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i have written two articles about the population data in the yinwan han tomb wooden tablet "ji bu": "can the han tomb "ji bu" prove the effectiveness of traditional chinese medicine?". the article points out that the materials in "ji bu" show that the population mortality rate in donghai county was very high in the late western han dynasty without large-scale turmoil and disasters; "is the elderly population data in the han tomb "ji bu" credible?", the article states. the article points out that there are problems in the "jibu" such as the mismatch between the proportions of the younger and older populations and the irrational internal structure of the older population.

"can han tomb "ji bu" prove that traditional chinese medicine is effective?" the article estimates that the population mortality rate in the taiping area of ​​the powerful dynasty was as high as about 25‰. as a reference, china's population mortality rate in recent years has only been 7‰ to 8‰, which is different from modern times. society's mortality rate is ridiculously high compared to ancient times, which at the very least means that traditional medicine or traditional chinese medicine plays no role in maintaining people's health, if not worse. a very high mortality rate is incompatible with a high degree of aging. in fact, this has falsified the results calculated based on the "ji bu" data: the proportion of the elderly population is abnormally high, coupled with the "han tomb "ji bu" "is the elderly population data in "reliable?" the other two issues pointed out in the article can confirm that the elderly population data in it are not credible.

regarding the cruel significance of the absurdly high mortality rate in ancient times, i partially exposed it in the article "can han tomb "ji bu" prove the effectiveness of traditional chinese medicine?": "to reach the level of donghai county in the late western han dynasty, the mortality rate needs to increase by ten a few thousand points, for today's china, means 20 million more people die a year, or even more. even if a full-scale world war breaks out and multiple large-scale natural disasters and vicious plagues occur at the same time, it may not be able to cause such a result. appalling consequences”, but this is not specific or complete enough.

i have also cited similar examples in modern history to illustrate the problem: "in 1987, when afghanistan was invaded by the soviet union, the mortality rate was around 23‰, which was comparable to donghai county in the late western han dynasty. whoever thinks that the han dynasty or ancient china medical treatment is developed and civilization is advanced. you might as well think about afghanistan in the 1970s and 1980s. the reality of high mortality is so cruel. i don’t think anyone would hope that medical treatment and civilization are advanced to this extent.” but this is not the case after all. without the personal experience of people who have experienced the situation in our own country, it is unconvincing.

next, i will explain the cruel truth of ancient society in detail based on the situation of my country: what does it mean that the death rate in peacetime is as high as 25‰? in recent years, although my country's population has experienced negative growth, it is still no less than 1.4 billion. if the mortality rate is 25‰, it means that more than 35 million people will die in one year. in fact, the mortality rate in 2023 will reach the highest level in recent decades. the new high was only 7.9‰, and the death toll was slightly more than 11 million. according to the mortality rate in the late western han dynasty, it was estimated that about 24 million more people would die every year!

what is this concept? the severe global pandemic of covid-19 in recent years has indeed caused a large number of deaths. some estimates are about 13 million, some are estimated to be around 7 million, and probably around 10 million. note that this is a global total, and it was caused within two to three years. no matter how overestimated it is, the number of deaths caused in china in one year will not exceed 2 million, which is more than one order of magnitude less than 24 million per year!

covid-19 is the most serious disaster in recent times in terms of the number of fatalities. compared with it, some famous large-scale disasters are simply not worth mentioning, and even large-scale wars in history are nothing. in the devastating flood more than 20 years ago, the official death toll was only a few thousand; in the korean war, which lasted for many years in the early days of the founding of the people's republic of china, the number of casualties in china was less than 200,000. it is not easy to kill a large number of people!

an additional 24 million deaths every year means that china will experience more than 5,000 catastrophic floods or fight more than 100 korean wars in a year. it is impossible for a single natural disaster or man-made disaster to cause such serious harm.

