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in late august, federal reserve chairman powell said at the jackson hole global central bank conference: "the time has come for policy adjustment." combined with the support of various us economic data for interest rate cuts, the industry believes that the probability of the fed cutting interest rates in september is high, but the decision will rely on overall data rather than a single data.

at the same time, conflicts in some parts of the world are still in a white-hot stage, and the market risk aversion sentiment is high. in this context, the market demand for gold continues to increase, and gold funds may still have layout value in the medium and long term.

expectations of a fed rate cut are high

on august 23, the jackson hole global central bank annual economic policy seminar was held. powell said at the meeting: "the time for policy adjustment has come. the policy direction has been clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks." the wall street journal commented that powell's speech "is the strongest signal of a rate cut so far."

in addition, at the most recent federal reserve monetary policy committee (fomc) meeting that ended on july 31, fed policymakers were generally more confident that inflation would continue to fall back to the fed's target of 2%. they no longer claimed that they were "still paying close attention to inflation risks" and instead focused on the risks facing the dual mission of employment and inflation. this is also seen as a strong signal for a rate cut.

citic securities believes that economic data such as the number of new non-farm jobs in the united states falling below 100,000 and pce stabilizing at 2%-3% year-on-year, provide strong support for the fed's interest rate cut.

nuoan fund believes that future u.s. labor market data will have a significant impact on whether the federal reserve will cut interest rates. if the job market is weaker than expected, the federal reserve may start its first interest rate cut in september. the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts still needs to be combined with economic data and financial market judgment.

actively follow the trend of gold prices

in the framework of gold's financial and monetary attributes, gold prices mostly rise when the federal reserve cuts interest rates. according to wind data, as of july 2024, gold prices have risen in six of the eight interest rate cut cycles since 1980.

if we look at the changes in gold prices before and after the rate cuts, the increase in gold prices is also quite significant. according to cicc statistics, in the rate cut cycle since 1990, the average annual increase in gold prices in the month before the rate cut was about 40%, and the average annual increase in the six months after the rate cut was about 24%.

in addition, the demand for gold purchases from central banks has increased significantly since the second half of 2022, mainly from central banks such as china and russia, while gold etfs have shown a net outflow trend. against the backdrop of continued tensions in the global geopolitical situation and rising us deficit rates, major central banks have gradually diversified their allocation of foreign exchange reserves, with gold being one of the more popular choices.

noah fund believes that the long-term interest rate in the united states will maintain a downward trend in the future, and there is still a possibility of recurrence. judging from the current value, the short-term downward range may be limited. after the fed starts to cut interest rates, the trend of the us dollar index needs to be combined with the economic growth expectations and monetary policies of other major economies. previously, the market generally expected that the us economic growth rate would slow down moderately and the fed would cut interest rates as a precautionary measure. in this case, it is expected that the us dollar index and treasury yields may be slightly revised compared to the current level after the interest rate cut. however, if the us economy weakens beyond expectations or falls into recession, the us dollar index and interest rates will have further room for decline, and the market risk appetite will also converge rapidly. both financial attributes and safe-haven attributes support further upward movement of gold prices. in addition, the uncertainties caused by the us presidential election and geopolitical conflicts in the middle east must also be considered.

the industry believes that with multiple factors intertwined, investors are advised to pay close attention to the trend of gold prices and gradually increase the proportion of gold allocation when prices fall to seize gold investment opportunities.

seize the opportunity of gold investment allocation

for ordinary investors, gold funds are still the most convenient and efficient way. gold funds are also divided into two categories: domestic gold and international gold. funds investing in domestic gold mainly track the gold standard contract of the shanghai gold exchange, which is denominated in rmb, so it will be affected by the rmb exchange rate and has a certain lag. funds investing in international gold mainly track london gold and new york gold. among them, london gold is spot gold. based on the status of the london market as one of the global gold trading centers, london gold has become the benchmark for global gold trading; new york gold is a futures contract, also known as comex gold.

at present, there are many fund products investing in domestic gold in the market, mainly tracking shanghai gold, sge gold 9999 and ssh gold stock index, while there are fewer funds investing in international gold. among them, noan global gold mainly invests in gold etfs backed by physical gold overseas, involving many developed markets. the main considerations in the selection process are the liquidity, scale, tracking error, transparency, and fees of gold etfs. in addition, the fund has a high correlation coefficient with the afternoon fixing price of london gold, and tracks the international gold price more closely. according to the interim report data, as of june 30, 2024, noan global gold has achieved outstanding performance, with a net value growth rate of 11.33% so far this year, and the performance benchmark for the same period was 12.85%.