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[global times-global network reporter ding yazhi and zhang yuying] tensions in the middle east have escalated sharply. on the evening of october 1, local time, iran launched a large-scale missile attack on israel. air-raid sirens were sounded almost throughout israel. millions of residents in major cities such as jerusalem, tel aviv, haifa, and beersheba ran to air-raid shelters. the islamic revolutionary guard corps said in a statement that 90% of the missiles launched in this operation successfully hit the target. the israeli military stated that most of the missiles were intercepted and some areas were hit. in response, israel is preparing to take further actions against iran. affected by this, many countries including lebanon, iraq, and jordan announced the temporary closure of their airspace.

on the 2nd, experts interviewed by a reporter from the global times believed that iran’s large-scale raid was a response to israel’s recent squeeze on iran and a retaliatory counterattack. iran does not want a full-scale war to break out. but it may be inevitable that more conflicts will break out in the future.

“demonstrations after repeated harassment”

on the evening of the 1st, iran said it had launched missiles towards israel, targeting three israeli military bases around tel aviv, israel. the islamic revolutionary guard corps said in a statement that the operation successfully hit the military strategic center on israeli territory, and some israeli air force and radar bases were attacked. the statement also stated that despite the most advanced defense systems in the area, 90% of the missiles launched by iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps successfully hit their targets.

iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps wrote in a statement that it carried out the defense "after a long period of self-restraint" in response to the assassination of haniyeh, the former leader of the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas). nasrallah, the leader of hezbollah in asia and lebanon, and senior generals of the revolutionary guards were killed by israel. iran warned that israel would be "devastated" if it counterattacked iran's legitimate defense.

on the same day, iran's permanent mission to the united nations posted on its official social networking site that iran had responded legally, reasonably and justly to israel's "terrorist acts." the tweet stated that if israel responds or takes further malicious actions, iran will take a strong counterattack against it.

the israel defense forces press service stated that iran was not a demonstration attack. each missile was lethal and carried hundreds of kilograms of explosives. thanks to the operation of the air defense system, minimal damage was caused. although a few missiles hit central and southern israel, the impact was minor.

sun degang, director of the center for middle east studies at fudan university, said in an interview with a reporter from the global times on the 2nd that recently, israel has frequently carried out assassinations and targeted killings of hamas, lebanese hezbollah, senior commanders of iran’s islamic revolutionary guard corps, and nuclear physicists. , launched an attack on the houthi armed forces in syria, and israeli prime minister netanyahu’s public statement calling on the iranian people to overthrow the current government further inflamed tensions. after iran's new president pezeshchiyan came to power, he originally hoped to negotiate with the united states on the nuclear issue and improve relations with neighboring countries. however, the tree is still but the wind is not stopping. continuous provocations have questioned iran's leadership position in the resistance front and domestic legitimacy. iran may believe that if it fails to take action, it will face tremendous pressure at home and abroad. therefore, iran ultimately chose to directly attack israel itself to demonstrate its determination and capabilities.

"this is iran's counterattack after being constantly pressured and even provoked by israel." liu zhongmin, a professor at the institute of middle east studies at shanghai international studies university, told the global times on the 2nd that after a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict broke out, the relationship between iran and israel the contradictions continue to deepen. especially in recent times, israel's provocative actions have further aggravated tensions. iran has long exercised restraint, but if it continues, it could damage its influence over hezbollah and hamas and make it difficult to appease the domestic public. therefore, iran's large-scale raid this time is not only a response to israel's recent series of continuous squeezes against iran, but also a hope to reverse the unfavorable situation by confronting israel's provocations in order to maintain its regional leadership and domestic stability.

expert: iran prefers limited counterattack to all-out war

after iran launched missiles at israel, late at night on the 1st local time, israeli prime minister netanyahu claimed: "iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price for it." according to previous reports in the israeli media, iranian missiles struck at that time, netanyahu was urgently convening a meeting of the israeli security cabinet in the bunker.

in the early morning of the 2nd local time, iranian foreign minister araghchi posted a message on social media, warning israel not to take retaliatory actions in response to iran's missile attacks. araghchi said that iran "exercised self-defense" in accordance with article 51 of the united nations charter on the evening of the 1st. this military action was taken after iran maintained great restraint in the past two months and left space for the ceasefire in gaza. . he stressed that iran's military operations have ended unless israel decides to take further retaliatory actions. if israel takes retaliatory actions, iran's response will be more "violent and powerful."

the conflict between iran and israel not only affects the national security of the two countries, but also affects the stability of the entire region. after the "boot" lands, will iran and israel have a formal showdown? in the context of the prolongation of the palestinian-israeli conflict and the renewed conflict between iraq and israel, how will the situation in the middle east evolve?

liu zhongmin believes that although iran's missile attack on israel had a sensational effect, the actual casualties were limited. iran prefers limited counterattacks rather than all-out war to avoid further escalation.

niu xinchun, executive director of the china institute of arab studies at ningxia university, also said that the nature of the iranian raid was more toward symbolic retaliation. he said, "iran can launch hundreds or even thousands of missiles at once. although israel's interception system has a high success rate, it will also be very difficult if it faces thousands of missiles. obviously, iran does not want to comprehensively war breaks out."

the difficulty of balancing u.s. policy in the middle east has increased

the united states issued an alert to israel before iran launched the attack. on the afternoon of the 1st local time, according to reports from cnn, reuters and other media, the united states has publicly announced that iran is preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack on israel. the united states predicts that iran's attack may be similar to the "sincere commitment" attack on april 13, that is, it will use ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the same time. u.s. national security council spokesman sean savit issued a statement on the 1st, saying that u.s. president biden and vice president harris are monitoring iran's attacks on israel in the white house situation room and regularly obtain the latest information from the national security team. biden directed the u.s. military to help israel defend itself against iranian attacks and shoot down missiles targeting israel.

so, what will the united states and the west do next? to what extent will it continue to support israel? when answering a question from a reporter from the global times, liu zhongmin said that the united states faces challenges in its middle east policy. it must maintain comprehensive support for israel while also hoping to avoid being involved in a new round of conflicts, which will affect its middle east strategic contraction and global expansion. the strategic focus has shifted to the situation of great power competition. to this end, the united states has adopted a dynamic military adjustment strategy. whenever the crisis expands, the united states will strengthen its military presence in the middle east, show support for israel, and deter the axis of resistance led by iran. however, as the conflict between israel and iran escalates, it will become increasingly difficult for the united states to balance its policy. israeli prime minister netanyahu's policies tend to be radical, posing problems for the united states. with the u.s. election approaching, the israeli issue has become an important issue in the campaigns of both parties.

niu xinchun said that despite differences between the united states and israel on certain issues, the united states always spares no effort to provide support whenever israel faces threats. currently, u.s. support for israel is mainly focused on defensive measures, while the u.s. position on possible offensive actions by israel is unclear. sun degang analyzed this and said that as the new round of palestinian-israeli conflict is approaching its first anniversary, the situation between palestine and israel has further spilled over and the risk of evolving into a regional war has increased. it is unlikely that a full-scale war will break out next, but multiple conflicts may be inevitable.