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【Text/Liu Chenghui of Observer Network】

"The real pressure on the US and European militaries is coming." On the 15th, China announced that it would implement export controls on antimony and other items, which attracted public attention. Many foreign media have noted that antimony plays a key role in the manufacture of military equipment. Last year, China's antimony mining accounted for almost half of the world's total. In recent years, the United States has been a major buyer of antimony ore, and its military industry is heavily dependent on antimony. China's latest regulatory pressure will also force US companies to speed up the pace of domestic antimony mining.

In the view of some analysts, China's latest export controls are a reflection of geopolitical tensions. Against the backdrop of the Biden administration's "small yard, high wall" strategy, China's move can be seen as a tit-for-tat countermeasure against the United States' restrictions on chip manufacturing, artificial intelligence and other technologies.

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce stressed on the 15th that China has learned from international practices and implemented export controls on relevant items based on its own needs in order to better safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation. The relevant policies are not targeted at any specific country or region.

As a strategic metal, antimony is not only used in the production of batteries and photovoltaic equipment, but is also widely used in ammunition, infrared-guided missiles,nuclear weapon, night vision goggles and other military equipment. China occupies a dominant position in the mining and supply of antimony ore.

Reuters reported on the 15th that China is a major producer of antimony, accounting for 48% of global antimony mining output last year. Bloomberg also cited a 2023 EU report that over the past few decades, China has gradually become the world's largest supplier of more than 30 key minerals, with antimony ore supply accounting for 56% of the world's total.

According to the Hong Kong English media South China Morning Post, the US International Trade Commission once stated that antimony is a mineral that is vital to economic and national security. According to a 2024 report by the US Geological Survey, the main uses of antimony in the United States include the production of antimony-lead alloys and ammunition and flame retardants. Of the antimony ore and its oxides imported by the United States in 2019-2022, 63% came from China.

Although China's antimony mining volume has been declining in recent years, China's antimony production still reached 40,000 tons last year, accounting for nearly half of the world's total.

The Nikkei reported that China's restriction on antimony exports was the latest control measure on key metal resources. Bloomberg reported that China had previously implemented export controls on other key minerals such as gallium and germanium, which had already aroused "alertness" from the United States.

The Associated Press (AP) reported that although it is unclear to what extent China's control will go, China mentioned that this measure "is aimed at better safeguarding national security and fulfilling international obligations such as non-proliferation." The word "non-proliferation" may mean that the use of weapons involved will be subject to export restrictions.

In an April research report, securities analysts predicted that increased international demand for weapons and ammunition due to wars and geopolitical tensions may prompt relevant parties to strengthen control over antimony mines and increase inventories.

According to reports, with the support of the US Department of Defense and the Export-Import Bank, the US resource company "Perpetua Resources" was originally building a gold and antimony mine project in Idaho, which was originally expected to start production in 2028. Now China's latest antimony mine control means that the company has to study ways to speed up mining.

"We are looking at what we can do during construction to get the antimony out faster to meet some of these strategic needs," Perpetua Resources CEO Jon Cherry told Reuters. "The (U.S.) Department of Defense is aware of the criticality of antimony and the shortage of available supply. We've heard from a lot of different sources that there is a shortage of antimony, the market is very tight, and it's getting tighter every day."

Some analysts believe that China's export controls on antimony may be related to the geopolitical tensions between China and the United States.

"This is a symbol of the times." Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist at the US investment institution Hallgarten & Company in the UK, said that the military use of antimony ore is now like "the tail wags the dog" (referring to the means of using the weak to fight the strong). Everyone needs antimony to make weapons, so instead of selling it, it is better to hold on to it.

"This will put real pressure on American and European militaries," he added.

The South China Morning Post reported that analysts and experts believe that this move is China's countermeasure against the restrictions imposed by the United States in technology fields such as chips. Since antimony is too important for manufacturing military equipment, China's move will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the United States to produce weapons. As the Biden administration implements the "small yard and high wall" strategy, the United States' technological restrictions continue to escalate, and China has also strengthened export controls on key minerals.

The report quoted military expert Fu Qianshao as saying that China's controls would obviously create difficulties for the United States to produce military weapons.

"This move was a well-considered decision. By restricting exports, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the world's major arms manufacturers, especially the United States." Fu Qianshao said that the US military industry is heavily dependent on antimony, and large-scale production of military equipment is inseparable from this metal.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, described the export controls as a "retaliatory signal" from China.

She said China hopes to make it clear that not only can the United States impose export controls on dual-use technologies, but China also has military technology that can be "weaponized."

The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on August 15, announcing that they will implement export controls on antimony and other items. According to the announcement jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, antimony-related items such as antimony ore and raw materials, metal antimony and products, and superhard material-related items shall not be exported without permission.

The announcement clearly states that the export of the items listed in the announcement that have a significant impact on national security shall be reported to the State Council for approval by the Ministry of Commerce together with relevant departments. If approved after review, the Ministry of Commerce will issue an export license for dual-use items and technologies.

The new regulations will come into effect on September 15 this year.

On the 15th, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce of China responded to reporters' questions about the export control policy for antimony and other items and emphasized that it is an internationally accepted practice to implement export control on antimony and superhard materials. China has learned from international practices and implemented export control on relevant items according to its own needs, aiming to better safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation. The relevant policies are not targeted at any specific country or region. Exports that comply with relevant regulations will be permitted.

The spokesperson said that the Chinese government firmly maintains world peace and stability in neighboring regions, ensures the security of global industrial chains and supply chains, and promotes the development of compliant trade. At the same time, it opposes any country or region using controlled items from China to engage in activities that undermine China's national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

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