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on the evening of october 1, iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles towards israel.

the attack targeted several israeli air bases and intelligence agencies.

iranian missile strikes israel

u.s. intelligence services should have been aware of the situation before the attack. the white house has issued a warning to israel, and of course israel is certainly prepared.

moreover, missiles fired from iran to israel generally take about ten minutes to fly in the air, and most of these missiles are intercepted.

in addition to the israeli air defense system, the united states said that american warships in the region also participated in intercepting missiles; the british defense minister also said that "the british military played its own role" and also helped israel intercept some missiles.

in this case, although some missiles still broke through the air defense network,israelthere was an explosion inside the territory, but the information from israel was,

some facilities were damaged, and no casualties were reported yet.

of course, iran also stated that iran’s attack deliberately avoided civilian facilities to avoid civilian casualties.

so in summary, this time iran launched an attack in retaliation for israel's recent military operations, the assassination of hamas, and the leadership of hezbollah in lebanon. but the retaliation had no serious consequences.

even so, israel's attitude is very tough. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said that iran's attack was "a big mistake" and that israel would take retaliatory measures to make iran feel "pain".

israelis are hiding

judging from the current situation, israel will definitely retaliate.

because in this tense confrontation, public opinion is paying close attention. if one party is attacked and does not retaliate, it will definitely suffer in terms of face.

of course, in more formal terms, this face is called morale and international prestige. it's actually a matter of face.

therefore, israel's military action has seriously hit iran's little brother. if iran does not retaliate, it will lose face and its prestige will be greatly reduced.

israel has been hit by a large-scale missile attack by iran, which will also affect morale if it does not retaliate.

and for israel, this morale and prestige is not just a matter of face. israel's morale and image may be more important to its survival than any other country's.

because israel ismiddle eastthe living environment determines that israel cannot show weakness and israel cannot fail.

if israel shows weakness and fails once, its survival will be greatly threatened and it may cease to exist.

therefore, even if iran's attack does not cause any serious consequences, israel will definitely retaliate.

there are three possible ways for israel to retaliate.

first, assassinate senior iranian generals or other related personnel. especially the senior commanders of the iranian revolutionary guards who were involved in this missile attack.

it may also continue to assassinate some leaders of iran-backed armed groups.

second, bomb iran’s military facilities, including those of some shia armed forces supported by iran. further weakening the strength of the "arc of resistance" organized by iran.

third, if it is more aggressive, israel may bomb iran's nuclear facilities.

although iran has always said that the nuclear projects in its territory are for civilian use and are not intended to develop nuclear weapons, israel is wary of any nuclear facilities in iran.

of course, if israel really bombs iran's nuclear facilities, the situation in the middle east will really escalate.

so when the situation reaches this point, will a full-scale conflict break out between iran and israel, and will the situation in the middle east get out of control?

this mainly depends on the political determination of israel and the united states, especially the political determination of the united states.

u.s. support for israel is important

because currently, from a strategic point of view, israel has two options.

one is that now israel has severely damaged hamas and hezbollah in lebanon, temporarily removing the direct threat to israel and weakening iran's strength in this region. then israel can choose to stop here, slowly cool down the situation, and return to a relatively calm period. if the situation does not change, there may be another large-scale conflict in ten or more years. this has been a cyclical pattern over the past few decades.

another option is to take this opportunity to not only weaken organizations such as hamas and hezbollah, but also to thoroughly attack and weaken iran, its biggest rival.

doing so is of course very risky. but for israel, he may believe that completely weakening iran can greatly improve the security environment.

however, the prerequisite for this is that israel drags the united states into this war. without us support, it would be difficult for israel to completely weaken iran. at present, the decision-making of the united states is very important.

however, the united states must also consider two factors on this issue. first, the russian-ukrainian battlefield is still in a stalemate; second, there are only 30 days until the us presidential election.

so the biden administration may not have the determination. that said, a full-scale conflict in the middle east may not be on the cards yet.

(qian kejin)