales of 20 billion yuan, which is the same as last year or slightly lower.

moreover, this year's mooncake market has both affordable and high-end gift boxes, with mainstream prices ranging from 70 yuan to 220 yuan, and affordable gift boxes mostly below 60 yuan. in particular, some hotels and well-known brands have launched smaller mooncake packages, priced around 100 yuan. the china bakery and confectionery industry association also said that after investigation, mooncake gift boxes priced over 500 yuan have basically withdrawn from the regular market this year, and the problem of excessive mooncake packaging has also been curbed.

a scalper told the first financial reporter that on the one hand, all major shopping malls have stepped up their crackdowns on scalpers, and they are unwilling to take risks at the gates; on the other hand, the mooncake business this year is not ideal, and there is no interest in trading. according to the above scalper, this year's mooncake coupons are only starbucks, but the scalper is only willing to pay 118 yuan for a mooncake coupon worth 258 yuan. another scalper told the reporter that this year's mooncake coupons are not as valuable as in previous years. last year, the second-hand price of brand mooncake coupons could be sold for about 180 yuan, but this year it is only worth about 125 yuan.

lack of demand

according to the reporter's visit, although the mooncake gift boxes are more down-to-earth this year, overall consumption is still weak, and the main reason for the change is still the lack of demand.

"this year, the sales of mooncakes and mooncake coupons are only 50% of the original plan." the business manager of a star-rated hotel in tai'an, shandong told the first financial daily that every year the hotel launches mid-autumn festival gift boxes, mooncakes and other products. when making the mid-autumn festival sales plan this summer, the hotel had already considered the possibility of mooncakes not being popular, but it did not expect the sales to be so unsatisfactory. the main reason for the decline in sales is that this year's demand for corporate group purchases, welfare, and visits is less than in previous years.

some hoteliers said that most of the mooncake gift boxes in the hotel are homemade, and this year they have reduced a certain amount of production based on sales, or converted them into snack products to attract consumers. the poor sales are mainly due to the overall reduction in purchases this year, such as a significant decrease in orders for mooncake gift boxes from large corporate customers.

wang yong, a mooncake wholesaler who has been running a mooncake business in beijing for many years, has the same feeling. he said that this year's group purchase orders for mooncakes have decreased by 30% to 40% compared with previous years. in previous years, he could sell a maximum of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan worth of mooncakes a day during the peak season, but this year he would consider it good if he could sell 50,000 to 60,000 yuan.

chen yuan, head of a food company in guangdong province, told yicai global that the start-up time of the mooncake factory this year was much later than in previous years, at least 10 days later. "in previous years, the factory started the production line a month in advance, but this year it started 20 days in advance."

this year, not only did the mooncake production line start late, but it also stopped early. the mooncake production line of chen yuan's company stopped production a week before the mid-autumn festival, while in previous years it would basically stop working 3 to 4 days before the mid-autumn festival. in previous years, it took more than 20 days to complete the order, but this year it can be completed in just over ten days. "because the number of mooncakes required by customers has decreased, the preparation time does not need to be so long. our company's mooncake sales this year have dropped by at least 20%, and the price has also dropped by about 20%. even so, sales have not improved much." chen yuan said.

in chen yuan's opinion, it is not only mooncakes that are not popular this year, but also other types of food. therefore, chen yuan's idea is to develop more daily food, rather than just holiday gifts. "so our company is now producing healthy and urgently needed products. for example, low-fat and low-calorie foods such as chicken breast and steak."

zhu danpeng, vice president of the guangdong food safety promotion association, told the first financial daily that consumer demand has undergone fundamental changes this year. on the one hand, consumers are more rational in their purchases, and the mainstream price range of mooncake gift boxes has dropped to around 150 yuan this year. on the other hand, consumers are also paying more attention to health, which has brought new impacts on mooncake sales.

can diversification become a new way out for mooncakes?

in recent years, mooncakes have gradually moved away from the identity of simple food, and have become increasingly important as social items for gift-giving and reciprocity. in previous years, corporate clients were also major mooncake orderers. however, as the trend of rational and healthy consumption has become increasingly obvious in recent years, more and more companies have begun to replace traditional mooncake products with gift cards, mid-autumn festival gift boxes, etc.

wang yufei, head of jd.com's pastry category, said at a previous industry forum that since new mooncakes use more pastry and have a sweeter taste, which deviates from the current trend of health and low sugar, mooncakes with innovative flavors and healthy products will still be popular in the market, and sales of low-sugar and sugar-free mooncakes will show double-digit growth in 2023. this year's consumer survey also showed that the taste of mooncakes ranked first in the list of concerns, while food safety and whether the raw materials are healthy have ranked second. healthy selling points such as zero sugar, homology of medicine and food, and high nutritional ingredients are more concerned by consumers.

a person from hema said that this year, a variety of healthy ingredients were selected for the production of mooncake crusts. the freshly baked series of vegetarian mooncakes uses vegetable oil instead of lard for shortening, which does not contain animal fats and achieves crispy crusts; hema's self-operated "starlight" gift box mooncakes use whole wheat flour as raw material when making the crust, which is healthier to eat. in addition, hema launched the wufangzhai customized "full moon mid-autumn" sweet and glutinous mooncake gift box, the crust is made of glutinous rice and indica rice, and the ingredients are clean.

in zhu danpeng's view, starting from 2022, the development direction of china's food industry will be inclined towards weight management, appearance management, nutrition management, and health management. therefore, the food industry, including mooncakes, will need to develop in the direction of low oil, low sugar, and low fat. in addition, there will be more and more new and unique products, and internet celebrity products will cater to the preferences and tastes of the new generation of consumers. this will be a mainstream development direction. in addition, cultural and creative mooncakes may also become a new way out for the development of mooncakes. compared with simple "calorie bombs", the core of cultural and creative mooncakes is to provide consumers with richer emotional value.

in addition to the trend of healthy consumption, many consumers this year also like experiential consumption. in addition to a variety of finished mooncakes, the platform can also buy various ingredients and tools for homemade mooncakes. users who have the tradition of making mooncakes at home can buy all the materials in one stop. the diversity of products on the online platform allows consumers from different regions and different age groups to buy mid-autumn festival ingredients of their favorite flavors, and to make mooncakes of their favorite flavors by themselves. through the improvement and innovation of mooncakes, a representative food of mid-autumn festival, the atmosphere of traditional festivals has also become more diversified and younger.

wechat editor | lamb