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recently, after a series of policy combinations to boost the economy have been implemented, a-shares have gone straight from 2,700 points to 3,100 points; at the same time, there has been a major adjustment in the bond market, and yields have risen rapidly.

as of the close on september 27, the 30-year government bond yield rose 8.5 basis points to break through the key point to 2.32%, the 10-year government bond yield rose 7.5 basis points to 2.17%, and the 7-year government bond yield rose sharply by 10.75 basis points. to 2.0675%.

in terms of interest rate derivatives, on september 27, treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year treasury bond futures recording the largest single-day decline since its listing, with a weekly decline of 3.74%.

in addition, the ultra-long-term treasury bond etf suffered its largest single-day decline since its listing. on september 27, bosera's shanghai stock exchange 30-year treasury bond etf closed down 2.34%; pengyang chinabond-30-year treasury bond etf closed down 2.87%, both of which were the largest single-day declines since their listing.

some investors said that daily fixed-income financial products with a risk level of r1 have been losing money in the past few days.

wind data shows that a total of 741 fixed-income financial management products have experienced a retracement in net value in the past week, 25 of which have a retracement rate of more than 1%, and nearly 30% of which have a retracement rate of more than 0.01%, involving cmb financial management, industrial bank financial management, china post financial management, etc. a number of leading financial management subsidiaries.

industry analysts believe that this round of sharp declines is mainly related to the diversion of funds caused by the hot sentiment in the equity market in the past two days. in addition, the central bank's monetary policy adjustments, including lowering the deposit reserve ratio and reverse repurchase operation interest rates, have also had an impact on the bond market. the fall in the bond market has had a negative impact on the financial management market, and we need to be alert to the risk of a wave of financial management redemptions.

a bank financial investment manager said that the main reason for the obvious redemption of pure debt financial products is not the losses in the bond market, but that many retail customers are attracted by the money-making effect of the stock market and invest their funds in the stock market.

// the bond market may take a breather //

on september 29, as the a-share market was closed, the bond market may take a breather.

in the past few years, bank financial management has been the main source of funds in the bond market, driving the convertible bond bull market in 2021 and the credit bond bull market in 2022. however, as the market environment changes, the main funds in the bond market are also switching. since 2023, the main funds in the bond market have gradually switched to small and medium-sized banks and insurance institutions whose liability side has continued to expand. these institutions' preference for long-term interest rate bonds continues to increase, driving up the valuation premium of long-term interest rate bonds.

september 29th, which falls on a sunday, is not a normal working day for brokerage firms and funds. some traders believe that funds from banks and insurance institutions may return to the bond market.

founder fubon fund believes that the short-term increase in risk appetite in the equity market will suppress bond market sentiment to a certain extent. however, it is difficult for bond yields to rise significantly until the economic recovery trend is stable. after this round of adjustments, outflows from the previous period will gradually begin to intervene, supporting bond market yields.

however, some people in the industry believe that the continued upward trend of the stock market means that the bond market is still under pressure and the downward trend will not change in the short term.

feng lin, director of the research and development department of oriental jincheng, said that considering that a number of incremental policies such as fiscal policy will be introduced one after another, as well as the potential upward momentum of the stock market with policy support, the bond market may face some unfavorable factors in the short term. , manifested by intensified market volatility and soft overall trends.

"in the medium and long term, the trend still needs to observe the effect of the policy. before the effect of the policy appears and leads to a reversal of fundamental expectations, the bond market trend will be difficult to fundamentally reverse, which will also limit the short-term market decline space." feng lin believes.

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