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according to xinhua news agency, hezbollah confirmed on the night of the 20th that its senior military commander ibrahim aqil was killed in an israeli attack on the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon. that afternoon, explosions were heard in the southern suburbs of beirut. the israeli defense forces issued a statement saying that it had carried out a "targeted attack" in beirut. some israeli media said at the time that the target of the israeli attack was a senior official of hezbollah.

the israeli defense forces announced on the evening of the 20th that israeli warplanes carried out a "targeted strike" on beirut that day, killing aqil, a senior commander of the radwan force, an elite unit of hezbollah in lebanon, and several other commanders of the unit. israeli military spokesman hagari issued a statement saying that "aqil and other commanders of the radwan force are the masterminds of hezbollah's attack on northern israel."

at the international relations forum of the 8th taihe civilization forum, wu bingbing, director of the center for middle east studies at peking university, told the paper (www.thepaper.cn), "the new round of israeli-palestinian conflict has lasted for nearly a year, and it is clear that the operational goal set by israel to 'eliminate hamas' has not been achieved. from the perspective of the netanyahu government, if it wants to keep the 'battle' going, it needs to expand the goals of its military operations. therefore, this new 'war goal' against the north is to create a new confrontation with lebanon, or even a conflict."

expanding the "war goal"

on september 17, the israeli security cabinet updated its "war objectives" and added the content of "bringing the evacuated residents in the north back home safely". after that, communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in lebanon on the 17th and 18th. the lebanese ministry of public health said on the 19th that the explosions had killed 37 people and injured 2,931 people. in recent days, the israel defense forces and lebanese hezbollah armed forces have engaged in relatively fierce exchanges of fire in the area around the temporary border between lebanon and israel.

according to reuters, on thursday night (19th), the israeli army launched the most intense air strikes on southern lebanon since the outbreak of the conflict nearly a year ago. the israeli defense forces reported on the 19th that since the afternoon of that day, the israeli army has launched air strikes on about 100 rocket launch sites and other infrastructure of the lebanese hezbollah armed forces, including about 1,000 launch devices. the israeli army also attacked hezbollah armed forces' weapons storage facilities and other targets in southern lebanon that day. the lebanese hezbollah armed forces also released a comprehensive battle situation late on the 19th, saying that on that day, they launched 17 strikes on targets such as israeli military headquarters in many places in northern israel, causing casualties among israeli military personnel.

in a speech on the afternoon of the 19th, nasrallah, the leader of lebanon's hezbollah, said that israel's "crossing all red lines" was equivalent to declaring war and would be "severely liquidated and justly punished." nasrallah said that hezbollah had suffered a heavy blow, but would not stop fighting until israel stopped its "aggression" against the gaza strip.

just one day before nasrallah's speech (18th), the israeli army announced that the 98th division of the idf had been deployed to northern israel to deal with the tensions on the border between israel and lebanon. on the same day, israeli defense minister galant announced that "a new phase of the war is beginning" and that the israeli military's military focus is shifting to the northern border.

in wu bingbing's view, "israel's expansion of the scope of the war is to form a strong support for the continuation of its military operations in the domestic and international environment." he further analyzed that, on the one hand, the netanyahu government needs to explain to the israeli people what "results" it has achieved in the military operations against hamas in the past year; on the other hand, netanyahu needs to "explain" to the international community that there are "legitimate reasons" to expand the form of war - that is, israel's northern region is threatened.

as the ceasefire negotiations between israel and hamas have reached a deadlock, the explosion of lebanese communication equipment has once again aroused international concerns about whether the situation between israel and lebanon will evolve into a full-scale conflict. as early as june this year, the israeli military approved a plan to launch a military operation in lebanon. therefore, some analysts believe that if the explosion of lebanese communication equipment was indeed caused by israel, it means that israel has long been prepared for a war with hezbollah in lebanon. amin saikal, emeritus professor of middle east and central asian studies at the australian national university, analyzed that the pager explosion "is likely to be a prelude to israel's full-scale attack on hezbollah."

but wu bingbing believes that "israel has always defined the conflict with lebanon as a conflict between israel and hezbollah, and israel does not want to expand its military operations to an uncontrollable scope."

according to cctv, citing analysis by local lebanese media, the explosion of communications equipment caused great losses to hezbollah personnel and organizational systems in lebanon, and was even more humiliating. hezbollah is bound to retaliate against israel. however, due to the large gap in military strength between the two sides, hezbollah still hopes to maintain a certain degree of deterrence against israel in the face of losses in its command system, rather than engaging in a full-scale conflict with it.

military forces are dispersed, and "war goals" may be difficult to achieve

according to reuters, galant held a meeting with senior israeli military officials on the 19th to assess the country's military operations on the northern front and said, "this is a new stage of the conflict, with great opportunities but also great risks. hezbollah in lebanon feels the pressure from the israeli army, and our military operations will continue." galant said that as time goes by, hezbollah in lebanon will pay an increasingly high price. he also stated that israel will continue to work hard to return the detained personnel and "eliminate hamas."

the wall street journal pointed out that it is generally believed that israel's operation against hezbollah's communications equipment has achieved short-term tactical success, "throwing the enemy into chaos and incapacitating thousands of fighters". a series of attacks, including this operation and the recent assassinations of hezbollah and hamas leaders, have re-established the "frightening reputation" of israel's military and intelligence agencies. but at the same time, the question that has sparked heated debate in israel is whether this will help israel win a "victory".

israel's jerusalem post quoted sources as saying that as the israeli army shifted its attention to fighting hezbollah in the north, its activities in the gaza strip were limited to targeted attacks on hamas commanders and other personnel and the destruction of their infrastructure. the report said, "the israeli army could not give a convincing answer as to how these actions would force hamas to release the remaining detained israeli personnel."

wu bingbing holds a similar view. he analyzed that israel's recent military actions are a dispersion of the country's military power. "if israel maintains military power in gaza and the west bank at the same time, and also launches military strikes against lebanon, it may increase the difficulty for israel to achieve its established 'war goals'."

on september 18, local time, the united nations general assembly adopted a historic resolution at its 10th emergency special session to discuss the palestinian-israeli issue, with an overwhelming majority, demanding that israel end its illegal occupation of palestinian territory within 12 months. the resolution was voted on by 124 votes in favor, 14 against, and 43 abstentions. the united states and other countries voted against, while china voted in favor.

china's permanent representative to the united nations, fu cong, said that ending the occupation is not a choice, but israel's legal obligation. the occupation will not make israel safer, but will only breed more hatred and confrontation, and sow the seeds of unrest in the entire middle east. china urges israel to listen to the strong voice of the international community and immediately end its illegal occupation of palestinian territory.

in this regard, wu bingbing said that the international consensus has been fully expressed through the resolution, but the biggest challenge at present is still the israeli government. "the netanyahu government's primary consideration is the existence of its own government and its understanding of israel's national interests. therefore, the impact of this resolution on israel may not be direct and obvious."