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cailianshe news, september 26 (reporter gao yanyun)on september 26, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. compared with previous meetings, what policy changes were there at this political bureau meeting? the chief executives of several securities firms made in-depth analysis.

first, the timing of this politburo meeting has attracted widespread attention from the market.

guo lei, chief economist of gf securities, said that the politburo meeting at the end of september to study economic work is not a routine matter, and it itself shows the importance attached to current economic work.

yang fan, chief macro and policy analyst at citic securities, and others mentioned in a research report that according to previous policy rules, the politburo meetings in september usually discuss the economy less, but this meeting focused on analyzing the economic situation, which may reflect the decision-makers' emphasis on increasing macro-control efforts and strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments.

secondly, the politburo meeting rarely proposed to "work hard to boost the capital market."

zhang jun, chief economist and director of the research institute of galaxy securities, believes that "working hard to boost the capital market" is more proactive than the previous "activating the capital market" and pays more attention to protecting the wealth effect of residents.

qin tai, assistant chief macro analyst and director of huajin securities research institute, said that this shows that the policy importance of the capital market, as a comprehensive reflection of the confidence of economic entities and the main financing channel for new productivity, has been further enhanced.

guo lei said that the capital market was mentioned again as a key issue, which shows that the policy attaches great importance to its function as a capital hub and expectation guide. the "policy bottom" has been basically confirmed.

third, the tone set by the politburo meeting on the real estate market was very clear, and the meeting pointed out the need to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize."

zhang jun said that "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" puts forward higher requirements for stabilizing the property market compared with the previous "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market".

yang fan and several chief executives of citic securities said that logically this will help alleviate the drag on residents' consumption willingness caused by factors such as falling housing prices and existing mortgage loans.

overall, the sell-side research is generally positive. guo lei believes that this is a clear signal that countercyclical policies are expected to continue to relay and refuel in the air.

huang wentao, chief economist of cicc, said that this politburo meeting fully demonstrated the central government's firm attitude towards stabilizing growth and significantly boosted market expectations. it is expected to inject more liquidity into the market, promote industrial integration, and improve market pricing efficiency.

guo lei: countercyclical policies are expected to continue

guo lei mentioned in the research report that there are eight aspects worthy of attention.

first, the politburo meetings are usually held in late april, late july, late october, and early december. the politburo meeting at the end of september to discuss economic work is not a routine. the fact that it is held in september itself shows the importance attached to the current economic work.

second, the meeting pointed out that "we should earnestly enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency in doing a good job in economic work". this is a clear signal that after the package of policies on september 24, countercyclical policies are expected to continue to take over and refuel in the air.

third, the meeting also stressed the need to increase the intensity of fiscal and monetary policies. regarding fiscal policy, increasing the intensity corresponds to the fact that fiscal policy will play a more important role, and policy space will continue to expand. regarding monetary policy, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and implement a strong interest rate cut."

fourth, it is worth noting that the package of policies on september 24 not only includes marginal easing of monetary policy, but also marginal adjustments to financial policy. the adjustment of monetary supply and financial policy is expected to bring about changes in the subsequent increase in loan volume.

fifth, the politburo meeting set a very clear tone on the real estate market, pointing out the need to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize."

sixth, the capital market was once again mentioned as a key issue, which shows the policy’s emphasis on its function as a funding hub and expectation guide.

seventh, some other measures are aimed at micro-expectations, including "helping enterprises tide over difficulties".

eighth, the political bureau meeting on september 26 further confirmed the start of a new cycle of stabilizing growth.

zhang jun: this time the statement of "striving to boost the capital market" is more proactive

zhang jun and the macro research team of galaxy securities published a research report, putting forward views on six major aspects of this politburo meeting.

first, we must face up to difficulties and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks. generally speaking, economic work is not the main topic of the september politburo meeting. the fact that the september politburo meeting focused on the current economic situation has demonstrated the authorities' determination to stabilize growth.

second, the word "stabilization" is the top priority, and there have been substantial changes in the policy statements in some areas. "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" has put forward higher requirements for stabilizing the property market compared with the previous "promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market". "striving to boost the capital market" is more proactive and pays more attention to protecting the wealth effect of residents compared with the previous "activating the capital market".

