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Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that Samsung's foldable smartphone shipments will be around 8-9 million units this year

2024-08-13

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IT Home reported on August 13 that Ming-Chi Kuo released a market investment briefing today, believing that Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6 phones released in July 2024 will use Galaxy AI as the main selling point, but pre-orders fell 10% year-on-year.It is estimated that Samsung's foldable phone shipments will be 8-9 million units in 2024, a slight decline from last year.


IT Home attached the information of Guo Mingchi's briefing as follows:

Industry status and survey updates:

  • Although the initial demand for Samsung's S24 series mobile phones was better than expected, the shipment momentum has slowed down since April.

  • Samsung's new foldable phones (Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6) in July 2024 also use AI as a major selling point, but pre-orders fell 10% year-on-year. Samsung's foldable phone shipments this year are expected to be about 8-9 million units, a slight decline from last year.

  • It is currently expected that the S25 series shipments in 2025 may be on par with the S24 in 2024.

in conclusion:
  • It is an inevitable trend for mobile phone brands to invest in AI services. Based on this trend, there will definitely be certain component suppliers that benefit from this investment trend (regardless of whether device-side AI can continue to boost demand for replacement phones).

  • There is currently no clear evidence to show whether Google/Samsung's continued improvement of local AI services can once again drive a wave of phone replacement.

  • The shipment volume of Android foldable phones (Samsung & Chinese brands) is slower than expected. If the user experience of foldable phones is not significantly improved, the growth space of foldable phones may be limited in the short term.

  • Some market participants are optimistic that mobile phone and PC shipments will grow dramatically due to local AI. If the shipments of the iPhone 16 series cannot exceed expectations after its release in 2H24 due to Apple Intelligence, the above optimistic expectations may be revised and cause downside risks for related stocks in the short term.