only by considering all major disasters together can we imagine the horrific consequences of an additional 24 million deaths per year. an epidemic worse than covid-19 breaks out every season in spring, summer, autumn and winter, killing two to three million people each time, resulting in an additional ten million deaths a year; a natural disaster more serious than a major flood occurs every day, and every day if more than 5,000 people die, that's two million people a year; even if all kinds of super-large natural disasters happen one after another within a year, only 12 million more people will die if the situation is so bad that it's unimaginable.

but this is only half of the imagination of 24 million. to imagine the other half, we can only consider super man-made disasters. the most intuitive of the man-made disasters that can cause a large number of deaths is large-scale war. how terrible a war can it be to add 12 million deaths in a year? assume that civilian deaths and military deaths are equal during the war, with six million soldiers and civilians each dying. just looking at these numbers will tell you how terrible this imaginary war is: currently, our country’s active troops only have about two million, and the military has lost six million. this means that all active duty troops have sacrificed three times within a year.

obviously, it is far from enough to deal with such a war. taking into account injuries and other losses of combat effectiveness, the number of armed forces wiped out is roughly five times the number of deaths. six million deaths means that 30 million people were wiped out in one year. troops, what is this concept? even if the armed police, reserves, and militia are taken into account, the total number of armed forces is overestimated to only more than 20 million. this is a huge number, but millions more people must be recruited to fight to fill the 30 million in one year. gap. is it really possible for it to be so tragic?

even if we consider that our army is extremely powerful and has a tenacious will to fight, and the number of annihilations is only two or three times the number of deaths, the death of 6 million means that more than 11 million troops will be wiped out in a year, which is equivalent to the total number of active duty, armed police, and reserve forces. no longer exists. only when a world war breaks out in an all-round way, and decisive battles occur in all strategic directions of our country, can such serious consequences be possible, and can it be possible to imagine that the war will cause 12 million deaths, with an additional 2,400 deaths. only then did the estimate of 10,000 have clear practical significance.

in modern china, the mortality rate of 25‰ in donghai county in the late western han dynasty means that on the basis of the normal death rate of more than 10 million people, serious plagues and large-scale natural disasters have broken out one after another, and at the same time, the world has been destroying countries. great war. only if these major disasters occur at the same time within a year can it cause the terrible consequences of 24 million more deaths a year. the reality corresponding to a population mortality rate of 25‰ is so terrifying.

the occurrence of so many major disasters at the same time in modern society seems magical in itself, but the real horror is not how terrible the major disasters themselves are. at present, the possibility of so many major disasters happening at the same time is very low. even if unfortunately the extremely low possibility does become a reality, it can be foreseen that there will be a turnaround in the near future or two or three years later, and we can survive the worst. the situation will gradually improve after a difficult year or two.

but you must know that the death rate in donghai county is as high as about 25‰. it is not due to various large-scale disasters that occurred at the same time. the situation shown in "jibu" in the late western han dynasty around 11 bc is true. various common diseases have not yet appeared at this time, and according to the data in "ji bu", the population of donghai county grew rapidly and the acres of land grew faster in that year. i confirmed these in the article "can the han tomb "ji bu" prove that traditional chinese medicine is effective?" situation: looking at the statistics, population production and agricultural production are indeed very good.

when the natural environment and social environment are relatively good, the population mortality rate is equivalent to contemporary china's continuous outbreaks of serious plagues and large-scale natural disasters while engaging in a nation-destroying world war?

it seems that the desperate situation in ancient society was not caused by abnormal circumstances such as wars, plagues, and natural disasters, but was a normal situation caused by internal factors in society. in other words, compared with contemporary china, there is no difference between the normal operation of ancient society and the endless huge compound disasters. the real frightening thing about ancient society is that year after year has passed, and the situation has not improved at all and there is no possibility of improvement.

in fact, it is more likely that natural and man-made disasters will occur from time to time to make the situation worse. good years mean the compounding of various large-scale disasters. compared with contemporary society, there is no difference from hell on earth. in addition, even one abnormal catastrophic factor will turn hell on earth into purgatory on earth. if there was any change in ancient society, it was the transition between hell and purgatory. thousands of years of ancient chinese history were nothing more than that.

