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the fed finally "breathed a sigh of relief."

the first major overseas data for the national day golden week holiday has just been released. on the evening of october 4, beijing time, the u.s. department of labor released the non-farm employment report for september, which showed that the u.s. non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 in september, the largest increase since march 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000. people; the u.s. unemployment rate was 4.1% in september, lower than expected and the previous value of 4.2%. in this regard, u.s. president biden said: "the non-farm payrolls report brings good news, but we still have more work to do in reducing costs."

after the data was released, traders directly gave up expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in november and further bet that the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in november and december. it is expected that the cumulative rate of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve in the next four meetings will be less than 100 basis points. basis points. bank of america adjusted its forecast for a fed rate cut in november from 50 basis points to 25 basis points.

the three major u.s. stock indexes collectively opened higher and moved lower. as of 22:50 in the evening, the dow rose 0.12%, the nasdaq rose 0.61%, and the s&p 500 rose 0.32%. chinese concept stocks once again strongly led the way, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index rising by more than 2%, miniso rising by more than 9%, and jd.com and beigene rising by more than 4%.

u.s. non-farm payrolls report for september released

on the evening of october 4, beijing time, the u.s. department of labor released the non-farm employment report for september, which showed that the u.s. non-farm employment population increased by 254,000 in september, the largest increase since march 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000. people, also exceeding the previous value of 142,000.

among them, the private sector employment increased by 223,000 people in september, significantly exceeding the expected increase of 125,000 people. the previous value in august was an increase of 118,000 people.

at the same time, the u.s. bureau of labor statistics revised the number of new non-farm jobs in july from 89,000 to 144,000; the number of new non-farm jobs in august was revised from 142,000 to 159,000.

the report showed that the u.s. unemployment rate was 4.1% in september, lower than expectations and the previous value of 4.2%.

the strong momentum of the u.s. job market is also reflected in wage growth. data released by the u.s. bureau of labor statistics show that average hourly wages in september increased by 4% year-on-year, a new high since may 2024. it is expected to increase by 3.8%, compared with an increase of 3.8% in august.

analysts believe that this employment report alleviated market concerns about the u.s. job market cooling too quickly and significantly weakened the possibility of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

after the employment data was released, traders directly gave up expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in november and further bet that the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in november and december. it is expected that the cumulative rate of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve in the next four meetings will be less than 100 basis points.

swaps market pricing shows traders expect only 27 basis points of rate cuts by the end of november and 55 basis points by the end of the year. that's a sharp retracement from bets before the data were released that expected rates to be cut by 66 basis points for the rest of the year.

"new fed news agency" nick timiraos said that the u.s. non-farm payrolls report in september may close the door for the fomc to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in november, and the rate cut explained may only be 25 basis points.

affected by this, the yield on the 10-year u.s. treasury bond rose to its highest level since august, now at 3.950%; the yield on the two-year u.s. treasury note rose by more than 3.5%, now at 3.845%.

after the data was released, the u.s. dollar index rose in the short term, once reaching a new high since august 16, and is now at 102.50, up 0.5% on the day; the u.s. dollar rose more than 1% against the japanese yen during the day, now at 148.43; the u.s. dollar rose against the swiss franc during the day. 0.67%, currently trading at 0.8587.

analyst audrey said that the employment data just released once again reminded investors that the market has underestimated the u.s. economy. this is a convincingly strong report that puts recent recession talk on hold, which should add to the dollar's strength in recent days. analyst nour also believes that the dollar's rise can continue further after the united states releases shocking employment data.

subsequently, the three major u.s. stock indexes opened higher across the board, but then fell collectively. as of 22:50 in the evening, the dow rose 0.12%, the nasdaq rose 0.61%, and the s&p 500 rose 0.32%. among them, chinese concept stocks once again strongly led the way, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index rising by more than 2%, miniso rising by more than 9%, ctrip rising by more than 6%, and jd.com and beigene rising by more than 4%.

the data the fed is most interested in

it is worth noting that at the september interest rate meeting, the fed adjusted its language, acknowledging that risks to the mission are now "roughly balanced", while also noting that job growth has "moderate" (which the fed had previously described as "weakening"). "). it added that the commission was firmly committed to supporting full employment.

therefore, the market believes that the federal reserve has paid more attention to employment data than inflation data. the recent weakness in the labor market has worried the federal reserve, so the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september. tonight's non-farm payrolls report gave the fed a sigh of relief.

on october 3, local time, chicago federal president austen goolsby emphasized in an interview that the fed’s attention has expanded from focusing on inflation to the job market, adding that he hopes to avoid a further increase in unemployment.

goolsby said u.s. benchmark interest rates will need to be cut "significantly" over the next year.

but after the non-farm data was released, fitch ratings chief economist brian coulton said the fed's concerns about the labor market were clearly exaggerated.

principal asset management analyst seema shah said the fed will have to turn its attention to inflation. the stunning jobs data suggests that the job market may actually be a picture of strength rather than weakness, and it refutes the idea that the fed is considering another 50 basis point rate cut in november. with the federal reserve now easing policy, the risk of a recession has disappeared. the market needs to pay close attention to inflation because there are currently policy risks on both sides of the economy.

annex wealth management analyst brian jacobsen commented on the u.s. non-farm payroll data and said that unless the october report released on november 1 shows a sharp decline, the federal reserve will use this as a reason to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points.

wasif latif, chief investment officer of sarmaya partners, said that september's non-farm payroll data was much stronger than expected, which surprised many people and the market is reducing the extent or number of interest rate cuts by the federal reserve. this may be a case of "good news is good news" for the stock market.

editor: luo xiaoxia

proofreading: li lingfeng