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[text/observer network xiong chaoran] the us-japan-india-australia "quadrilateral security dialogue" (quad) summit held this weekend in delaware, the hometown of us president biden, is the last quad summit that biden will attend and host during his tenure, and therefore has attracted much attention.

bloomberg reported on september 21 local time that the biden administration, which had previously struggled to deal with relations with china, is increasing pressure on china. as he is about to leave the white house, biden is preparing to take action to complete actions against china that have been brewing for months or years. at the same time, he aims to use the so-called "intensive diplomacy" to promote cooperation in other areas without catching china "off guard."

on the same day, politico reported that as biden's iconic "foreign policy legacy", the white house strongly denied that quad was a tool for the united states to restrict china in the "indo-pacific region". us president's national security advisor sullivan declared on the same day that the quad summit actually had nothing to do with any other country and was not targeted at any particular country.

however, politico reported that shortly after the start of the quad summit, when the participants thought that the reporters could no longer hear the content, the media captured us secretary of state blinken announcing the first topic of the summit - china. reporters outside the venue also heard biden claim that "china continues to be aggressive in the south china sea, the east china sea, south asia and the taiwan strait" and that the united states believes that china's recent behavior is a "tactical shift, not a strategic shift."

"this undermines the credibility of these public comments (sullivan's related remarks)." the report also directly believes that biden convened the leaders of three other countries to hold a quad summit before this year's us presidential election, with the goal of thwarting the so-called "china threat" without further angering china. considering that some us officials also claimed that "concerns" about china will become "a focus of the agenda", the hong kong "south china morning post" quoted analysts on september 20 as saying that this move "will almost certainly anger china."

according to bloomberg, sullivan introduced some of the agenda of the quad summit on september 21 local time, including that the leaders of the four countries will announce a "cancer moonshot" (the "cancer moonshot" is a scientific research strategic goal announced by former us president obama during his tenure, aimed at accelerating cancer research.), expand an initiative to prevent illegal maritime activities, plan to pre-deploy relief supplies throughout the "indo-pacific region" to better respond to disasters, and announce the first joint coast guard mission.

while acknowledging that china’s actions in the “indo-pacific region” are an issue discussed by quad, sullivan still claimed that quad’s work should not be seen as “targeting china.”

he told reporters: "the purpose of (forming) quad is not to come together around china or any other country, but to come together around how to build a 'free and open indo-pacific region'. these issues are put on the agenda because they are related to a 'free and open indo-pacific region'. china is not the focus of quad, and quad is not targeted at any one country."

sullivan said so, but the news disclosed by politico has already shown that this summit is aimed at china. politico reported that in addition to the words of blinken and biden being captured by reporters and cameras, the summit is expected to announce relevant policies, claiming that this will "prevent china from taking more radical actions against its neighbors."

the report said that the leaders of the four countries attending the meeting are expected to issue a strongly worded statement "implicitly criticizing china". another senior us government official claimed on september 20 local time that this statement may be the strongest statement issued by quad on the south china sea issue.

although senior biden administration officials have claimed that quad is only a "partnership" and is not aimed at china, lisa curtis, an asia policy expert at the center for a new american security (cnas) and a former u.s. government official, believes that the new quad maritime security initiative will send a "very strong signal" to china.

the south china morning post said that analysts expect the summit to agree on measures that "will almost certainly anger china", as can be seen from the joint statement issued after the quad foreign ministers' meeting in july this year. the statement did not name china, but said it was "serious about the situation in the east china sea and the south china sea" and reiterated "strong opposition to any unilateral action that attempts to change the status quo through force or coercion".

farwa aamer, director of the south asia program at the asia society policy institute, said: "saturday's summit may further reiterate what was discussed during the foreign ministers' meeting or build on it to achieve more concrete results, but this remains to be seen."

"while challenges will come and the world will change... quad will continue to exist," biden said at the beginning of the summit. politico reported that this was the fourth offline summit since the quad mechanism was restarted, and biden specifically chose the venue in his hometown, wilmington, delaware, about 160 kilometers north of the capital washington. as biden is about to end his term, he is trying to put a "strong end" to the alliance between the four countries.

it is worth noting that as both us president biden and japanese prime minister fumio kishida are about to leave office, this will be the last meeting between the current leaders of the four countries of the united states, japan, india and australia. what results can be achieved by this summit hosted by a us president who is about to leave office, and whether quad can maintain its influence in the future, or even whether it will "exist in name only", has become the focus of attention from the outside world.

politico believes that biden and kishida are about to step down, and australian prime minister albanese will face pressure to run for re-election in the future, which has indeed brought an atmosphere of uncertainty to the progress of the quad summit. in particular, the expectation that trump may return to the white house in the future has increased the concerns of the four countries. therefore, biden's main goal this time is to show that the "bond" of the four quad countries can be maintained for a longer time.

to calm those concerns, in a public photo of the four quad leaders, biden put his arm around indian prime minister narendra modi and said: "it (quad) will continue after november."

in fact, in the eyes of experts, india is the "most unpredictable" member of this alliance. geostrategic analyst imran khalid said that although washington always tries to get new delhi to stand on its side on global issues, the latter often weaves an independent course of action and even clashes with it on policies on key issues such as the russia-ukraine conflict. he believes that india's "strategic desire" is to use its relationship with the united states to seek benefits for itself. the website analysis of the australian think tank lowy institute for international policy also pointed out that these differences undermine the concept of strategic alliance.

bloomberg also believes that it remains to be seen to what extent biden can unite his partners. sushant singh, a lecturer at yale university, said: "modi can't provide much help in the security field against china because this will further anger china."

as the fourth quad summit, it was originally india's turn to host it. however, biden canceled his visit to australia in may last year due to domestic debt negotiations, which led to the cancellation of the quad summit that was originally scheduled. india's original plan to hold the summit in january this year was postponed because biden "had no time to visit" on the grounds that it was the 2024 election year.

mira rapp-hooper, senior director for east asian and oceanian affairs at the national security council, said indian prime minister narendra modi "generously agreed" to swap hosts after biden decided not to seek re-election.

as a senior white house official said, biden incorporated a lot of "personal touches" into this "final summit": he arranged bilateral meetings with leaders of various countries at his private residence in wilmington. biden has already met with australian prime minister albanese in the evening of the 20th local time, and will hold similar meetings with kishida and modi on the 21st.

the australian broadcasting corporation (abc) reported on september 21 that quad was originally established in response to the 2004 indian ocean tsunami and was later restored by the trump administration in 2017. after biden took office, he upgraded it to a "regular meeting" leaders' summit to help counter china's growing influence in the "indo-pacific region" and is the main focus of the us government's "indo-pacific strategy." in recent years, this mechanism has also made frequent small moves in substantive areas such as the military.

regarding the "quadrilateral security dialogue" mechanism among the united states, japan, india and australia, the chinese foreign ministry has previously stated that china has always believed that any regional cooperation mechanism should not target third parties or harm the interests of third parties. creating closed and exclusive "small circles" targeting other countries goes against the trend of the times, runs counter to the wishes of regional countries, is unpopular, and is doomed to fail.

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