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Source: Huanqiu.com

[Global Times reporter Li Ziyu] According to a report by the British magazine The Economist on the 18th, several sources familiar with the matter revealed to the media that earlier in July, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sersky, was under considerable pressure when the front line in the Donetsk region was collapsing. Before the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Kursk Oblast, there were rumors that Sersky was on the verge of being dismissed.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sersky's profile picture is from British media

According to Xinhua News Agency, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced on February 8 that Sersky will replace Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Economist said that Serski has been trying to solve the "less than ideal legacy" left by his predecessor Zaluzhny in the past few months since he took office. The military leadership and the president disagreed on the conscription and mobilization policy, resulting in a serious shortage of manpower. In addition, the US Congress delayed aid to Ukraine, resulting in the loss of Avdeyevka in the northern Donetsk region.

The report added that in addition to rumors that Serski was on the verge of being fired, people associated with Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, also attacked Serski, saying he had been "lying" to his superiors.

According to reports, in the chaotic situation, Serski began to make plans. He considered several options, including attacking the Bryansk region or the Kursk region, or both, or attacking more regions. The Economist described this as "extraordinary measures for extraordinary times."

The Economist said that Serski kept the plan secret and only told a small number of generals and security officials. His conversation with Zelensky was also one-on-one. Ukraine's Western allies were also kept in the dark. Sources said that Serski's previous two operations were sabotaged by the West. One was leaked to the Russians and the other was asked to be terminated.

The report goes on to say that keeping the spread of the news to a "need to know" range would allow Ukraine to launch an attack before Russia learned of the situation. The source said, "They (Russia) realized that something was going to happen, but probably thought we needed US approval to carry out such a bold action." The report mentioned that in the face of the fait accompli, the West did not object.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast on the 6th of this month, and then the two sides broke out in fierce conflict in the state. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the situation on Russia's southern border on the 12th and said that Russia will resolutely respond to Ukraine's series of provocations in the border area. Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a video speech on the evening of the 18th, saying that one of the main purposes of Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast was to establish a buffer zone in Russia. Russian News Agency reported on the 19th that Russian presidential assistant Ushakov told the media that Russia would not talk to Ukraine at this stage. Zelensky said on the 19th that the Ukrainian army is achieving its set goals in the Kursk region.

Data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 19th showed that in the past day, the Ukrainian army lost more than 330 people and 4 tanks in the Kursk direction. In the entire battle in Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 3,800 people and 54 tanks. The Russian Ministry of Defense also stated that the Russian army continued to advance in the Donbas region and occupied more advantageous defense lines and positions in many areas, including controlling the large settlement of Artyomovo in the Donetsk region.

Further reading

The results announced by Russia and Ukraine must be discounted

After Ukraine announced in early August that it had "sunk" a Russian Black Sea Fleet submarine, the veteran driver mentioned that even the West questioned this achievement. Now new evidence has come - satellite photos have found that Russia has deployed a full-scale model of a submarine in the Sevastopol military port, which makes the outside world more suspicious that the Ukrainian army destroyed a decoy at the time.

Of course, for both Russia and Ukraine, the current battlefield is full of various strange baits, and even their combat statistics will be greatly reduced.

Satellite photos show that Russia has deployed a full-scale model of a submarine in the Sevastopol naval port

According to the US Navy News website, a Western commercial satellite recently discovered an inflatable model of a Kilo-class submarine next to the dock of the 13th Shipyard of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Sevastopol military port. Western submarine expert Sutton said that the Russian submarine model can be used to lure Ukraine into an attack in the future to avoid greater losses to the Black Sea Fleet. At present, the Russian military still has at least three Kilo-class submarines with combat capabilities.

This news immediately reminded everyone of Ukraine's major victory in early August. At that time, the Ukrainian army claimed that it had sunk a Russian submarine in the air strike on Sevastopol on August 2, "another major setback for Moscow in the Crimean Peninsula." According to the Ukrainian army's war report, the sunken submarine was the "Rostov-on-Don", a "Kilo" class submarine of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But the problem is that the submarine was severely damaged in the Ukrainian air strike in September last year, and the British Ministry of Defense claimed at the time that it had suffered "catastrophic damage" that could not be repaired. CNN said that the severely damaged submarine was unlikely to be repaired in just a few months.