therefore, i never believe in the existence of a peaceful age. when i hear someone say that life in ancient times was not as bad as modern people think: at least the peaceful age can be lived without large-scale wars and disasters, i will think of the words in "jilu" the mortality rate is as high as 25‰. this number alone means that it is impossible to live.

new china rarely experienced such a high mortality rate. the only time the population death rate reached this level was only in 1960. that's right! during the three-year difficult period from 1959 to 1961, only one year's situation could be compared with the peacetime period in ancient times. the mortality rate in 1959 and 1961 was 14‰ or 15‰, which was much better than in ancient times. considering the average situation, the mortality rate during the three-year difficult period is 18‰ or 19‰, which is less than 20‰!

the peaceful and prosperous times of ancient times cannot be compared with the three years of difficulties. in other words, it is an unrealistic praise of ancient society to have a living condition that has reached the level of the three years of difficulties. this is the cruel truth of ancient times revealed in "jibu". the peaceful and prosperous times are far inferior to the difficult period of new china when natural and man-made disasters gathered. at best, it can only be compared with the most difficult period of the three-year difficult period in 1960. can it be compared? getting by is still a problem.

those who think life in ancient times is acceptable may wish to ask their elders: how did they live during the three difficult years? if you can't even endure these three years, then the prosperous times of ancient times will be worse than these three years. how could life possibly bear it? if it were 1960 every year, i'm afraid even survival would be a problem! but this was the normal state of peace in ancient times, and even the normal state of 1960 can be regarded as an overly optimistic estimate.

the mortality rate of 25‰ or 26‰ in 1960 is a national figure, and the estimated mortality rate of 25‰ or 26‰ in "can the collection book of han tombs prove the effectiveness of traditional chinese medicine?" is only the data of donghai county, not the whole country of the western han dynasty. sexual data. in the late western han dynasty, the situation in donghai county was quite good nationwide. "can the collection book of han tombs prove the effectiveness of traditional chinese medicine?" estimated that the natural population growth rate of donghai county was around 10‰, while the national population growth in the late western han dynasty was the population growth rate of donghai county is much faster than the overall growth rate of the western han dynasty.

the same article calculated that the lower limit of the birth rate in donghae county is 31.76‰. in fact, the birth rate in this county should be significantly higher than this number. however, since the population of donghai county is growing very fast, much faster than the overall growth rate in the western han dynasty, it should be acceptable to assume that the overall birth rate in the western han dynasty is 31.76‰. of course, the overall birth rate is entirely possible to be higher; in the same article, i also estimated the birth rate in the late western han dynasty. the upper limit of the natural growth rate of the national population is 4.63‰. the birth rate minus the natural growth rate is the death rate. the nationwide population death rate in the late western han dynasty was greater than 27‰; in fact, the death rate is entirely possible to reach 28‰ or higher: if the birth rate is reasonably assumed with a natural growth rate of 34‰ and a natural growth rate of 4‰, the mortality rate has reached a terrifyingly high level of 30‰.

once again, although social problems were very serious in the late western han dynasty, the common national natural and man-made disasters in the last years of the dynasty did not occur during this period. the population growth was slow but indeed growing steadily. "the han dynasty alone was destroyed by force" can also explain the western han dynasty. the national power of the dynasty did not decline significantly, and it was generally tolerable: major disasters occurred after wang mang usurped the throne, at least twenty years before and after 11 bc when "ji bu" was written.

but even in this era when there were no natural or man-made disasters and the country remained strong, the population mortality rate in the western han dynasty reached a terrifying level. it was the worst year that new china has ever experienced. various large-scale natural and man-made disasters occurred at the same time, but the situation was relatively good. the peaceful times in ancient times were not as good as the modern catastrophes. even the super compound catastrophe imagined earlier in this article had a death rate that was several thousandths of a point lower!

