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on september 25, the chinese rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into designated waters in the relevant high seas of the pacific ocean. the missile carried a simulated warhead and was launched into the predetermined waters to complete a routine military mission. this is the first time in 44 years since my country launched the "580 mission" of the "dongfeng-5" intercontinental missile into the pacific ocean on may 18, 1980. in order to commemorate the "580" mission, the launch time was specially set at 8:44.

china conducts intercontinental missile launch. image source: chinese bugle.

behind china's success

according to statistics, the us "minuteman" series of intercontinental ballistic missiles have been launched a total of 319 times in more than half a century, 15 of which failed, with a success rate of 95.3%; the french m51 submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile has been launched a total of 12 times. failed once and the success rate was 91.7%.

the successful launch of the chinese rocket force's strategic intercontinental ballistic missile on september 25th. from a technical point of view, it undoubtedly reflects china's mature control of missile guidance, navigation and control systems, and its ability to successfully conduct full-range missile test launches. , and accurately control the bomb impact point to the preset area, which is crucial to ensuring the effectiveness and deterrence of our country's strategic strike capabilities.

looking back 44 years ago, china's first full-range intercontinental missile test was still in the name of a "launch vehicle." in order to ensure that the data module can be successfully recovered after launch, our country has dispatched 18 ships, including guided missile destroyers, ocean survey ships, supply ships, ocean salvage lifeboats, and 4 "super hornet" ship-based helicopters to form the 580 special mixed formation. . this formation brought more than 5,000 officers, soldiers, and scientific and technical personnel. liu daosheng, then the first deputy commander of the navy, served as the commander-in-chief. today, 44 years later, the entire test-firing process was officially reported by my country as "a routine arrangement of the rocket force's annual military training, which effectively tests the performance of weapons and equipment and the level of troop training, and achieves the expected purpose."

it can be seen that only the enhancement of national strength, the advancement of science and technology, the complete range of industrial categories and the independence of national strategy have led to this perfect full-range test launch of a strategic intercontinental ballistic missile. especially in the context of the current complex and ever-changing international situation, having independent and advanced military equipment production capabilities is of great significance to safeguarding national security and interests. in the future, we may see more similar "military training."

western intelligence agencies judged that the russian rs-28 missile test failed based on satellite images.

in recent years, the number of failed intercontinental missile tests by nuclear powers has increased.

china's successful test launches are hard-won. in fact, the number of failed intercontinental missile test launches by nuclear powers has increased in recent years, and the reasons behind this are multi-faceted.

according to the "reference news network" citing a report from reuters on september 23, some satellite photos from the plesetsk launch test site in arkhangelsk region showed that russia was testing the rs-28 "salmat" missile. encountered launch failure. on the same day, kremlin spokesman peskov responded at a press conference, saying, "we do not have any relevant information. this is an issue within the jurisdiction of the military, so i recommend consulting them." the russian military has not yet responded to external reports.

judging from the photos released by reuters, not only was a huge crater created in the launch silo, but the surrounding facilities were also damaged to a certain extent. after analyzing satellite images, some foreign military experts believe that the area around the missile silo was destroyed, which seems to indicate that the missile malfunctioned shortly after ignition. it is likely that the engine failed to ignite normally while the missile was in the silo or shortly after being ejected from the silo, causing the missile to explode in the silo or fall near the launch silo.

the rs-28 "sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile is russia's latest product in the field of nuclear weapons. because it uses liquid fuel, its launch weight exceeds 200 tons. it can carry 16 sub-guided nuclear warheads with an equivalent of 500,000 tons, and its range can reach 18,000 km, this missile is called "satan ii" in the west. the missile is considered to be the most advanced and powerful liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile in the world.

satellite images show that an explosion occurred at a russian position, indicating a suspected intercontinental missile launch failure.

however, although the liquid fuel used by the rs-28 "sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile has huge advantages in thrust and load capacity, its safety risks cannot be underestimated. the liquid fuel requires complex preparations before launch. and once the fuel is injected into the projectile, it needs to be launched or extracted, otherwise the fuel will corrode the projectile bulkhead. this undoubtedly increases the probability of error. compared with solid fuel missiles, the operational risks of liquid fuel missiles are higher, and this accident is an intuitive manifestation of this risk.

in recent years, the international situation has been complicated and the geopolitical confrontation between nuclear powers has intensified. in order to demonstrate nuclear deterrence, many nuclear powers have launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, but there have been many records of launch failures.

on november 1, 2023, the u.s. "minuteman-3" land-based intercontinental ballistic missile experienced an abnormality during a test launch at the vandenberg space force base in california and was later detonated in the air. on january 30 this year, in the waters near florida, the british nuclear submarine "vanguard" launched a "trident-2" submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. however, the first-stage propeller of the missile did not ignite as planned after launch. as a result, the 58-ton missile fell into the sea near the submarine. at that time, british defense secretary grant shapps and the british first sea lord and chief of naval staff were basically on the "vanguard" nuclear submarine. eight years ago in june 2016, a "trident-2" missile was launched from the british royal navy's "revenge" nuclear submarine. its propeller was successfully ignited, but soon after the missile deviated from the predetermined route. it flew towards the continental united states and initiated the self-destruct procedure for safety reasons. recently, russia's rs-28 "sarmat" blew up its own silos.

it can be seen that even the intercontinental ballistic missiles that have been installed cannot be successfully launched easily. in fact, in the armament research and development process of the five permanent members of the united nations, it is common for strategic ballistic missile launch failures to occur for various reasons. take the recent russian rs-28 "sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile that failed to launch as an example. it is widely speculated that it may be a problem with the silo's ignition system, or due to problems during the fuel filling process, which led to the launch failure. of failure.

compared with the rs-28 "sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile powered by liquid fuel, the united states still test-fires the "minuteman-3" solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile from time to time to show off its muscles, but the reality is that this missile has overdue service. the intercontinental missile is in a serious aging state, and many parts have been discontinued or have no spare parts. therefore, the u.s. air force has spent excessive funds to maintain the "minuteman-3". the u.s. air force must repeatedly inspect the missile before each test launch. the status of components and launch systems ensures the smooth implementation of test launches. the u.s. air force currently has approximately 400 minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles spread across silos in five states. however, the "old" "minuteman-3" has experienced launch failures in 2011, 2018, and 2021.

since the "trident-2" submarine-launched ballistic missile entered service with the british navy in 1994, the uk has launched 12 missiles of this type, but the two launches in 2016 and early this year failed. the main reason is that the "trident-2" was purchased by the united kingdom from the united states. the missile production, manufacturing and shore maintenance are basically carried out in the united states. the british nuclear submarine is only responsible for the final loading and launch. many of the intermediate links are beyond the control of the united kingdom. although the united states will not deliberately sell inferior products to its british "little brother", the united states agreed when selling weapons that the united kingdom must obtain the consent of the united states for launching missiles. and the attack coordinates of the purchased "trident-2" missiles will block the united states mainland and u.s. military bases elsewhere. although the uk has always wanted to pursue strategic autonomy, it has been difficult to achieve complete control over its nuclear power projection capabilities.