Seizing the 400 million-person stock market, Chinese HPV vaccine companies are "flying southeast"
2024-08-26
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"Since the Chinese market cannot absorb the production capacity of manufacturers under development, the real competition in the HPV vaccine industry will take place in the international market. The future development of domestic HPV vaccine companies must go overseas." Recently, Hao Chunli, vice chairman of Kangle Guard, told the First Financial reporter.
Although the HPV vaccination rate among Chinese women is lower than that in developed countries, competition among vaccine companies is becoming increasingly fierce. So far, there are 6 HPV vaccines approved for marketing worldwide, 5 of which are approved for marketing in China, two of which are from Chinese local vaccine companies. Currently, there are several more expensive HPV vaccines under development in China, some of which are planning to submit marketing applications or are already on the way to marketing applications.
In order to break through the internal competition in the industry, some companies are also preparing to go overseas. Among them, Southeast Asia has become one of the choices for domestic HPV vaccine companies to go overseas.
The total population of Southeast Asia, which consists of 11 countries including Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, exceeds 670 million, accounting for about 9% of the world's population. Compared with developed countries, the HPV vaccination rate in developing countries in Southeast Asia is relatively low, and there is an imbalance between countries.
According to Frost & Sullivan data, in 2022, the HPV vaccination rate for females under 15 years old in developed countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States has reached more than 60%, while the HPV vaccination rate for females under 15 years old in Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia is below 30% (including 30%), with Indonesia's vaccination rate being only 6%.
In recent years, Chinese local HPV vaccine companies have tried to promote the export of HPV vaccines to Southeast Asia.
The bivalent HPV vaccine of Wantai Biopharmaceuticals (603392.SH) has been approved for sale in China and has also been exported to overseas markets. According to the company's just-released 2024 semi-annual report, after passing the WHO PQ certification, the company's bivalent HPV vaccine has obtained market access in 18 countries overseas, including Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries. In Thailand, the bivalent HPV vaccine has been included in the country's expanded immunization program.
In September 2023, the nine-valent HPV vaccine of Cologne Guard (833575.BJ) obtained the Phase III clinical trial approval issued by the Indonesian Food and Drug Administration (BPOM), and started clinical trials in November 2023. Cologne Guard also became the first domestic company to independently launch a Phase III clinical trial of the nine-valent HPV vaccine overseas. At present, all subjects have been enrolled and the second dose has been vaccinated. It is expected to submit a listing application in the local country in 2025.
Indonesia, which Kanglewei is trying to target, has a local population of 274 million, making it the most populous country in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world. "We chose Indonesia as the first stop for going overseas, mainly because of its large population, rapid economic development, low HPV vaccination rate and the Indonesian government's support for the vaccine industry. In addition to localized production, we are also exploring other ways of cooperation, such as borrowing a boat to go to sea." Kanglewei told the reporter of China Business News that the company will use the clinical trial data collected in China and Indonesia to seek to register the nine-valent HPV candidate vaccine in other ASEAN countries.
How big is the HPV vaccine market in Southeast Asia? In January 2022, Wantai Biopharmaceuticals stated in the company's private placement of A-shares plan (revised draft) that according to the data from the "Demographic Yearbook" released by the United Nations Statistics Division in 2019, based on the market of Southeast Asia and South Asia, where the company can expand, and the market capacity (women aged 9-45) is estimated to be more than 400 million people.
However, a person in the vaccine industry pointed out to the First Financial reporter that Southeast Asian countries' procurement of HPV vaccines can be roughly divided into two categories: one is countries that purchase vaccines independently (Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, etc.), and the other is countries that purchase through international organizations (Myanmar, Laos, etc.).
"The quantity purchased by international organizations is limited. Many countries that have promoted HPV vaccination nationwide with the assistance of international organizations have only implemented it in recent years. Some populous countries in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, have included HPV vaccines in the NIP (immunization program) according to the World Health Organization's caliber, but they were only partially included at the beginning. Indonesia will implement NIP vaccination at the national level from 2023, and the Philippines is still implementing NIP vaccination in some provinces. The local government procurement price is basically very low. In addition, the global HPV vaccine production capacity is limited, and a large part of it is supplied to China. Ultimately, the quantity these countries can purchase is limited." said the vaccine industry insider.
Another person from an HPV vaccine company pointed out to reporters that promoting HPV vaccines in some developing countries in Southeast Asia will still face some challenges, even if they gain local market access, in terms of how to raise local people's awareness of vaccination.
"From a global perspective, we believe that there is still a lot of room for HPV vaccines. Currently, there are only two companies that can achieve global supply. For Chinese companies, there are great development opportunities, but the challenge is that the regulatory environment and regulatory requirements of each country are different. There are also differences in culture and payment capabilities between countries. These are the challenges we will face in the future. We may be more inclined to find some local partners to reduce or resolve these challenges." Jiang Dunquan, business development director of Kangle Guard, told reporters.
(This article comes from China Business Network)
