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on thursday, the bureau of economic analysis (bea) of the u.s. department of commerce announced the final gdp value for the second quarter of this year, and also revised upward the adjusted gdp from the second quarter of 2020 to 2023. however, except for the second half of 2023, other periods the correction value has not increased significantly compared with before. banks such as goldman sachs had previously warned that past gdp data would be revised significantly downwards.

why is there such a big difference between goldman sachs’ forecast and bea’s actual results? financial blog zerohoedge believes that the personal income and expenditure of u.s. consumers released this friday can explain why goldman sachs’s downward revision speculation is wrong. the unexpected "boost" to u.s. economic growth came from commerce secretary raimondo's decision to significantly revise two of the most important data sets that underpin the u.s. economy: personal income and personal spending. a month ago, raimondo told the media that she was not familiar with the u.s. bureau of labor statistics (bls), which last month announced a sharp downward revision of 818,000 jobs for the year ending in march.

so, how did the u.s. department of commerce adjust? first, as shown in the chart below, personal income was unexpectedly revised upward by approximately $800 billion, resulting not only from what the u.s. government considered an increase in interest and dividend income, but also from an increase in government subsidies, namely an increase in personal current transfer receipt (pctr) of more than $2,000. billion), and wages and salaries increased cumulatively by $293 billion. overall, personal disposable income was revised up to $21.8 trillion from an annualized rate of just under $21 trillion.

spending figures were also revised upward, but to a smaller extent: personal spending in august was revised up by about $350 billion, to $20.73 trillion from $20.38 trillion in july, reflecting lower spending on goods offset by a sharp increase in spending on services.

to sum up, the result is: after-tax personal disposable income was revised up by 3.8% to us$21.8 trillion, while personal expenditures were revised up by less than half of income, which was revised up by 1.7% to us$20.7 trillion.

zeohedge said that because the difference between personal income and expenditure is also called savings, we can finally figure out why, according to official data, the u.s. economy has miraculously grown over the past few years instead of shrinking further: when a certain report from the u.s. department of commerce bea officials who decided in recent weeks, with the click of a mouse button, perhaps as a political reaction to the sharp job cuts, have made americans suddenly richer, if only in a commerce department spreadsheet.

therefore, the result presented to you by the department of commerce data is that after data revision, based on the revised personal income minus personal expenditures, the revised savings of the american people have nearly doubled, from us$600 billion in july to august. of 1.1 trillion u.s. dollars, and people’s savings surged by 500 billion u.s. dollars in one month.

ultimately, after the correction, the u.s. personal savings rate was adjusted higher.

zeohedge believes that this adjustment is of great significance, because the personal income and expenditures announced just last month showed a red light, warning that consumers' financial health is close to the lowest level in history. this time, after the revision, income in the post-epidemic period assumed trends in , spending and saving make it appear that consumers are looking much healthier than they were last month.

why is this important? because consumers' credit card balances have reached record levels, and various estimates from the federal reserve show that all the excess savings received by consumers during the epidemic have been exhausted. in this case, if personal savings fall to historical lows, that's what economists believe will be the final straw for consumers. in other words, the united states is just one step away from a self-reinforcing consumer-driven recession narrative.

zeohedge complained that now, the u.s. department of commerce’s correction comes just in time. it temporarily masks the rapidly escalating recession narrative and allows data to show that american consumers and families are quite healthy, even if it is only for a few months, and continues until the election. even if this health the status is only the result of mouse click modification.