In fact, the region has long been in a state of war. But so far, the conflict has been under control, with both sides carefully controlling the situation and adopting a tit-for-tat, cat-and-mouse strategy.

Israel has now broken with this unstable status quo. In the process, it has undermined 75 years of a rules-based order, the laws of war, and international humanitarian law. Israel has defied the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.

These institutions have failed because the Western countries that created the agreements have abandoned them.

The United States, Germany, Britain, and others supplied Israel with weapons. They provided political and moral support for the killing. They did little to stop the killing. The breakdown of the international order is their fault.

Escalation of conflict

The New York Times, citing unspecified "Middle Eastern" sources, recently reported that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb that had been smuggled into the Tehran hotel where he was staying several months earlier.

I think the news was most likely passed through Mossad, because one of the journalists in the report, Ronen Bergman, had close ties to Israeli intelligence - only Mossad could have such detailed knowledge of the assassination plan.

The New York Times did not say how the device got into the hotel or how it was placed in the room. If the report is true, the level of access required for the operation would seem to indicate that Mossad had a high-ranking and trusted spy embedded in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

IRGC officials strongly denied the New York Times report, claiming the attack was carried out by Israeli missiles or drones.

They also raised the possibility that Israel had located Haniyeh by installing spyware in his phone and obtaining GPS data. A senior Hamas official who was present at the time also refuted the New York Times report.

Israel's assassination was aimed at Iran, its main regional rival, and may also be intended to weaken the political standing of its newly elected reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

Israel hopes that a hard-line leadership will protect its interests, namely regional instability and escalation of conflict.

The assassination was also a blatant provocation to the Biden administration’s attempts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. For months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been undermining repeated overtures by Qatari mediators and U.S. officials. He’s doing this because he needs war to maintain power.

A former US intelligence official who resigned in protest against US policy on Gaza said Israel is seeking a war with Hezbollah to achieve "political goals" that would also advance the prime minister's political interests.

Killing Haniyeh would derail ceasefire talks. Hamas might never return to the negotiating table again. That's exactly what Netanyahu wants - a never-ending war.

Perfect Timing

The Biden administration humiliated itself after Haniyeh’s assassination, claiming that it was neither involved in nor aware of the assassination.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken later published an official statement refusing to acknowledge the disastrous impact of Haniyeh’s assassination on the prospects for a ceasefire.

"It is imperative that all parties make the right choices in the coming days, because those choices will determine whether to continue on a path of violence, insecurity, suffering, or to move to a path that is better for all parties concerned," Blinken said.

"A ceasefire ... is in the interest of the Israelis; it's in the interest of the Palestinians. It's in the interest of the entire region. So as long as everybody focuses on their core interests ... we can get a deal."

Clearly, Netanyahu does not agree with this assessment of Israel's interests.

Netanyahu timed the assassination attempt with great precision: right after he delivered a lengthy speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, singing his praises.

He also took advantage of political turmoil in Washington after a weak U.S. president was recently forced to withdraw from the presidential race.

Israel’s prime minister believes that the U.S. government is unable or unwilling to object to or criticize the move (which is true). Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris does not have the power to make decisions even if she wants to propose a different approach.

Despite the Democrats' strong support for Israel's attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli prime minister gave them a warning.

Insulting national honor

Iran's Grand Ayatollah Khamenei convened an emergency national security meeting within five hours of the attack. He ordered Iran to retaliate, but it was unclear what the details were.

Clearly, Tehran intends to strike back forcefully in retaliation for the insult to its national honor. This could mean that Hezbollah, Iran's closest ally in the region, would also attack Israel. Should that happen, Israel would be expected to launch a retaliatory counterattack of its own.

Israel has been seeking war with Hezbollah since October 7, 2023. In fact, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had urged a preemptive strike against Lebanese militias before attacking Hamas. But the plan was abandoned in the face of US opposition.

He did this because Hezbollah is much more powerful than Hamas and can launch thousands of advanced missiles at major Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv (home to Israel's military headquarters) and Haifa.

These attacks and counterattacks could lead to a full-scale regional war. If Israel launches direct air strikes on Iranian territory, Iran will likely use this as an excuse to start a war. We would then be facing a conflict that no one can control. The material losses and death toll would be enormous.

And the conflict will not be limited to Israel and Iran. Iran’s allies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen will also be drawn in.

On the other hand, the United States has pledged to become a direct combatant in the first conflict in the Middle East since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. According to Axios, Blinken held a telephone conference with G7 foreign ministers on August 4 and told them that Iran and Hezbollah are expected to launch attacks within the next 24 hours.

Biden assured Netanyahu that the United States would provide military support for such an attack and pledged to increase the U.S. military presence in the region. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin detailed the naval and air force resources that will be sent to the region: "The United States is sending an aircraft carrier strike group, a fighter squadron, and other warships to the Middle East as the region prepares for Iranian retaliation."

The administration’s policies run counter to American public opinion, which opposes Biden and Israel’s approach to the conflict.

Americans do not want to be drawn into another Middle East war—a war that the president of the United States is promoting, whether he knows it or not.

About the author: Richard Silverstein writes the Tikun Olam blog, dedicated to exposing the brutality of Israel’s national security apparatus. His work has appeared in Haaretz, Forward, The Seattle Times, and The Los Angeles Times.

The article is for communication and learning purposes only and does not represent the views of Rixin.