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The gap between M2 and M1 is still high

According to the data from the central bank on July 15, at the end of June, China's M2 balance was 305.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; the M1 balance was 66.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Compared with May, the growth rates of M2 and M1 both fell by 0.8%, hitting a record low, and the gap between the two continued to remain at a high level of 11.2%. Since February 2023, the growth rate of M2 has been declining along with the growth rate of various loans, and is generally in a downward channel.

In the first half of this year, especially since the suspension of manual interest payments on deposits in April, "financial disintermediation" has weakened the economic significance of financial data to a certain extent, and the topic of "deposit relocation" remains hot. From the deposit data, the new RMB deposits in June were 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25 trillion yuan. Among them, the deposits of residents and enterprises increased by 533.6 billion yuan and 1.06 trillion yuan respectively, while the deposits of non-bank financial institutions and fiscal deposits decreased by 152 billion yuan and 230.3 billion yuan respectively. (Yicai Global)

｜Comments｜The decline in the growth rate of M1 is related to the suspension of "manual interest rate adjustments". In the past, banks have been banned from manually raising interest rates for large customers' deposits by regulatory authorities. The "water squeeze" of financial data has had some impact on short-term data. Despite the impact of policies, the widening gap between M2 and M1 still reflects the slowdown in the circulation of money in the economy and the low willingness of enterprises and residents to invest and consume.

The probability of the central bank boosting the economy by cutting interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year has increased. Domestic prices have been relatively mild throughout the first half of the year, and the central bank does not need to worry about inflation for the time being. At this stage, the market is eagerly looking forward to the dual efforts of monetary and fiscal policies. The central government's release of incremental money can stimulate downstream demand, play a leverage role, and accelerate the domestic economic recovery process.

More than 70% of new orders in the shipbuilding industry were won by China

On July 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the latest data on my country's shipbuilding industry in the first half of 2024. The three major indicators of China's shipbuilding industry continued to grow steadily. In the first half of 2024, my country's shipbuilding completion volume was 25.02 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%; the number of new orders was 54.22 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%; as of the end of June, the number of orders on hand was 171.55 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%. The three major indicators accounted for 55%, 74.7% and 58.9% of the world market share respectively.

Among the 18 major ship types in the world, China ranks first in the world in terms of new orders for 14 types of ship types. High-end ship types have full orders, and profits have increased nearly 2 times year-on-year. The national shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 253.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%; and achieved a total profit of 16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187.5%. (CCTV News)

｜Comments｜China has ranked first in the world in terms of global shipbuilding orders for more than a decade. In the first half of the year, the domestic shipbuilding industry is more noteworthy for its high profit growth. In recent years, the "three pearls" in the crown of the global shipbuilding industry - aircraft carriers, large liquefied natural gas carriers, and large cruise ships - have all been won by China's shipbuilding industry. The booming development of China's shipbuilding industry is related to its economic model. As an export-oriented country, compared with land and air transportation, sea transportation has obvious advantages in terms of price and transportation volume, and there is a great demand for ships. Where there is demand, there is naturally a driving force for research and development. Japan and South Korea, which are also typical export-oriented countries, are also traditional shipbuilding powers.

China can receive a large number of orders not only because of its technological catch-up, but also because of its high shipbuilding efficiency. The shipping industry is a typical cyclical industry. After the boom cycle, it becomes more difficult to make money. Shipbuilding is a major project that can take several years. Chinese shipbuilding companies often "work hard for 100 days" to increase the construction speed, which is difficult for Japanese and Korean companies to do.

Samsung continues to lead the global smartphone market

According to the latest research by market research firm Canalys on July 16, the global smartphone market has grown year-on-year for three consecutive quarters, with shipments increasing by 12% quarter-on-quarter to 288 million units in the second quarter of 2024. Samsung continues to lead the world with an 18% market share, once again making the high-end market a strategic focus; Apple follows closely with a 16% market share, ranking second; Xiaomi follows closely with a 15% market share, and becomes the fastest growing manufacturer among the top five manufacturers with an annual growth rate of 27%.

Amber Liu, research manager at Canalys, said: "The global smartphone market continues to be optimistic, driven by innovative technologies such as generative artificial intelligence and the recovery of market demand. Since the beginning of 2024, the easing of inflation in emerging markets in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America has stimulated shipment growth in the mass market price segment." (China Securities Journal)

｜Comments｜Samsung and Apple still hold the top two positions, but their leading position seems to be challenged. Emerging markets and AI mobile phone concepts are bringing a new round of impact to the industry. The driving force of market growth seems to be shifting from traditional mature markets to emerging markets. The growing demand in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America has provided a broad space for development for manufacturers such as Xiaomi and Transsion. In particular, Xiaomi's 27% annual growth is impressive. If this growth trend continues, it may have a significant impact on the existing market structure.

