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a war in the middle east is about to break out. iran and israel are facing a head-on confrontation. the longer the war lasts, the more disadvantageous it will be for israel.

2024-10-07

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if iran, known as the "persian iron cavalry", and israel, the "little bully of the middle east", come to grips with each other, who among them will win the final victory?

(war between israel and iran is imminent)

according to media reports such as global network, u.s. president biden said that israel has not yet decided to retaliate against iran. however, after israel was hit by more than 180 missiles this time and suffered heavy losses at air force bases and radar positions, if it does not retaliate, israel will there will be no shame in the middle east. it's just that the scale of the retaliation is still uncertain.

at the same time, it is certain that as long asisraelif someone takes action, it will be a war between iran and israel, and it may even develop into a war in the middle east. so who is more powerful between iran and israel, and who will win the war?

(israel clearly has air superiority)

various materials have previously made a basic comparison of the military strength of iran and israel, including the number of troops, the number of tanks, artillery and fighter jets, as well as military expenditures. these basic statistics are important, but they are not all factors that determine the outcome of a battle between the two sides. if iran and israel really start to fight, we will mainly look at the following points, namely combat objectives, combat methods, combat scale, duration, etc.

the first is the combat objectives. different combat objectives determine different combat directions. some combat goals are to invade the opponent's territory and resources, such as japan's invasion of china and iraq's invasion of kuwait in 1990; some combat goals are to weaken and attack the opponent and force the other party to accept some unequal conditions, such as the kosovo war.natothe bombing of yugoslavia; some were purely revenge attacks.

(iran has an advantage in missiles)

if israel simply retaliates this time, the targets and means of attack on both sides will be relatively limited, and there will be no winner or loser. but if israel wants to take the opportunity to attack iran's nuclear facilities and completely deprive iran of its nuclear capabilities, it will rise to the level of war. since israel also has nuclear facilities and iran also has large-scale long-range missile attack capabilities, it will be a lose-lose situation by then.

the second is the method of combat, whether it is air combat, naval combat, ground combat, or compound warfare. since iran and israel do not share a land border, the fighting methods between the two sides are basically limited to air strikes and missile attacks. the occurrence of maritime combat is only a small probability event, because israel has submarines and can secretly go to the arabian sea to attack iranian ships.

(israel is backed by americans)

if this is the way of fighting, the iranians will at least not be left behind and may even take the initiative. because israel has strong air power and ballistic missiles, iran not only has a large number of ballistic missiles, it is said that it has more than 3,000 ballistic missiles. this number is not available in many major countries. moreover, the performance of iran's ballistic missiles is relatively good, especially its hypersonic missiles, which the israeli military cannot intercept at all.

again, the scale of combat. if the two sides fight in a small way, such as iran launching about 200 missiles in the early morning of october 2, then the losses on both sides will be relatively limited, and there will be no difference. but if there is a real fight, at this time, iran's numerical advantage in ballistic missiles will come into play and it will have the upper hand.

(iran has the arc of resistance to help)

finally, there is the duration, which is most detrimental to israel. the longer the war lasts, the higher the requirements for each country's comprehensive national strength and national endurance. iran has been subject to various sanctions from the united states and the west over the years, and now the united states is increasing sanctions on iran. whether the war lasts for a short time or a long time, it will have little impact on the iranians. but the israelis can't stand it. if the war lasts for a long time, the domestic economy will definitely not be able to bear it, and the people's endurance will not be that strong.

another point is that although israel has us support, it is basically at the military level and does not help much economically. iran has the support and joint operations of the resistance front, and iran does not need their economic support. however, the resistance front's continued joint attacks on israel will plunge israel into a protracted war, which will further test israel's ability to withstand it. .

(israel may not dare to fall into a long-term war with iran)

based on the above, the author's advice to the israelis is that those who do not retaliate will indeed not gain power, but if they really want to fight, not only will they not be able to achieve the set goals, but they will become more passive and disadvantageous. it is better to retaliate symbolically and painlessly and find a step for yourself. don't feel that you are not good-looking. in the current situation in the middle east, it will be good if you can survive.