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The S&P recorded its biggest drop in two years, the Dow Jones plunged 1,000 points, and Nvidia barely held $100

2024-08-06

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* All three major stock indexes fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting 1,000 points;

* Chicago Fed President Goolsbee downplays recession risks.

*Berkshire reduced its holdings by nearly half, and Apple fell nearly 5%.

On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell as concerns about a U.S. recession rattled global markets, forcing investors to withdraw from risky assets.As of the close, the Dow fell 1,033.99 points, or 2.60%, to 38,703.27, the Nasdaq fell 3.43% to 16,200.08, and the S&P 500 fell 3.00% to 5,186.33, the biggest drop since September 2022. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index VIX once soared by more than 200% during the session and closed at 38.57, up 64.9%.

Medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields bottomed out and rebounded.The 2-year Treasury bond, which is closely related to interest rate expectations, rose nearly 1 basis point to 3.88%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell 1.5 basis points to 3.78%, continuing to hit a 13-month low.


Market Overview

In terms of individual stocks, Apple fell 4.8%. Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter report showed that the company nearly halved its holdings in Apple last quarter.

Nvidia closed down 6.4%.The stock price fell more than 14% in early trading. It was reported that the company's flagship artificial intelligence chip Blackwell may be delayed due to design problems, affecting major customers such as Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet's Google.Microsoft fell 3.3%, Meta fell 2.5%, and Google fell 4.6%.

Concerns about a recession also weighed on the banking sector, with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley falling more than 2%.

Global capital market turmoil intensified on Monday after Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed unemployment at its highest level in nearly three years, fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve could cause a recession.“There’s a growing sense that the Fed is now behind the curve,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “One thing that seems certain is that there’s going to be more volatility ahead.”

Neville Javeri, portfolio manager at Allspring, believes the sell-off is a continuation of last week's anxiety. "It started with last week's jobs data, which clearly gave people confidence that the Fed needs to start being more aggressive in responding to where these unemployment numbers are going."

Traders now see a more than 90% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.However, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee downplayed concerns about a recession on the same day, but said Fed officials needed to recognize the changes in the environment.

Institutions also attributed some of the stock market weakness to the unwinding of carry trades, in which investors borrow from low-interest-rate economies such as Japan or Switzerland to fund investments in higher-yielding assets."Given the 15% return in the first half of the year and the balanced risks of late in the economic cycle, a correction of more than 5% in the stock market would not be unusual," said Jason Pride, an analyst at Glenmede. "Investors should actively rebalance their portfolios and keep a close eye on the risks that could tip the U.S. into a recession."

In terms of economic data, the U.S. service industry recovered in July, which to some extent eased concerns about economic slowdown.Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the U.S. services activity index rose to 51.4 last month from 48.8 in June, better than economists' forecast of 50.9 and bringing the index above the boom-bust line of 50 again.

However, the Conference Board's employment trends index fell to 109.61 in July from a revised 110.58 in June. Michelle Barnes, an economist at the Conference Board, said the slowdown was consistent with other signs of a slowdown. He said: "The labor market is clearly cooling down from its frenetic pace after the pandemic."

Among other stocks, Kellanova rose 16% after media reports said Mars was considering acquiring the snack maker.

International oil prices fell, with the nearest month contract of WTI crude oil falling 0.79% to $72.94 per barrel and the nearest month contract of Brent crude oil falling 0.66% to $76.30 per ounce.

International gold prices rose and then fell, with the COMEX gold futures contract for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling 0.99% to $2,401.70 an ounce.