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with the killing of lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah, the already explosive situation in the middle east has once again plunged into uncertainty.

recently, nasrallah and many iranian military commanders were killed in israeli air strikes. iran's supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei once said that israel will regret it. more than two months ago, hamas politburo leader haniyeh was assassinated on iranian soil. some western media even said that this was a "gross humiliation" for the iranian authorities and the revolutionary guards. it is unbearable. after "a long period of self-restraint", iran finally took retaliatory action and launched a large number of missile attacks on israel on the evening of october 1.

iranian president pezhiziyan emphasized that iran's move is to let israeli prime minister netanyahu know that iran is not a bellicose country, but it firmly opposes any threats.israelit said that iran will bear the consequences of its actions and that the israeli military "will continue to launch powerful strikes in the middle east tonight."

iran and israel are at war, and the situation has suddenly escalated. where will the relationship between the two countries go? will the situation in the middle east become more chaotic?

panoramic view of the old city of jerusalem on april 14, 2024, local time. according to iran's tasnim news agency, in the early morning of the 14th local time, iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on israeli targets.

occasionally "punched each other", they were once close allies

the world seems to be accustomed to seeing the tension between iran and israel, usually "flexing their muscles" and occasionally "punching" each other, and no one is surprised. but what many people don’t expect is that many years ago, these two countries were very close allies...

israel was founded after world war ii, when iran was ruled by the pahlavi dynasty. both countries were western allies and had tense relations with surrounding arab countries. in this context, israel and iran quickly became close allies.

in 1979, the pro-american and pro-western pahlavi dynasty was overthrown by the islamic revolution. although the newly established islamic republic of iran was ideologically opposed to israel and even closed the israeli embassy in tehran, relations between the two parties did not cool down quickly.

1980,iran-iraq warbreak out. according to the jerusalem post, israel was worried that a victory in iraq would encourage arab nationalism and pose a greater threat to israel. therefore, the then israeli defense minister publicly declared after the war broke out that israel was willing to provide assistance to iran. under israel's lobbying, the united states even acquiesced in israel's provision of u.s.-made weapons and components to iran.

survey data from tel aviv university show that between 1981 and 1983, israel’s total arms sales to iran were approximately us$500 million.

as late as 1987, israel's then prime minister rabin said, "iran is our best friend and we have no intention of changing our position."

but if you use benefits to make a friendship, when the benefits are exhausted, you will scatter.

with the iran-iraq war andgulf warthey ended one after another, iraq's national strength was greatly damaged, the common interests between iran and israel decreased, and the close relationship between the two countries gradually faded.

israel later regarded iran as the biggest threat and cooperated with the united states in putting pressure on iran. the iranian authorities have always insisted on denying israel's policy. after mahmoud ahmadinejad was elected president of iran in 2005, he adopted a tougher stance against israel, and conflicts between the two sides escalated rapidly.

the assassination of iranian nuclear scientists and attacks on sensitive targets such as nuclear facilities have deepened iran's hatred of israel.

syrian civil warafter the outbreak, iran took the opportunity to strengthen its military presence in syria, while israel frequently launched air strikes against suspected iranian military targets in syria to curb the expansion of iranian power in the middle east. in response, iran has increased its support for anti-israel armed factions such as hezbollah and hamas in lebanon.

iran's retaliation is different

since the current round of palestinian-israeli conflict, israel's confrontational posture towards iran has become increasingly escalating.

on april 1, the israeli army air raided the consular department building of the iranian embassy in syria in damascus, the capital of syria, causing the death of zahedi, the senior commander of the "quds force" under the iranian islamic revolutionary guard corps, and his deputy rahimi. 16 people died.

on april 13, iran’s islamic revolutionary guard corpsstrait of hormuza cargo ship was seized. although the vessel is registered in portugal, the main shareholder of the shipping company is israeli. on april 14, iran used a large number of drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles to attack israeli military targets.

five days later, targets in iran were hit by air strikes. although israel did not respond directly, abc and other media reported that the attack was "exactly what israel did."

however, although the conflict in april seemed intense, the responses from both sides were adequate. compared with israel, iran is more restrained.

iran did not choose to attack civilian targets in israel, but only attacked remote military targets, and then quickly stated on social media that "the legitimate counterattack has ended." iran's relatively calm attitude has prevented further escalation of tensions between the two countries.

iran's retaliatory action this time stems from the assassination of hamas leader haniyeh in iran. iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps said it carried out the defense "after a long period of self-restraint" after the assassination of former hamas leader haniyeh.

iran also claimed that this operation was in response to the killings of haniyeh, lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah and senior revolutionary guard generals by israel. the continuous assassinations have posed severe challenges to iran's regional status and image.

cnn reported that "haniya's death is a great shame and humiliation for iran," and even more so for the iranian revolutionary guards, because it is the revolutionary guards who are responsible for protecting haniya.

cnn further pointed out that two senior figures of iran-backed lebanese hezbollah and hamas were assassinated in a short period of time, which dealt a blow to iran's influence in the middle east and its image as a regional power that "can protect its allies."

regarding the attack on the evening of the 1st, cnn pointed out that this attack was twice the scale of iran’s attack on israel in april. if the last attack was for effect rather than impact, this one seems different. the attack came just hours after israel announced a locally limited ground operation in lebanon, which iran viewed as a major escalation of the situation.

however, some media analysts believe that iran will not fall into a trap and provide bait or ammunition for israel to drag the united states into the war. this will benefit israel, not iran.

in fact, whether it was the assassination of iran's chief nuclear physicist fakhrizadeh in 2020 or the israeli attack on iranian embassies abroad in april 2024, iran should have considered this issue when it responded. a spokesman for the iranian government said at the time that iran should not give up its diplomatic efforts because of the murder of a nuclear physicist, and should not fall into a trap or "fall into a trap."

therefore, although iran has already implemented retaliatory measures, there is a high probability that it will be restrained in the future. in this attack, iran only targeted israeli military and security facilities as targets of iran’s defensive missile operations.

however, although iran intends to control the intensity of the confrontation, both iran and israel exert pressure on each other and engage in repeated friction on the brink of war. once a miscalculation occurs, it may lead to very dangerous consequences. cnn believes that no matter what measures israel decides to take to deal with this time, it may shape the next stage of the conflict.

edit:yan jiaxin

editor: wang shanshan