even if we imagine that contemporary china is experiencing successive outbreaks of serious plagues and large-scale natural disasters while engaging in a world war that will destroy the country, the death rate will only reach 25‰. millions more people will have to die before the death rate can reach the level of ancient peace. the level of scenery. with the situation being so bad every year, people have to hope that no additional disaster will make the situation worse. in fact, it is common for expectations to fail.

compared to the cruel truth of ancient times, at least my imagination has been completely exhausted. the vicious plagues and large-scale natural disasters i imagined were unrealistic in terms of harm and frequency. in my hypothetical war to destroy the country, tens of millions of armed forces will be wiped out in one year. but if you look at these numbers, you will understand that even if you have the ability and determination to carry out such a war, other countries will not follow you. in a war, even if several big countries unite together, a country will lose millions of armed forces. no country can bear such a heavy loss in one year.

they are all unrealistic assumptions, but they still cannot reach the level of ancient peace years. i really can’t imagine what kind of disaster could happen that would cause millions more deaths in a year. but looking at the mortality rate, this is just a normal situation in ancient society, so what exactly did the ancient people experience? what happened in ancient society that caused people's lives to be so bad under normal circumstances that modern people can't even imagine it?

some people think that the population explosion caused people to fall into abject poverty. however, it is generally accepted that the population explosion occurred during the prosperous period of kangxi and qianlong in the qing dynasty. the population increased rapidly from tens of millions to 340 million. however, i calculated the mortality rate based on the " "jibu" records the data of the western han dynasty. even if it is believed that there was a population explosion in the middle and late ming dynasty, it has nothing to do with my calculation results. it is too far off. and although the han dynasty had a large population, even at its peak the country's population was only 50 to 60 million, which was not much compared to the land area of ​​5 to 6 million square kilometers.

the population density is only about ten people per square kilometer. even if the effective territory is considered to be about the same as the qin or song dynasty, it is still three million square kilometers. the population density is overestimated to only twenty people per square kilometer, which is about the same as that of the qin dynasty or the song dynasty. it was also relatively low compared to the ming and qing dynasties. the extremely poor living conditions of the people in the han dynasty really had nothing to do with overpopulation, but were caused by other internal social factors, which could not be changed by changing dynasties.

actually, i don’t want to say how bad the han dynasty was. even during the republic of china, the population death rate was estimated to be around 30‰, which was no better than before the han dynasty. even after almost two thousand years, the numbers have not changed much. there is reason to believe that the situation during this period was similar to that in the previous era. the troubled times should be worse. the relatively peaceful northern song, ming and qing dynasties had a significantly larger population than the han dynasty, and the people's the living conditions cannot be better.

the tang dynasty and the han dynasty are both called "han and tang". they were powerful and had a larger area, but their population was not significantly larger than that of the han dynasty. the yuan dynasty had the most vast area but not a large population. so is it possible for these two dynasties to be larger than the han dynasty? what's better? during the zhenguan period, some people maimed themselves in order to avoid doing corvee service. during the kaiyuan tianbao period, even before the anshi rebellion broke out, people were already "frozen to death" on the road. the so-called prosperity of the world is nothing more than the ruling class desperately squeezing the common people to accomplish great achievements. , there is no qualitative difference between the people in the troubled times and the end of the world in terms of the fact that the people are in dire straits: it is not surprising at all that the literati of the yuan dynasty lamented, "in prosperity, the people suffer; in death, the people suffer."

i still feel like i haven’t said it right! don’t people suffer when there is neither prosperity nor decline? what is reflected in "jibu" is exactly the era when the western han dynasty was not prosperous but not destroyed. the entire article discusses how bad the situation of the people of donghai county was, and the overall situation of the western han dynasty will only get worse. while the people have been in dire straits, the "collection" is still bragging about political achievements to the superiors. the word "duoqian" often appears in it. it seems that as long as you talk about how much the population, household registration, and land have increased compared with before, the people will not be able to make a living. can the problem be ignored? praising suffering and sin as merit is the cruel truth of ancient society.