manulife fund: the central bank's "combination punch" boosted the market, which is good for pro-cyclical products such as finance and real estate
2024-09-25
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on september 24, 2024, the state council information office held a press conference on financial support for high-quality economic development. the press conference announced a number of major policies, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 20 basis point policy interest rate cut, a reduction in the interest rate on existing mortgage loans, and a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans.
since the beginning of this year, the stock market as a whole has faced certain pressures, and the market trading volume has also declined to a certain extent. there is a certain lack of incremental funds and the overall stock game in the market. boosted by this news, under a series of policy combinations, incremental funds rushed into the market in the afternoon of the 24th, core assets ushered in a long-awaited outbreak, and the market rebounded sharply. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 4.15% to 2863.13 points, the shenzhen component index rose 4.36%, and the chinext index rose 5.54%. the a-share turnover for the day was 974.76 billion yuan, a 4-month high.
manulife fund believes that this policy is quite powerful. from the perspective of monetary, real estate, capital market and other policies, a package of stimulus policies is expected to increase risk appetite and improve market sentiment. after the monetary policy shift, we can still expect fiscal, consumption and real estate-related policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize economic growth.
specifically, these policies include: a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of funds, and there is still an expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the future; a 20bp cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate omo, and an expected 30bp reduction in the mlf. both the loan market benchmark rate lpr and deposit rates are expected to be lowered; a cut in the interest rate on existing mortgage loans: the overall mortgage loan stock is about 38 trillion yuan, and it is expected to save 150 billion yuan in interest each year, an average reduction of 40bp; the national minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes is unified at 15%, and local governments can independently determine the policy based on their own conditions.
at the capital market level, the press conference announced that the central bank created two financial instruments (swap facilities and repurchase and increase holdings refinancing), with a total of 800 billion yuan in the first phase (500 billion yuan in the first phase of swap facilities and 300 billion yuan in special refinancing), and there is still an expectation of further increase, all of which will be used for stock market purchases, increase holdings and repurchases. at the same time, the governor of the central bank mentioned the stabilization fund and said it was in the research stage. the china securities regulatory commission further supports central huijin to increase its holdings and expand its investment scope.
in this regard, manulife fund believes that the reserve requirement ratio cut will help ease the cost pressure of financial institutions; the interest rate cut is expected to reduce the financing cost of the real economy; the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates will help ease the repayment pressure of residents; although the interest rate cut has an impact on the loan yield of banks, the governor of the central bank has clearly stated that the deposit interest rate is expected to be reduced simultaneously to hedge, which is conducive to the stability of commercial banks' interest rate spreads and reasonable profits. the reduction of the down payment ratio for the second set of real estate can reduce the threshold and difficulty for residents to enter the market. the newly established capital market tools are innovative tools, and it is expected that the relevant support will also have strong sustainability, which is of great and positive significance to the stability of the stock market and the introduction of long-term funds.
which sectors will benefit from the "combination bond" policy? manulife fund said that specific measures such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, real estate, and capital markets are more beneficial to economic cyclical sectors that have seen significant valuation adjustments due to the decline in economic fundamentals in the previous period, such as finance, real estate chains, consumption, some commodities, and hong kong-listed hang seng technology. with the continued introduction of subsequent policies, the market rebound is expected to continue, and the valuation recovery of related products can be expected.
based on a global vision and overall thinking, manulife fund has built a diversified and sophisticated active investment platform. at present, manulife fund's equity investment and research team's products cover a variety of types, including high dividend strategy, information technology innovation strategy, upstream cycle theme strategy, science and technology innovation board theme strategy, pharmaceutical theme strategy, broad-based strategy, etc., providing investors with more diversified asset allocation solutions.
this policy releases long-term liquidity and is expected to benefit the performance of core a-share assets. manulife csi 300 index fund (class a 162213/class c 003548) is an index enhancement fund that passively tracks the csi 300 index. its style is mainly "large-cap blue chips" and it invests in china's core assets with one click. wind data shows that manulife csi 300 index enhanced has outperformed the csi 300 index and performance benchmarks every year since its transformation in 2018. as of september 23, liu yang, the manager of manulife csi 300 index a fund, has achieved a tenure return of 41.12% since taking over management on january 9, 2019.
manulife market value preferred hybrid (class a 162209/class c 021062) is a hybrid fund. fund manager zhuang tengfei selects high-dividend companies based on the big financial sector, builds dividend base assets, and actively seeks "offensive" assets in the cyclical sector, striving to continuously exceed the performance benchmark. wind data shows that this year, as of september 23, manulife market value preferred hybrid a has a yield of 12.94%, ranking 29/4128 in the same category.
looking ahead, manulife fund believes that the policy attitude clearly reflects the care for the market. it is expected that the valuation level, activity level and risk appetite of the capital market will usher in a phased recovery during the policy window period, but the sustainability of the rebound will require continued tracking of whether there will be further increases in relevant policies such as fiscal, consumption, and real estate, and it is also necessary to observe changes in economic fundamentals.
note: the risk level of manulife market value preferred hybrid fund is r3-medium risk, and the risk level of manulife csi 300 index fund is r3-medium risk. this rating is the rating of the fund manager, and the specific sales shall be subject to the rating of each agency.
manulife csi 300 index enhanced (class a) was transformed from teda manulife csi wealth large-cap index securities investment fund and was officially transformed on march 16, 2018. the fund performance benchmark before the transformation was: 95%×csi wealth large-cap index yield + 5%×interbank deposit rate; the fund performance benchmark after the transformation was: csi 300 index yield*95%+interbank deposit rate*5%. the current fund managers of this fund are liu yang (january 9, 2019 to present) and li tingting (july 30, 2024 to present). the fund managers after the transformation were yang chao (20141013-20190128). the performances in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 were 44.44%, 39.84%, -0.03%, -19.6% and -9.24% respectively. the performance benchmarks in the same period were 34.16%, 25.87%, -4.85%, -20.58% and -10.79% respectively. the data are derived from the regular reports of this fund.
risk warning: the above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. the past performance of a fund does not indicate its future performance. funds are risky and investment should be cautious. when investing in funds managed by fund managers, investors should carefully read the "fund contract", "trust agreement", "recruitment instructions", "fund product information summary" and other documents and related announcements, truthfully fill in or update personal information and check their own risk tolerance, and choose fund products that match their risk identification and risk tolerance.
