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the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work.

regarding the current economic situation, the meeting pointed out that the fundamentals of our country's economy and favorable conditions such as a vast market, strong economic resilience, and great potential have not changed. at the same time, some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation. it is necessary to look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly, face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and effectively enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency to do a good job in economic work. it is necessary to seize key points and take proactive actions to effectively implement existing policies, step up efforts to launch incremental policies, further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures, and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

emphasis on “creating a good environment for the development of the non-public economy”

the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to help enterprises tide over difficulties and further standardize enterprise-related law enforcement and regulatory behaviors. it is necessary to introduce a private economy promotion law to create a good environment for the development of the non-public economy.

this is another high-level emphasis on promoting the development of the non-public economy. teng tai, president of the wanbo new economic research institute, told the paper that the politburo meeting made it clear that it was necessary to further standardize law enforcement and regulatory behaviors involving private enterprises, which is to protect private enterprises and prohibit some unfair activities against private enterprises for the sake of non-tax income. normal law enforcement behavior. "we must not conduct abnormal law enforcement on private enterprises to obtain some non-tax revenue for the sake of short-term interests. this phenomenon occurred in some places some time ago, and it also caused a deterioration of private economic expectations in terms of public opinion."

on july 13, 2023, in yichang, hubei province, workers were busy on the production line of the yellow peach deep processing workshop of qugu international agricultural group in zigui county. visual china data map

the research department of cicc believes that this meeting emphasized "the need to help companies tide over difficulties and further standardize corporate-related law enforcement and regulatory behaviors" and respond to market concerns from two levels: positive encouragement and negative prohibition. compared with the october 2018 political the “research and solution of difficulties encountered in the development of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises” proposed by the bureau meeting is more clear and clear.

luo zhiheng, chief economist and director of the research institute of guangdong securities, suggested that in the future, efforts need to be made from the perspective of institutional guarantees and efforts at the levels of policy, system, and rule of law to create a good environment for the development of the private economy. first, before the introduction of policies involving directional adjustments, we must fully listen to the opinions of entrepreneurs, set a timetable and road map to avoid excessive policy swings, and at the same time introduce positive and negative cases of political and business relations to clear up chaos and set examples. the second is to formulate a negative list to allow entrepreneurs and investors to put aside their psychological baggage and invest. the third is to improve the system construction, especially to systematically sort out laws and regulations such as the anti-unfair competition law and the anti-monopoly law to avoid replacing the system with policies. the fourth is to implement the rule of law and put the spirit of the central government into practice, standardizing the behavior of both market entities and administrative law enforcement agencies, and ultimately forming stable expectations.

this meeting once again made it clear that the private economy promotion law will be promulgated. in august this year, zhao chenxin, deputy director of the national development and reform commission, stated at a press conference of the state council information office that for the private economy, the opinions and supporting measures to promote the development and growth of the private economy will be fully implemented. currently, the national development and reform commission is working with multiple departments to formulate the private economy promotion law protects the property rights of private enterprises and the rights and interests of entrepreneurs in accordance with laws and regulations, improves the institutional mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major national strategies, and solves some urgent, difficult and anxious problems faced by business entities in terms of market access, factor acquisition, and fair law enforcement. .

"the purpose of the introduction of the private economy promotion law is to protect the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises in accordance with the law and promote the development and growth of the private economy." teng tai said that many contents of this law should restrain public power, mainly targeting those who may infringe the interests of private enterprises. improper law enforcement. "we believe that with the promulgation of the private economy promotion law, some abnormal law enforcement and supervision phenomena involving private enterprises will be prohibited, which will help improve the business environment of the private economy."

pay more attention to the combination of "promoting consumption" and "benefiting people's livelihood"

the meeting pointed out that promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihood should be combined to increase the income of low- and middle-income groups and improve the consumption structure. it is necessary to cultivate new consumption formats. it is necessary to support and regulate social forces in developing the elderly care and childcare industries, and to improve the fertility support policy system as soon as possible.

zhong zhengsheng, chief economist of ping an securities and director of the research institute, believes that compared with the politburo meeting held on july 30 this year, which proposed that "the focus of economic policies should shift more to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption," this time the meeting paid more attention to the linkage between consumption, people's livelihood and income.

zhong zhengsheng believes that the current consumption-promoting policies focus on subsidizing the consumption of durable goods, and there are two problems. first, the increase in current consumption actually overdraws future demand and growth space. second, the policy only supports some commodities, and consumption of other commodities that do not enjoy policy subsidies may be "crowded out."

teng tai believes that in the future, a certain scale of consumer vouchers, consumption subsidies, and cash subsidies may be issued to low- and middle-income people. "first of all, the group is mainly low- and middle-income people, and then it is to benefit people's livelihood and promote consumption. this is not simply to send money to save, but to promote consumption, which not only increases the income of low- and middle-income people, but also helps boost consumption and expand domestic demand.”

zhong zhengsheng believes that subsequent consumption promotion policies will be optimized and upgraded, and there are three adjustments to the idea. first, expand the scope of policy subsidies, support smaller and sticky service consumption, and increase subsidies for commodity consumption. the second is to focus on key groups, accurately deploy consumption subsidies, and achieve an organic combination of policies to promote consumption and benefit people's livelihood. the third is to give full play to the enthusiasm of local governments, comprehensively consider factors such as the permanent population and regional gdp, allocate funds to various regions, encourage local governments to issue consumer vouchers, relax restrictions on the withdrawal and use of provident funds, etc., explore personalized consumption support policies, and establish consumption-promoting policies. policy evaluation mechanism to commend and promote policies that work well in practice.

will incremental fiscal policies be introduced?

in terms of fiscal policy, the meeting emphasized the need to increase countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and effectively do a good job in the "three guarantees" work at the grassroots level.

zhong zhengsheng pointed out that the meeting focused less on fiscal policy. "since the beginning of this year, fiscal support for economic growth has not been as good as the budget arrangements at the beginning of the year." zhong zhengsheng said that he believed that there is still the possibility of increasing fiscal incremental policies in the future. in terms of the amount of funds, in order to make up for the gap in fiscal revenue reduction, it is expected that it may be necessary to issue another 1 trillion to 2 trillion ultra-long-term special government bonds within the year. if we take into account the current pressure on the financial sustainability of local governments, it may be necessary to have larger transfer payments from the central government to local governments, so that local governments can "load lightly" and then "get ready to go." in terms of fund use, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds can provide more support for real estate acquisition and storage, the issuance of consumer subsidies, and investment in the public sector. some key projects can be provided with interest discount support from the central government.

teng tai believes that next, in essence, the current fiscal policy is in a major transformation stage, that is, from construction finance to people's livelihood finance. “in the process of industrialization and urbanization in any country, if the fiscal policy wants to implement countercyclical controls, the main purpose is to increase investment in infrastructure projects.” however, after this stage, when urbanization and industrialization enter the later stages, the infrastructure when it is relatively complete, or even in surplus, if the economy encounters an economic downturn, fiscal policy will need to be stepped up, and the direction of the effort will shift from large-scale infrastructure construction to people's livelihood, that is, people's livelihood finance. "whether it is increasing social security expenditures, whether it is old-age care, childcare, or distributing money, consumer vouchers or consumption subsidies to low- and middle-income people, are all centered on improving people's livelihood, so we can expect that this round of counter-cyclical regulation will increase. , in a few years, china’s fiscal policy will also complete the structural transformation from construction finance to people’s livelihood finance.”