For Samsung and Apple, generative AI may become their new moat. Currently, both Samsung and Apple are actively developing AI, and the high-end mobile phone market can bring huge profits to the companies, which may become a new focus of differentiated competition in smartphones in the future. However, how to truly transform AI technology into value and make consumers pay for it is still an important challenge facing the two manufacturers.

Shenzhen to launch self-driving bus routes

According to news on July 16, Shenzhen Bus Group plans to launch 20 self-driving buses in Qianhai this year. The Fifth Branch of Shenzhen Bus Group has been approved to open and operate four self-driving bus routes including Line B998, which are expected to be officially opened at the end of July. The first route uses a new 6-meter 9-seat new energy self-driving minibus, which has both "single-vehicle intelligence" and "vehicle-road collaboration" technical routes, and the whole vehicle has complete self-driving functions in terms of technology.

Earlier, Shanghai officially issued a license for the demonstration application of driverless intelligent connected vehicles. All intelligent driving companies are mainly focusing on the preparation and fine-tuning of the early stage of the test. It is expected that the field test of driverless intelligent connected vehicles for ordinary citizens will be launched within the next week at the earliest. The test period will be free of charge. (Compiled by The Paper)

｜Comments｜As more and more cities issue driverless car licenses, driverless technology is flourishing in China. Buses are a good field for driverless technology to be applied. Bus routes are fixed, there are dedicated bus lanes, and the road conditions encountered during driving are relatively simple. Moreover, after the vehicle-road-cloud integration project is gradually rolled out, buses are connected to the traffic network, which can obtain more road information to assist driverless driving, and dispatching is also more convenient.

Autonomous driving technology is currently in the testing phase. Whether it is an online car-hailing service or a bus, it requires real-time monitoring by a safety officer, and the cost is not as low as imagined. With the iteration of technology, autonomous vehicles will be able to handle various road conditions more calmly, which may reduce costs and improve economic benefits.

Douyin beauty brand refunds 150 million yuan for false advertising

On July 16, Luo Wangyu, the No. 1 beauty influencer on Douyin, recently released a video to apologize to all consumers who bought the CSS olive essence product he promoted, and promised to refund a total of 150 million yuan. Previously, the product was exposed to not contain key ingredients such as "oleuropein" and "hydroxytyrosol", which aroused public doubts, and Luo Wangyu's account quickly lost more than one million followers.

In the face of this false advertising storm, Luo Wangyu sent a lawyer's letter to the brand CSS on March 2, and reported the brand's suspected false advertising to the market supervision department. However, three months later, the brand did not give a satisfactory compensation plan, and Luo Wangyu finally decided to refund the consumers first. After being caught up in the public opinion storm, the sales of Luo Wangyu's live broadcast room also fell sharply. (21 Economic Network)

｜Comments｜As a bridge between consumers and brands, anchors have proportional benefits and risks. While enjoying massive fan traffic, they also have to bear unknown risks. Once product quality problems or false advertising occur, even if the problem may come from the brand, the anchors are often the first to bear the brunt of the responsibility. How to balance the rights and interests of anchors, brands and consumers, and how to establish a more complete quality supervision and accountability mechanism are issues that the industry urgently needs to solve.

The live streaming market is becoming saturated, consumers are becoming more rational, and the former big anchors are gradually retreating behind the scenes. Even if there is no problem with the product, it is difficult to maintain high growth by simply relying on "selling goods". Against this background, live streaming technology is constantly innovating, content forms are emerging in an endless stream, and the industry is still constantly exploring new possibilities. In the future, perhaps only those anchors and platforms that can adapt to this change and continue to innovate can survive in this fiercely competitive market.

The first batch of Saudi ETFs in China hit the daily limit on the first day of listing

On July 16, the first domestic Saudi ETFs, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP Saudi Arabia ETF and China Southern Fund CSOP Saudi Arabia ETF, were listed and traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange respectively. Both Saudi ETFs closed at the daily limit, with a premium rate of more than 6%, and transaction volumes of 2.838 billion yuan and 2.058 billion yuan respectively.

