US experts: Climate change is making the Middle East uninhabitable
2024-08-26
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Reference News reported on August 25On August 19, the website of the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy published an article titled "Climate Change Is Making the Middle East Uninhabitable," written by Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Excerpts from the article are as follows:
For the past 10 months, the world’s attention has been focused on Israel and the Gaza Strip. The war that began on October 7, 2023, has been catastrophic. But the conflict has overshadowed another crisis enveloping the region: extreme heat and water shortages.
In mid-July, Dubai reached about 62.2 degrees Celsius. At the end of June, the temperature at the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, was about 51.7 degrees Celsius. Such high temperatures coincided with the Hajj season. By the end of the high temperatures, more than 1,300 people had died. In Egypt, the temperature has rarely dropped below about 37.8 degrees Celsius since May.
Last summer, the Gulf region was actually hotter, with coastal areas of Iran and the UAE experiencing eye-popping temperatures of around 70 degrees Celsius.
The World Bank estimates that by 2050, water shortages will cause the region's GDP to fall by about 14%. In 2021, a UNICEF report pointed out that by 2025, Egypt may run out of water resources and the Nile River will face great pressure. The construction of the "Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" restricts the flow of the upper Nile River, exacerbating water pressure in Egypt and other countries. Syria and Turkey have been at odds for many years because Turkey built dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, cutting off the flow of water to the south. Among the many issues that divide Israelis and Palestinians is the issue of water resources, that is, who has the right to use the mountain aquifers in the West Bank.
Extreme heat poses a major threat to lives and livelihoods in the Middle East and North Africa, and has the potential to undermine political stability in hotter regions.
The October 2021 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report on climate change pointed out that given the complexity of human and national decision-making, the U.S. intelligence community has only "low to medium confidence" in judging "how natural climate will affect U.S. national security interests and geopolitical conflicts."
A clearer and more pressing issue is how people will adapt to rising temperatures and water shortages. People will migrate to places with cooler temperatures and more water. According to the World Bank, by 2050, up to 19 million people in North Africa, or about 9% of the local population, will be displaced by the climate crisis. For people in the region, the preferred destination is Europe.
It is important to note that, first, the World Bank is extrapolating. Political, economic or technological changes could limit migration. Second, not every migrant is moving because of climate change. Finally, given the money required to cross the Mediterranean, some displaced people will have to stay in the region.
Immigration is a positive for EU countries that have aging populations and need workers to pay into generous social safety nets. However, the argument that immigration brings social benefits remains unconvincing to many Europeans who oppose large numbers of newcomers entering their countries.
The United States cares deeply about the stability, integrity, freedom, and prosperity of Europe. The emergence and success of xenophobic, fascist, or close political parties allied with the enemies of Western liberalism is a threat to core U.S. interests. That is why Washington needs to help stem mass immigration to Europe. There is not much the United States can do about conflicts that breed migration, such as the one in Sudan, but U.S. policymakers can help with the climate crisis.
This does not require increased financial aid or green infrastructure projects, but something more cost-effective and impactful—creative diplomacy. Heat makes water shortages worse, which is why people migrate. The U.S. government can play a useful role in helping Middle Eastern countries better manage their water resources, using its experience and technical expertise in resource management in the increasingly hot American West.
Conflict in the region makes aid more difficult, as water often crosses borders. But it is a challenge that can be overcome. There are not only technical solutions to water scarcity, but also political incentives to reach agreements even across conflict zones.
A maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon could serve as a template for U.S. officials to help deal with water-sharing issues in the region. They separate Israel’s concerns about Lebanon and Lebanon’s concerns about Israel and focus instead on the benefits of a deal for both countries. Once it becomes clear that there is natural gas offshore Israel and Lebanon, it will be hard for the two countries, still at war, to disagree on a border. That’s important and points the way forward for water negotiations.
In fact, helping to reach an agreement to address water shortages in the Middle East is a low-cost way for the United States to ease political anomalies in Europe and help shape the future global order.