Regarding this "inexplicable" situation, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that the "Rostov-on-Don" had been repaired before being hit on August 2, and was even starting sea trials, but the Ukrainian army has not produced any actual evidence of "sinking a Russian submarine." Therefore, now that satellite photos have proved that the Russian Navy has deployed an inflatable submarine model in the port, the outside world will naturally be more suspicious. Did the Ukrainian army fall into the Russian army's trap and hit only a submarine model?

Ukrainian military camouflaged anti-aircraft missile decoy

If this speculation is confirmed, Ukraine does not need to be discouraged because there are too many battlefield baits in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and both sides have been fooled more than once. The Russian army has already deployed various inflatable models of main combat weapons such as fighter jets and tanks on the battlefield, and even used real scrapped equipment as disguise to lure the Ukrainian army to attack.

However, the Russian army also has its share of perfunctory efforts. In April, the Austrian newspaper News reported that the British Ministry of Defense discovered through satellite photos that the Russian army had painted the outlines of fighter jets on the concrete runways of many airports, but "Russian helicopters often landed on the runways where fighter jets were painted, exposing this deceptive measure."

The Russian military painted the outlines of fighter jets on the concrete runways of several airports

Ukraine, which is generally at a disadvantage on the battlefield, has done more careful work in battlefield decoys. For example, the Russian army regards the Ukrainian army's "HIMARS" rocket launcher as a top threat, and even uses expensive ammunition such as "Iskander M" ballistic missiles and long-range cruise missiles for targeted strikes. The Ukrainian army seized the opportunity and used wood and inflatable equipment to make a lot of decoys imitating the "HIMARS" rocket launcher, which effectively attracted the Russian army's firepower. In 2022, a US diplomat said, "The Russian army claims to have hit more "HIMARS" than the total number we provided to Ukraine."

This situation has even affected the judgment of the results of the battle between the two sides. For example, the video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 16th showed that the Russian army used the "Iskander M" missile to destroy several Ukrainian "HIMARS" rocket launchers, IRIS-T and "Patriot" air defense systems. However, the authenticity of these results can only be determined by the explosion effects after they were attacked. The ammunition of the "HIMARS" rocket launcher exploded after being attacked, and the "Patriot" system tried to intercept the incoming missile before being hit. These should be true, but there was no explosion after the IRIS-T was hit, so its authenticity is very questionable.

Media: Putin's sudden visit to neighboring countries at a critical moment is mainly for three urgent tasks

Putin meets with Aliyev

According to CCTV News, on the 18th local time, Russian President Putin flew to Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, for a two-day state visit.

The unexpected visit immediately attracted attention from the outside world. Not only was it Putin's first visit to Azerbaijan in six years, but it was also the first time since World War II that a foreign army had invaded Russian territory during this tense period.

Currently, Ukraine claims to have controlled thousands of square kilometers of Russian territory and has set up an operations office in Kursk, seemingly preparing for a protracted war. Why is Putin so calm?

Confident about the situation

On the 18th, as soon as the special plane landed, Putin gave a warm hug to the Azerbaijani President and his wife who came to greet him.

Afterwards, Putin held an informal meeting with Azerbaijani President Aliyev and his wife, Azerbaijan's First Vice President Aliyeva, at the presidential residence.

Photos released by the Kremlin showed Putin wearing a white shirt with an open collar, smiling and talking with Aliyev, and the atmosphere was relaxed.

According to the schedule, on the 19th, Putin will attend an important ceremony to lay wreaths at the tomb of Aliyev's father, former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, and the "Eternal Flame" monument.

The two leaders will then hold a formal meeting at the presidential residence, including extensive talks and consultations. After the meeting, the two sides plan to hold a signing ceremony for joint documents and issue a statement to the media.