It is worth noting that the turnover rate of Southern Saudi ETF exceeded 420%, ranking first in the ETF market, followed by Huatai-PineBridge Saudi ETF, with a turnover rate of over 330%. According to industry insiders, since cross-border ETFs adopt the "T+0" mechanism, multiple transactions can be carried out within a day, and the ETF tax and commission levels are relatively low, the chips can be repeatedly exchanged within a day, so they may show a higher turnover rate data. (Daily Economic News)

｜Comments｜The listing of the two Saudi ETFs has opened a window for Chinese investors to the stock market of the largest economy in the Middle East. From the perspective of the market and the underlying, Saudi Arabia, as an important oil producer in the world, has a stock market that is closely related to energy prices, which can bring new balance and hedging effects to investors' asset portfolios. This risk management feature is particularly important in the current environment of high global economic uncertainty.

However, as a new investment target, the high premium and abnormally high turnover rate on the first day of listing also sounded the alarm, and abnormal movements may occur in the future. In the past two years, the linkage between Saudi Arabia and China's capital markets has become more frequent, and more products may be launched. For long-term investors, they should pay more attention to the fundamentals and long-term development prospects of the Saudi market, rather than being swayed by short-term market sentiment.

The Shanghai Composite Total Return Index will be released soon

On July 16, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. jointly announced that they decided to officially release the real-time quotes of the Shanghai Composite Total Return Index from July 29 to reflect the overall performance of Shanghai Stock Exchange listed companies after dividend income is included. At the same time, the index code and abbreviation will be adjusted to "000888" and "Shanghai Stock Return" respectively.

The Shanghai Composite Total Return Index is a derivative index of the Shanghai Composite Index. It consists of samples of eligible stocks and depositary receipts listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and includes sample dividends in the index income, reflecting the overall performance of Shanghai Stock Exchange listed companies after dividend income is included. The index takes July 21, 2020 as the base date and 3320.89 points as the base point. The sample space of the index consists of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and depositary receipts issued by red chip companies, excluding ST and *ST securities. (Shanghai Stock Exchange official website)

｜Comments｜After a listed company distributes dividends, the stock price will go through an ex-rights process, and the stock price will be adjusted down accordingly. The Shanghai Composite Index is a price index, and when the constituent stocks are ex-rights, it will drag down the quotation of the Shanghai Composite Index. The Shanghai Composite Index does not have such price disturbances and can better reflect the overall price fluctuations in the market. In 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index was adjusted, mainly to postpone the inclusion of new stocks, kick out ST stocks as soon as possible and include them in the Science and Technology Innovation Board. However, the old version of the Shanghai Composite Index is more than 300 points higher than the current Shanghai Composite Index.

The Shanghai Composite Index is an important reference indicator for investors to judge the overall market trend, but the correlation between the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and whether investors' actual accounts are profitable has become increasingly lower.

The two markets fluctuated and diverged on Tuesday, with the ChiNext Index rising 1.39%

On July 16, the market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, and the ChiNext Index rose in the afternoon. On the market, consumer electronics concept stocks strengthened again, smart driving and online car-hailing concept stocks continued to be active, computing power concept stocks fluctuated and rebounded, and ST stocks strengthened collectively. On the decline, film and television concept stocks collectively adjusted, and childcare services, papermaking, insurance and other sectors fell the most. Overall, the number of stocks that rose and fell was not much different. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 640.7 billion, an increase of 38.6 billion from the previous trading day.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2976.3 points, up 0.08%, with a turnover of 279.1 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 8877.02 points, up 0.86%, with a turnover of 361.6 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 1696.34 points, up 1.39%, with a turnover of 163.2 billion yuan. (Sina Finance)

｜Comments｜The performance of the two markets diverged on Tuesday, and the market rebounded in the afternoon. From the perspective of sectors, gold and consumer electronics sectors rose together, and the two emotions of risk aversion and seeking excess returns appeared in the market. The technology sector became the direction of active funds' counterattack, and AI mobile phones, unmanned driving and other directions were relatively active. The hype of the film and television theater sector quickly receded, with the largest decline, and the banking and insurance sectors performed relatively weakly.

With the support of funds, the market's game mentality reappeared, and the market began to expect positive news. Overall, it was difficult to change the characteristics of a short-term rebound. The overall market participation was low, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Return Index was widely ridiculed by the market. Whether the technology sector can take over from dividend stocks and become the main line of the market depends on whether the overall market participation can be restored in the future.

The stock market and futures content in this article is for reference only

No investment advice

Column Editor|Wei Yingjie| Editor-in-Chief|He Mengfei

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