scholars believe: poland may become the new face of european leadership
2024-09-01
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reference news reported on september 1on august 7, the website of the french weekly le express published a report titled "in a few years, poland will be richer than france" - an interview with bart szewczyk, a researcher at the german marshall fund of the united states and an expert on european issues. the reporter is laurent belbon. the report is excerpted as follows:
as the country with the second lowest unemployment rate in the eu and the fifth largest industrial power in continental europe, poland has achieved an "economic miracle" in the past 30 years and is also becoming a technology incubation center. faced with the "threat" of russia, poland has gone all out in military investment, aiming to have the most powerful army in europe within 10 years. this is enough to bring diplomatic weight. since poland turned the page on the law and justice party and brought the pro-european and very experienced tusk back to power, szewczyk believes that this is the new face of european leadership.
outstanding economic and military strength
q: you recently wrote in an article that there is a leadership vacuum in europe. you called emmanuel macron's leadership "cheap" and olaf scholz's leadership "strategic-less." is the state of the "franco-german engine" so bad?
shevchik: in recent years, the axis between berlin and paris, the traditional driving force behind eu policymaking, is not as effective as it used to be. this is partly due to the personality differences between macron and scholz. we have seen a weakening of this traditional partnership in terms of european leadership. who can play this role in europe? this will be an open question for the next 6 to 12 months. i think warsaw can be one of these new engines.
of course, it is not enough to declare oneself a leader. one must watch the actions. it was to be expected that the first foreign trip of the new british foreign secretary, david lammy, was to berlin. but on the same trip he also went straight to warsaw. this is not insignificant. five years ago, when the far-right law and justice party was in power in poland, warsaw was not seen by other european partners as a country to work with, or to develop some form of leadership. but that is changing.
q: you seem unconvinced by the idea that other major european countries such as madrid or rome could play this role. why?
a: spain and italy, unlike poland, cannot afford debt. to play a leading role in europe, you need a certain economic and military position. these two countries certainly have the necessary economic size. these are two large countries. but both countries have very high public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (gdp) (spain 107.7%, italy 137.30%, poland 49.6%).
in terms of military, the two countries' defense policies are not active. even if they decide to significantly increase defense spending, their room for maneuver will be very limited because their debt-to-gdp ratios are already too high. poland's defense spending accounts for 4% of gdp, the highest among nato countries. spain is 1.3% and italy is 1.7%.
q: aren’t you convinced by france’s leadership?
a: france has a strong military. but it has limited wiggle room to increase existing spending or donate military equipment to ukraine for domestic political reasons. france is currently under a caretaker government, and we don’t know who will be the new prime minister. when macron makes a decision on foreign policy or defense policy, its implementation will depend on the different ministers in the co-government, not to mention that the budget must be voted on by the national assembly… however, it is not certain that these different forces can move in the same direction. even if they do, france’s debt-to-gdp ratio is very high.
helping to build european consensus
q: apart from its economic and military trump cards, can poland really have a place in european institutions?
a: tusk was the prime minister of poland 10 years ago. he was the president of the european council for 5 years. he has worked with several current members of the european council. this is very helpful because things get done faster when you know who to talk to, who to contact and how all the mechanisms work.
the current polish foreign minister, radoslaw sikorski, is europe's most experienced diplomat. tusk and sikorski are surrounded by a group of energetic, capable and innovative policymakers. poland will hold the rotating presidency of the european union in the first half of 2025. this is an important role. it will be a good opportunity for poland to show the rest of europe the scope of its capabilities.
q: what about the united states? within the eu, the united states mainly makes calls to germany and france. in the future, can poland also play this role?
a: both current us president biden and then-us president trump chose warsaw to deliver important speeches on european policy during their visits to europe. warsaw played a central role in responding to russia's offensive against ukraine. poland took in more than a million refugees and shipped all its weapons overland across its border with ukraine.
whether kamala harris or trump is elected as the us president, i think in the future, warsaw will become a more important partner of the united states. returning to europe, i would like to add an important fact: poland is the country that can most easily unite other countries in the region, especially those in central and eastern europe. for example, it can play a role through the "bucharest nine" (poland, romania, estonia, slovakia, czech republic, bulgaria, hungary, lithuania, latvia), or it can convene scandinavian countries. poland can use these platforms to build a broader european consensus. (compiled by liu zhuo)
european expert bart shevchik (file photo)