After the official agenda, the two leaders will visit White City and a church in Baku. Aliyev will also host a state reception for Putin.

However, in sharp contrast to the leisurely trip to Azerbaijan, the situation in Kursk, a Russian border state, remains tense.

The war has not subsided for more than 10 days since Ukraine invaded Russian territory on the 6th of this month.

The latest news is that the Ukrainian army claimed to have destroyed the second bridge in Kursk, severely damaging the Russian army's logistical supply capabilities.

How can Putin still make his visit with ease when the Ukrainian army is still "running rampant" on Russian territory?

Putin arrived at Baku Airport and shook hands with Azerbaijani President Aliyev

Zhao Huirong, Director of the Ukraine Research Office of the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social SciencesIt is believed that Putin's visit at a critical moment shows that Russia is confident in the current situation and believes that it still has the advantage and there is no need to disrupt the overall strategic deployment due to a surprise attack by Ukraine.

For the Russian side, the Ukrainian surprise attack on Kursk was unexpected, causing panic among local residents, and achieved some progress. In response, the Russian side has evacuated local residents, vacated Kursk, and deployed limited troops for support, but still positioned the "main battlefield" in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, rather than allocating large troops from eastern Ukraine as the Ukrainian side intended.

Zhao Huirong pointed out that Russia's actions show that it believes that Ukraine's actions will not reverse the overall situation and will not have a big impact on Russia. After all, Ukraine has occupied a limited area in the past 10 days of invading Kursk Oblast. It has not captured the nuclear power plant or the capital of Kursk Oblast, so it can continue to "fight yours and I fight mine". Therefore, "President Putin still visited when others thought it was very urgent."

In fact, despite the tense situation in Kursk, Moscow's diplomatic activities are still proceeding in an orderly manner. Last week, Putin received the visiting Palestinian President Abbas; this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be invited to Russia to host the 29th regular meeting of the Chinese and Russian prime ministers and visit Russia and Belarus; the Chinese and Russian deputy foreign ministers also held consultations in Beijing recently. A series of schedules have not been rescheduled due to the Kursk war.

Three urgent tasks

So, why choose to visit Azerbaijan?

In Zhao Huirong's view, this is closely related to changes in the regional situation, especially in Russia, Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus, where the situation has changed greatly in recent years. Putin's visit to Baku at this moment is not a sudden move. Specifically, there are three urgent tasks.

The first thing to do is to solve the problem of natural gas channels.

The Russian-Ukrainian gas transit agreement will expire at the end of this year, and Ukraine's surprise attack on Kursk further highlights its unwillingness to extend the agreement. Therefore, Russia needs to find another channel to transport natural gas to European partners such as Hungary, and Azerbaijan is the key direction.

In Russia's view, the gas pipelines through Azerbaijan and Turkey can not only continue to supply gas to European partners and maintain close ties between the two sides, but also alleviate pressure from the EU and even leave room for improving Russia-EU relations in the future.

Secondly, solve the problem of the north-south transportation corridor.

At present, Russia urgently needs to build the western part of the North-South transportation corridor, namely the Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran line, in order to break Europe's comprehensive sanctions and blockades on Russia's transportation, markets, etc., and expand economic ties with friendly countries.

Again, strive to take the initiative in a passive situation and ensure one's influence in the Southern Highlands region.

Traditionally, Russia's influence in the southern Caucasus is deeply rooted. However, since launching a special military operation against Ukraine, Russia has invested a lot of energy and resources in confronting Ukraine and the West, and has been forced to shrink in the southern Caucasus, thus reducing its influence.

Last year, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ended with Azerbaijan regaining the occupied territory, and the geopolitical situation in the Southern Caucasus region underwent significant changes.

At present, among the three countries in the southern Caucasus, Georgia has roughly determined the direction of "looking west" and has now become a candidate country for the European Union; Armenia, which previously followed Russia, believed that Russia did not play its due role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, so it adjusted its foreign policy, gradually moving away from Russia and getting closer to the West; Azerbaijan's influence in the region has further increased, while it has adhered to a diversified and balanced foreign policy and maximized its own interests through the game between major powers, and its diplomatic stance has shown a unique side.

