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The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan announced on the 20th that it will hold the next presidential election on September 27. Prior to this, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had already expressed his intention to give up running for the election.

This election is the first presidential election held after the Liberal Democratic Party was exposed for its "black money" scandal. Currently, 11 people are interested in joining the race.

Why did Kishida give up running for election? What impact will this move have on the political situation in Japan? We asked experts to explain it in detail for you. - Editor

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party will end on September 30. For the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida's decision not to run in the presidential election has come as a relief to everyone.

Kishida's government has been in a low support rate for nearly a year. If he uses his current position as prime minister to seek re-election, it will be difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to win the next general election, and the prospects are bleak. Therefore, although Kishida clings to power and makes various efforts to do so, it is still difficult to reverse the continued low centripetal force within the party and the decline in public support. In the end, he had to announce his resignation from the election for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party, and his three-year ruling career is coming to an end.

Scandal shakes ruling foundation

There are three main reasons for Kishida's resignation. First, the public resentment caused by power-for-money transactions has impacted Kishida's administration. The scandal of the LDP's high-level officials violating the Political Funds Regulation Act and using their power to seek improper income has caused great indignation among the people. They have lost basic trust in the LDP and Kishida's administration, and they are disgusted with the "arrogance" of the LDP's long-term rule to amass money recklessly and crazily. This is the direct reason for the low support rate of Kishida's cabinet.

Faced with the huge impact of the political funding scandal, Kishida adopted a strategy of "killing three birds with one stone". First, he took the lead in dissolving the "Hongchikai" of which he was the chairman, and then forced other factions of the Liberal Democratic Party to follow suit and dissolve. At the same time, he asked senior officials involved in the scandal to resign from their positions inside and outside the party, and established the Liberal Democratic Party's "Political Refresh Headquarters", etc., to show the people his determination to eliminate malpractices. Second, he used this to strike at the Abe faction, the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, and third, he tried to change his image of indecision. However, in this process, due to his stiff actions and his desire to highlight his personal decisiveness, he not only offended other factions, but more importantly, shook the foundation of the "iron triangle" that supported the operation of his regime. Taro Aso, the leader of the Aso faction and vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Toshimitsu Motegi, the representative of the Motegi faction and secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, were deeply dissatisfied with Kishida's dissolution of the faction without prior communication, which led to Kishida's lack of unity and centripetal force within the party. Amid internal and external difficulties, the approval rating has long hovered in "dangerous waters". Once the term of office expires, the Kishida administration will come to an end.

Secondly, Kishida's core policies have failed to become a solid foundation for maintaining the regime. To achieve long-term rule in Japan, it is necessary to rely on strong and effective economic policies. The core policy advocated by Kishida is the so-called "new capitalism", that is, to achieve a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution. The Kishida government has implemented a series of policy measures for the development and introduction of high-tech, and for the problem of low birth rate, which is a bottleneck for economic development. At the same time, it also pays attention to the balance between growth and distribution, such as repeatedly asking companies to increase wages appropriately. However, due to adverse factors such as the epidemic and the continued rise in prices, ordinary citizens have a weak sense of gain. In addition, the goal of the "new capitalism" is not clear, and the vision lacks appeal, giving people a sense of blandness.

Kishida's "forte" lost points

Third, Kishida's "forte" did not score any points, but backfired. Kishida served as foreign minister in the Abe government and was quite conceited about his performance in the fields of diplomacy and security during the three years in office. In the field of security, in December last year, the Kishida government officially issued a new version of the "National Security Strategy", "National Defense Strategy", "Defense Force Preparation Plan" and other so-called "three security documents". The key point is to completely break through Japan's post-war security concept of "exclusive defense", thereby making "preemptive strike" possible. At the same time, military spending doubled in five years to 2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Most of Kishida's diplomatic efforts are in line with the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" promoted by the United States.

Kishida's self-satisfied diplomacy and security have lost political points in at least three aspects, which is one of the deep-seated factors leading to his resignation. First, the security concept and measures violate the spirit of the peace constitution, which can be said to have shaken Japan's national foundation in a certain sense. Kishida's security strategy goes against public opinion and is bound to be abandoned by the people. Second, deliberately exaggerating the changes in Japan's international environment, especially taking China as an imaginary enemy, is neither objective nor wise, and is not in line with Japan's long-term national interests. Third, a substantial increase in military spending in the short term, especially in the case of a high national debt, will undoubtedly increase the burden on the people and cause strong dissatisfaction. Although Kishida's security measures cannot be called the last straw that broke the camel's back, they are undoubtedly the driving force that prompted him to "step down."

Changes in the “rules of the game” bring suspense

The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election campaign announcement will be released on September 12, and voting will be held on September 27. The 15-day campaign period is the longest in history, and the Liberal Democratic Party aims to win more public support by extending the campaign period.

Those currently interested in running for the election include former LDP Secretary-General Ishiba Shigeru, current Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Digital Minister Taro Kono, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Takeru Saito, and LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu.

This LDP presidential election will present a new form that is different from the past. In previous elections, factional politics played an important and even key role. Now that the political funding scandal has dealt a heavy blow to the LDP factions, members of parliament will have greater freedom in their voting intentions. The changes in the "rules of the game" and political dynamics will bring more suspense to the election.

Specifically, Ishiba Shigeru has participated in the presidential election many times. Although he is popular among ordinary people and grassroots members of the Liberal Democratic Party, he has been defeated every time because of his isolated position in the party's factional politics. With the dissolution of the faction this time, Ishiba Shigeru's chances of winning may increase. However, the shadow of factional politics within the party still exists, and Ishiba's challenge will still come from the votes of party members. Unlike Ishiba Shigeru, the current Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu has a relatively strong foundation in the party, but his lack of popularity among the people is his shortcoming. If he can enter the second round of voting, he may have a greater chance of winning.

Yoko Kamikawa is also considered to have a certain chance, while Sanae Takaichi's future is uncertain without Abe's support. If the younger generation of Taro Kono and Shinjiro Koizumi run for election, their main appeal may be to gain experience. Because of the changes in the political ecology within the LDP, it is still unknown whether a dark horse will emerge.

As far as Japan's domestic political ecology is concerned, the results of this election will not bring about fundamental changes. However, the new pattern of the reorganization of political forces within the Liberal Democratic Party will become clear with this election, which will have a significant impact on Japan's future politics and diplomacy. How the future Japanese prime minister handles Sino-Japanese relations depends not only on Japan's domestic political needs, but also on the results of the upcoming US election. It is necessary to observe and judge after the dust settles.

Hu Lingyuan Director of the Center for Japanese Studies, Fudan University