the third is to strive to boost the capital market and guide social security, insurance, and financial management to "invest long-term". this time, the statement of "striving to boost the capital market" is more proactive and pays attention to the possibility of the introduction of a stabilization fund.

fourth, stabilize housing prices, reduce inventory, and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

fifth, we will increase counter-cyclical regulation, strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policies, and make fiscal policy "ready to go", and there is still room for monetary easing. the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to issue and use ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds well", and there is still the possibility of issuing more ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and special bonds this year.

in addition, broad fiscal policy is still expected to increase, and attention will be paid to the restart or establishment of policy-based financial instruments, which will be used for the three major projects or to revitalize local stock assets. monetary policy is expected to continue to exert its strength, mainly to form a synergy with fiscal policy. there is still room for a 25-50bp reduction in reserve requirement ratio, a 10-20bp interest rate cut possibility, and the smooth release of incremental fiscal tools through the sale of treasury bonds.

sixth, promote consumption and benefit people's livelihood, pay attention to consumer vouchers and increase income of low- and middle-income groups. the meeting also emphasized that "we must strengthen assistance and support for low-income people". according to the deployment of the third plenary session of the 18th cpc central committee, we must increase residents' property income through multiple channels and effectively increase the income of low-income groups.

citic securities: monetary policy easing may intensify

yang fan and several chief analysts mentioned in a research report that the september politburo meeting to analyze and study the economic situation was relatively rare, reflecting the decision-makers' emphasis on increasing macro-control efforts and strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments.

the focus of subsequent fiscal policies may shift toward supporting middle- and low-income groups and boosting consumption upgrading trends. the shift in spending focus will help improve the efficiency of fiscal stabilization of growth.

in terms of monetary policy, this politburo meeting called for "lowering the deposit reserve ratio and implementing a forceful interest rate cut", and the subsequent policy easing may be intensified.

the meeting called for promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. considering that the adjustment of the real estate market has a certain inertia, the time when the policy will take effect still needs to be observed.

the meeting also made arrangements to boost the capital market, support private enterprises, and stabilize employment. it suggested continuing to pay attention to documents and laws such as the "guiding opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market" and the "private economy promotion law" that are about to be implemented, as well as policy measures to help college graduates and key disadvantaged groups find employment.

finally, the meeting called for action and unity of purpose. it is expected that the exemption and fault tolerance mechanism will be improved in the future to fully stimulate the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of the whole society in promoting high-quality development.

huang wentao: strengthen confidence, build consensus, and policies can be expected

huang wentao said that this politburo meeting echoed the press conference on "financial support for high-quality development" held by "one bank, one bureau, and one commission" on september 24, fully demonstrating the central government's firm attitude towards stabilizing growth and significantly boosting market expectations. it is expected to inject more liquidity into the market, promote industrial integration, and improve market pricing efficiency.

first, the overall tone of the meeting was positive and proactive, further emphasizing the necessity and urgency of policy efforts; second, in terms of real estate policy, it proposed for the first time that "we must promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize"; third, in terms of enterprises, it emphasized that "we must help enterprises tide over difficulties and further standardize law enforcement and regulatory behaviors involving enterprises"; fourth, with increasing residents' income and promoting employment as the focus, efforts will be made to protect people's livelihood and promote consumption; fifth, the capital market will be boosted, and medium and long-term funds will be vigorously guided into the market; sixth, the reform spirit of "emancipating the mind, practicing first and trying first" was highly affirmed, formalism was rectified, and the burden on the grassroots was reduced.

huang wentao said that the proposals put forward at this meeting to lower interest rates and reserve requirements, reduce interest rates on existing mortgage loans, promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies are basically consistent with the policies released earlier by the central bank and the china securities regulatory commission. it particularly pointed out the need to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily advance public fund reform, clear the bottlenecks in the entry of social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds into the market, and study and introduce policy measures to protect small and medium-sized investors. it put forward more detailed requirements for capital market reform. it is expected that the government will inject more sufficient liquidity into the market, promote industrial integration, and improve market pricing efficiency.