news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

at the beginning of september, the shanghai composite index reached around 2,800 points again, and the volatile trend of the stock market confused investors. many private equity fund personnel interviewed by reporters believed that the recent market trend was mainly affected by factors such as weak macroeconomic data, and market sentiment was relatively low. however, with the federal reserve's interest rate cut approaching, domestic countercyclical policies are accelerating, and corporate performance is improving. the economy is expected to gradually recover, the market environment is marginally improving, and the a-share market is optimistic about stabilizing and rebounding in the future. at present, private equity maintains strategic focus and intends to increase its holdings of high-quality stocks against the market trend.

affected by macroeconomic data and other factors

equity market shows a volatile pattern

this week, the shanghai composite index fell 2.69% to below 2,800 points, the shenzhen component index fell 2.61%, and the chinext index fell 2.68%. many private equity firms interviewed believe that the current market volatility is mainly related to economic fundamentals and other factors.

xingshi investment analyzed that there are four main factors affecting the market this week: first, the pmi data performance continued to decline, suppressing market sentiment. the official manufacturing pmi in august was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. among them, the decline in the new order pmi index was greater than that on the production side; second, there may be room for monetary policy, and stock policies such as old for new are being implemented at an accelerated pace. the central bank’s leadership’s statement may mean that there is still room for easing of the aggregate monetary policy, but the statement that the downward trend of stock loan interest rates faces constraints has led to a marginal weakening of market policy expectations; third, the us pmi and employment data revealed signs of recession, but the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts were stable, and recession concerns led to fluctuations in overseas stock markets; fourth, the bank of japan once again released hawkish signals.

danyi investment said that since august, macro data has continued to be weak. the new credit of 260 billion yuan in july announced in the middle of the month was lower than expected and lower than seasonal. the residents once again "deleveraged" and the corporate side also performed weakly. in addition, the narrow money (m1) in july fell by 6.6% year-on-year, negative growth for four consecutive months and the lowest level in history. the willingness of enterprises to activate funds was weak. the manufacturing pmi for august announced at the end of the month was 49.1% (previous value 49.4%), accelerating downward, and has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. the overall economic prosperity is weak.

yuanxing fund said that the market has been weak recently. the shanghai composite index has not rebounded effectively after falling below 2,800 points. the major indexes are only one step away from the lows in february this year. in terms of driving factors, the domestic pmi weakened in august, and the sub-item data showed that the destocking phase may not be over yet, which aggravated investors' concerns about fundamentals. at the same time, the us economic data showed certain signs of recession, which also indirectly affected domestic sentiment.

however, zhongyang investment partner kou zhiwei pointed out that the recent a-share market has generally performed poorly, but the reasons are very different from the decline at the beginning of the year. the sharp market fluctuations at the beginning of the year were mainly due to the deterioration of the market trading structure. when the market fell to a certain range, snowball products and other products amplified the fluctuations, forming a self-reinforcing vicious cycle. "but the contradictions in the current market trading structure have been cleared. the most important factor affecting the market is the weak fundamentals. the overall a-share second quarter report was weaker than expected, and investor confidence was weak."

according to the reporter, private equity firms are maintaining their composure and are choosing opportunities to increase their holdings of high-quality stocks against the market trend. danyi investment said that its recent positions have been maintained at above medium levels. on the one hand, it focuses on core leading companies with high shareholder returns and a good competitive landscape, and on the other hand, it chooses opportunities to deploy technology growth stocks with fundamentals that exceed expectations under low expectations.

xiangju capital believes that if the economy is not stimulated sufficiently, the stock market will most likely fluctuate 150 points above and below the current position. "when the position is low, it is not suitable to have too low a position, but if the position is to be more optimistic, clear and effective policies are needed. in this context, we will focus on companies that can expand in the long term compared to the present. behind this is that they are less dependent on macro growth drivers and pay more attention to their own strong competitiveness. we will then select stocks based on short-term data, carefully observe market changes, and do a good job of risk control."

yuanxing fund said that the company's overall position is not high at present, and the limited positions are more for the execution of long-term layout plans in the fixed income field. some adjustments have also been made to the bond duration recently.

the macro environment has improved marginally and performance disturbances have weakened

private equity is optimistic about the stock market stabilizing and rebounding

in fact, private equity is optimistic about the stock market bottoming out, stabilizing and recovering in the future. with the federal reserve's interest rate cut approaching, domestic policy space is opening up, and corporate fundamentals are improving, the economy is expected to gradually recover.

"current market expectations and asset valuations are at bottom positions, which means that the market has already priced in the reality of weakening economic fundamentals. it is expected that as the federal reserve starts to cut interest rates and domestic counter-cyclical policies are implemented more quickly, the macro environment facing the a-share market is expected to improve marginally. at the same time, the window period for the concentrated release of semi-annual reports of listed companies has passed. the semi-annual report data shows that although the overall profits of listed companies are still weak, there is a clear differentiation among industries. nearly half of the companies have a positive year-on-year growth rate in net profit attributable to their parent companies. it is expected that the market's concerns about performance may ease in the future, especially for leading companies with profit advantages in the context of a weak macro environment." xingshi investment said.

in kou zhiwei's view, the biggest force that could reverse the current market weakness is macroeconomic policy. "in response to the market liquidity crisis before the spring festival, the government took decisive action to provide liquidity to the market. however, in the face of the current market decline caused by fundamentals, the most important thing is to further increase counter-cyclical regulation."

kou zhiwei said that since july, the macro-countercyclical adjustment has been strengthened, and an additional 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds have been used to support large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, and the interest rates on existing mortgage loans may also be further reduced. "with the continued strengthening of macro policies, the market is expected to gradually stabilize."

yuanxing fund also believes that although the market has fully anticipated the interest rate cut in september, the start of the official interest rate cut cycle is still of great significance from a longer-term perspective. the global liquidity environment will certainly be loose, and non-us economies will have room for monetary easing. "it is undoubtedly a big positive for the domestic capital market, and from the current position of stocks and bonds, we tend to think that the positive impact on the stock market may be greater than that on the bond market, but the bond market is not bearish in the short term."

yuanxing fund also said that at the domestic policy level, there will be a series of actions worth looking forward to, including the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates, the reduction of deposit reserve interest rates, the reduction of policy interest rates, and the strengthening of fiscal policies. "the direction of my country's policy choices is clear. previously, actions may have been postponed due to factors such as exchange rates. once conditions are ripe, i believe that there is room for policy strengthening beyond expectations. in this case, the market may stabilize and rebound."

in addition, danyi investment stated that in the past two months, the domestic economy has not improved significantly compared with the second quarter, and asset prices have also bottomed out for the second time. however, the hang seng index has shown a bottom-up trend in the past six months. the main reason is that the performance of related dividend, resource, and internet leading companies is very resilient in a weak market. at the same time, many companies have announced repurchase plans of tens of billions or even hundreds of billions to increase the substantial returns of shareholders. this situation has also been slowly transmitted to a-shares. as of the interim report, a total of 673 listed companies disclosed interim dividend plans. the 2024 interim report cumulatively disclosed interim dividends of 528.8 billion yuan, a leapfrog increase from 2023. "pessimists are right, and optimists move forward. i believe that as the us dollar enters the interest rate cut channel in september, we can further expect domestic policies to drive the completion of the annual gdp growth target."