"Against this background, Russia hopes to turn a passive position into an active one, strengthen coordination with Azerbaijan, and safeguard its influence in the southern Caucasus region as much as possible," said Zhao Huirong.

According to the Kremlin, during the visit, the two sides will exchange views on further developing strategic partnership and alliance relations and international and regional hot issues, including resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Zhao Huirong added that how to actively interact and cooperate under the multilateral framework is also expected to be an important topic of discussion during the meeting between the two leaders. For example, Azerbaijan has expressed its desire to join the BRICS, and Russia will host the BRICS summit in October, and the two sides are expected to discuss this topic.

Foreign media reported that Russian troops have approached Pokrovsk. The picture shows a screenshot of the relevant report.

How will the war develop?

After all, Putin's visit took place at a tense and sensitive time when Ukraine invaded Russian territory, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially the situation in Kursk, was also considered a topic that could not be avoided.

Regarding the current situation, Russia and Ukraine still seem to be talking at cross purposes.

Ukraine claims to have controlled thousands of square kilometers of Russian territory and is continuing its offensive. On the same day that Putin arrived in Baku for a visit, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that one of the main purposes of Ukraine's attack on Kursk Oblast was to establish a buffer zone in Russia.

The Russian side said that the situation in Kursk has been brought under control and more than 120,000 Russians have been evacuated.

The outside world has noticed that the Russian army is still continuing its fierce attack on eastern Ukraine and is approaching the city of Pokrovsk, an important military hub in Donetsk.

What is the "truth" about Kursk?

Zhao Huirong believes that Russia and Ukraine’s external statements can be seen as a propaganda need aimed at stabilizing their own people’s hearts and boosting their own morale.

Objectively speaking, Ukraine's offensive speed seems to have slowed down after Russia strengthened its defense, and it has only occupied a small part of Kursk Oblast so far; Russia has not yet transferred its main forces to Kursk, but is still strengthening its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

For Ukraine, attacking Kursk and occupying more Russian territory is to accumulate more bargaining chips for future negotiations and even achieve "land for land."

As far as Russia is concerned, the most ideal situation is to expel the enemy from the country as soon as possible, but the war in Kurdistan has been going on for many days. Russia failed to "win a quick victory" for the following reasons: first, it believes that the war in Kurdistan will not affect the overall situation, and may even think that a breakthrough in the Donbass region is more strategically significant; second, evacuating Kurdistan residents may be intended to cut off the Ukrainian army's supply lines and annihilate its manpower after assembling; third, in the context of fighting on two fronts abroad and at home, Russia may think that the current arrangement is relatively safe.

Regarding the future direction of the situation, Zhao Huirong believes that there are several points to pay attention to.

First, can Ukraine hold on to the occupied areas and expand its offensive?

As Russia builds fortifications and makes countermeasures, it will be difficult for Ukraine to advance. At the same time, Ukraine will also face risks such as long logistics supply lines, insufficient "resilience" of mercenaries, and disadvantages in away games.

Second, what tactics will Russia adopt in response?

If a large number of troops are deployed to Kursk to confront the tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, Ukraine is expected to be outnumbered, but at the same time it may allow Ukraine to achieve the goal of relieving the pressure on the eastern Ukrainian front; if Russia has no intention of mobilizing large numbers of troops, it may fall into a tug-of-war.

Third, to what extent will the West provide Ukraine in the future?

Since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has actually been controlling the pace of the conflict, allowing Russia and Ukraine to consume each other.

As for the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, Zhao Huirong does not expect it to be the target of direct attacks by Ukraine. "After all, the risk is too great. If a nuclear leak occurs, Ukraine will be held responsible. Moreover, the nuclear power plant is very close to the Ukrainian border and may harm itself. The loss will outweigh the gain for Ukraine."